The entire economy will ultimately benefit from the vaccination campaign. However, some sectors depend directly on the vaccine to restart.
The vaccination race is on. In France as elsewhere, the challenges are health but also economic. According to cabinet projections Asteres, the deployment of a vaccine from mid-2021 would allow, in France, a rebound of nearly 5% this year. “A six-month delay in the administration of a vaccine would cut French GDP by 60 billion euros over two years and widen the public deficit by an additional 30 billion euros», Explains the firm. In this context, certain economic sectors have an almost vital interest in making this vaccination campaign a success. Here are five of them.
Transportation by air
The pandemic brought this sector to a halt, which in 2020 experienced its worst crisis since World War II. “The airline sector was one of the very first to be impacted, because it is the sector of international flows. But the Covid has generated a withdrawal into oneself and a reduction in the flow of people», Decrypts Paul Chiambaretto, professor at Montpellier Business School and director of the Pégase Chair, dedicated to the economy and management of air transport. “The main obstacle to the recovery is uncertainty. It is disastrous for air transport, which needs visibility for planning, aircraft management, fare management. The vaccine is therefore eagerly awaited as a way to restore some certainty and stability», Explains the researcher.
The pace of vaccine deployment will depend on the stable reopening of borders and therefore air resumption. The most likely scenario, according to the Eurocontrol organization, is that of a progressive vaccination of the population by summer 2021 and the end of the epidemic in summer 2022. Air traffic would then reach half of its level of 2019 this year and would return to its pre-crisis level in … 2026. This recovery could also be accompanied by the establishment of a vaccination passport or a “travel pass», as Iata suggests. «The vaccination record already exists in some Asian and African countries. This should not necessarily discourage travelers, especially foreigners. Especially since the desire to travel is there»Assures Paul Chiambaretto.
Like the airline industry, the tourism sector has had a cataclysmic year due to traffic restrictions. In France, the pandemic has caused tourism revenues to fall by 41% to 89 billion euros in 2020, or 61 billion euros in shortfall. And the industry has been living on a drip for months. Some professionals, like those in the ski lifts in ski resorts, are desperately waiting for a reopening date.
The equation is therefore simple: if the French and foreigners can travel freely again, then the sector will restart. For this, the vaccine will play a key role. “There will be no resumption of tourism without reducing the health risk. So this necessarily involves mass vaccination», Confirms Didier Arino, Managing Director of Protourisme. According to Asterès, a vaccine administered massively at the end of the second quarter will allow activities linked to tourism a rebound of up to 40% in 2022. One unknown remains: the introduction of a vaccination passport. “I believe that in the coming months, a number of destinations will not be accessible to us without vaccination“, Warns Didier Arino.
The hotel and catering industry
Like transportation and tourism, the hotel and restaurant industry suffered last year and continues to suffer from the uncertainties surrounding its recovery. In France, the government has let it be known that no restaurant opening is possible before mid-February. For their part, hoteliers suffer from the low occupancy rate. Some have not reopened their doors since last March.
The success of the vaccination campaign, which should unlock travel and allow meetings in closed places, is therefore vital for this sector. “The vaccine is one of the elements that will make it possible, in the medium long term, to return to a situation of greater serenity in relation to this disease. It is therefore indeed an important factor of hope.», Confirms Alain Faveau, president of Sunêlia campsites. The hotel and catering industry “will be much more efficient from the second half of 2021, because the vaccination of populations at risk allows a return of expenditure“, Believes Euler Hermes in a study on the impact of the vaccine on the economy.
In a column published recently by The Parisian, some 200 artists declared their intention to be vaccinated. They hoped to set an example and encourage the French still reluctant to take the plunge when the time came. The approach had a clear goal: to recall the urgency, for the culture sector, to emerge from the epidemic. Theaters, cinema or even performance halls are in fact completely at a standstill with no reopening date set.
The success of the vaccination campaign is therefore seen as the only way out of the crisis. “Today, there is no other possible way (…) If we don’t do nothing we’re never gonna get away», Confided to Parisian Stanislas Nordey, director of the National Theater of Strasbourg, at the origin of the call of the 200 artists in favor of vaccination.
The petroleum sector
The success of the vaccination campaigns, which should allow a return to a normal situation in terms of the flow of goods and people, is eagerly awaited by professionals in the oil sector. During the first confinement, last spring, the abrupt halt in mobility brought oil prices to abysmal depths. The barrel of WTI, the American benchmark, notably plunged below zero dollars. Never seen.
Since then, prices have risen again. The increase accelerated at the end of last year at the rate of announcements on vaccines and decisions of OPEC. Over the past three months, WTI and Brent, a European benchmark, have risen nearly 30% and are trading above the $ 50 mark. They drag in their wake the price of fuel in France. “The current crisis is a mobility crisis. However, oil demand comes from cars, trucks and planes. The vaccine opens up prospects in terms of demand so the markets want to believe it», Recently explained to Figaro Malik Zetchi, financial analyst at Pictet Wealth Management. “It has to work. A fiasco in these vaccination campaigns could destabilize this recovery», He concludes.