In anticipation of important US economic data, according to calculations by banks and brokerage houses, the Dax will start a little lower today – around 16,100 points. On Tuesday he closed 0.8 percent up at 16,152.61 points.
Market participants do not see an end to the rally on the European stock exchanges. However, the market is likely to become more picky and no longer buy everything en bloc.
In the USA, a preference for economic and financial stocks became apparent the evening before, combined with pressure on technology stocks. Traders assume that the “inflation trade” will return, with the interest rate trend moving more into focus. Even the head of the Minneapolis Fed, Kashkari, now regards inflation as underestimated; he is considered a “dove” in monetary policy.
In Europe, however, this is only expected to be milder, as the ECB continues to ignore the rapid rise in inflation and is not yet planning any rate hikes. The focus of the economic data is on the revisions of the purchasing manager indices (PMI) from Europe and the USA for the service sector. It is particularly curious to see whether the German index will be revised upwards “as usual” or whether the momentum for recovery will decrease here.
The upcoming numbers from the private US employment agency ADP give a foretaste of the official data on Friday. Experts expect 400,000 jobs to be created in the US private sector in December, after an increase of 534,000 in the previous month. “The labor market data are the most important indicator to estimate whether the US Federal Reserve will implement its interest rate hikes planned for 2022,” wrote the analysts of the asset manager Blackrock. Brokers expect further information from the transcripts of the latest Fed deliberations, which will be published in the evening (CET).
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