The decomposition of the Soviet Union also brought about the disappearance of the Warsaw Pact, the NATO version of the communist countries from central and eastern Europe. Currently, all these countries -except Russia- are part of the Atlantic Alliance (Albania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania).
The fall of the USSR also led to the emergence of 15 independent republics, including Ukraine and Georgia. The western region of Ukraine was already then supporter of integration with Western Europe. The eastern part of the country, for its part, was betting on closer ties with Russia.
At the NATO summit held in Bucharest in 2008, the Atlantic Alliance was open to incorporating Ukraine, as well as Georgia, into the military organization. The intention of the Atlantic Alliance was already considered by the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, a “direct threat”.
What was the moment of maximum tension?
Heir to two great empires in disgrace, that of the tsars and that of the USSR, Putin has always aspired to regain power, prestige and influence Russia, lost after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. To achieve this, it has tried to keep its area of influence as far away as possible from any Western influence.
The revolt that started in November 2013 in Ukraine in favor of a democratic regime without the tutelage of Moscow led to the fall of the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, and the rise to power of the pro-Europeans, Putin interpreted the rebellion as a hostile act encouraged by Western foreign forces. The Russian president responded a few months later with the invasion and subsequent annexation of Crimea by Russia. The territory belonged to Ukraine since in 1954 the then Soviet president, Nikita Kruschev, gave the peninsula to the then Soviet republic in commemoration of the 300th anniversary of its accession to Russia.
At the same time, tensions arose between the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, where three quarters of the population is Russian-speaking, and the pro-European government in Kiev. The conflict leads to civil war fueled by the military intervention of Russia. The armed conflict between the Ukrainian government forces and lRussian-backed separatists It has caused more than 14,000 deaths.
Why has the conflict intensified now?
Relations between the United States and its allies and Russia have deteriorated in the last two years. Moscow’s accusations about its alleged meddling in the US elections or Moscow’s support for President Lukashenko’s fierce repression in Belarus are among the factors that have contributed to the deterioration. The Russian Government has received as punishment strong economic sanctions. Internally, Putin has lost popularity and has had to face massive demonstrations against his regime over the past year, whose most emblematic figure is Alexei Navalni, arrested after returning from Germany where he recovered from poisoning.
Putin does not want his ‘zone of influence’ to be invaded and demands that Western expansion towards territories that border Russia, such as Ukraine, be stopped and that the countries that were part of the Warsaw Pact leave NATO. The city of Narva, in Estonia, is 170 kilometers from St. Petersburg. The Russian president wants to recover the lost space.