the peak of oil production is approaching, heading for gas but with 80% fewer methane emissions by 2030

All eyes are on TotalEnergies, now facing double pressure. Already singled out by many environmentalists because of its greenhouse gas emissions (437 million tonnes of CO2 in all last year), the French major is indeed also singled out because of its presence in Russia. , in particular for having kept its shares in the gas giant Novatek. And for good reason, the company has bet on the country of Vladimir Putin to deploy its strategy in liquefied natural gas (LNG), in order to accelerate on this hydrocarbon which is less polluting than oil or coal.

Because its CEO, Patrick Pouyanné, firmly believes in the potential of fossil gas to ensure the transition of his company to “net zero emissions” in 2050. “ It’s a transition fuel, and LNG must drive growth “, he thus argued Thursday during a presentation to investors. Unveiled in May 2021, its diversification plan, which had resulted in the change of name from Total to TotalEnergies, therefore remains, broadly unchanged, despite the war in Ukraine and the surge in hydrocarbon prices. In other words, for build a multi-energy strategy ”, the company still plans to ensure that half of its sales come from fossil gas by 2030, in addition to renewables and oil.

“According to Patrick Pouyanné, if we want to succeed in getting out of oil, we have to turn to renewable energies but also to gas. LNG therefore represents a major activity in its plan towards the transition, and disengaging from it today is not at all in line with its long-term strategy! “, slipped in early March a source close to the company to La Tribune.

Supply diversification

In concrete terms, to grow in LNG, the company no longer intends to inject new capital into Russia, and in particular into the titanic Artic LNG2 project which should produce nearly 20 million tonnes of LNG by 2023 and in which TotalEnergies is a shareholder up to 21.64% overall. On the contrary, the management intends to diversify its sources of supply, thanks to a ” large portfolio “, argued Patrick Pouyanné, before citing Cameroon, Nigeria, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea and Yemen.

« A just transition means supporting the EU’s net zero emissions ambition, while meeting energy demand in emerging countries “, defended the Director of Strategy and Economic Intelligence of TotalEnergies, Helle Kristoffersen.

War in Ukraine: TotalEnergies’ exposure in Russia is “very manageable”, assures its CEO

A new commitment has also appeared: that of reducing methane (CH4) emissions by 50% in 2025 compared to 2020, and by 80% in 2030. The main constituent of natural gas, CH4 has a warming power 25 times higher than that of CO2 over a hundred years. To avoid leaks in the facilities, TotalEnergies, which claims to have already halved these emissions since 2010, has thus argued that it would improve them.

Finally, the group’s overall emissions, direct and linked to suppliers (scope 1 & 2), will have to drop by 40% in 2030 compared to 2015, the company recalled.

Fewer emissions from oil combustion

The situation is nevertheless different for scope 3, that is to say the emissions associated with the use of TotalEnergies products (what emerges when oil is actually burned in a car, for example). In 2021, 400 million tonnes of CO2 were released by the group’s customers. And in 2030, Total simply sets itself the objective of arriving at a number less than 400 million ».

However, and this is new, scope 3 emissions linked solely to oil will decrease by “ more than 30% by 2030 ” all over the world, assures the group. “ It’s absolutely huge “, insisted Helle Kristoffersen. Nevertheless, the company has no plans to immediately disengage from black gold, since production should reach its peak in 2025, before ” decline from 2030 “. Still, in relative terms, the share of this hydrocarbon in total sales has already fallen, since it fell from 65% in 2015 to 44% in 2021, and should reach 30% in 2030.

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Giant CO2 sinks in the North Sea

To limit the warming of the atmosphere due to the combustion of its oil, TotalEnergies is relying, among other things, on the deployment of CO2 capture technologies, which should be able to absorb 50 to 100 million tonnes of its emissions by at 2050.

« It is necessary to achieve net zero emissions “, underlined Patrick Pouyanné, joining the conclusions of the IPCC on the subject.

In Norway, Total thus holds a 33% share in the Northern Lights gigaproject, which aims to enable the transport, reception and sequestration of CO2 in geological layers buried at around 2,600 meters in the North Sea. And hopes that it will be able to capture up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year by 2025, then 5 million in 2030. But it is also investing in the Netherlands, in the Aramis project, which should allow to transport CO2 to underwater storage sites in former gas wells, also in the North Sea.

However, for the time being, many uncertainties remain on the future industrial success of these giant CO2 sinks, and on their real capacity to capture millions of tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, in order to avoid too much great warming of the atmosphere, the consequences of which would be catastrophic.

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