The French have not yet had time to look into the presidential election of April 10 and 24 that some of its actors are already looking at the next stage. Why else would elected officials from the Les Républicains (LR) and National Rally (RN) parties join Eric Zemmour despite his (very) slim chances of victory? Why would the left persist in its disunity when the polls promise its multiple candidates a score of less than 10%, or even 5%? Why, finally, the former Prime Minister, Edouard Philippe, or the President of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region, Laurent Wauquiez, two men as ambitious as they are methodical, would have decided to pass their turn during this election? The explanation lies in one word: recomposition. The key to the future, according to all these protagonists.
The latter indeed expect that the wrecking ball activated in 2017 by Emmanuel Macron will return today to complete its clearing of the political scene. If the promise of ” exceeding “ right-left divide applied by the Head of State has shaken these two pillars of public debate, the recomposition of the offer still remains “unfinished”, as noted by the Deputy CEO of Ipsos, Brice Teinturier. « The smashing of the Socialist Party and the LRs by Emmanuel Macron did not go to the end. The traditional partisan organization has been turned upside down but there are still elements that hold up”, recalls the pollster. And this applies in particular to the right, which has managed to more or less maintain its positions during the local elections, and clings to the hope of winning the presidential election thanks to the LR candidate, Valérie Pécresse.
A defeat of the president of the Ile-de-France region in favor of Emmanuel Macron – scenario anticipated for the time being by all opinion studies – would redistribute the cards. Especially in case of elimination in the first round.
Hypothetical “union of rights”
In this hypothesis, the LR leaders fear that the President of the Republic will constitute at their expense a government of national unity, which would complete the siphoning operation initiated with the appointment of Edouard Philippe at Matignon, five years ago. . The latter, through his new party, Horizons, dreams of being the pivot of this seesaw movement. “The recomposition of the right is one of the two major challenges of this presidential, analyzes the former Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, who has just published a book dedicated to Eric Zemmour (Zemmour the anti-republican, editions of the Observatory). If Valérie Pécresse is not in the second round, the LRs will explode; and even more if it is Zemmour who is qualified. The other big issue is whether the national-populist bloc becomes de facto the only alternative, which would be very dangerous for our democracy. »
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