It was discovered recently, but it has already given a surprise: the asteroid 2023DW It will come dangerously close to Earth in about two decades. So much so that this rock, the size of an Olympic swimming pool, has a one in 600 chance of colliding directly with our planet, according to NASA revealed.
This object is the only one on the US space agency’s risk list that scores 1 on the Turin Scale, a metric for categorizing the risk of an object hitting Earth. All other bodies, at least for now, have a rating of 0 on the scale. But while that’s a higher-than-average level of risk for near-Earth asteroids, NASA warns that it’s still a “very small chance” of impact. Furthermore, that level of risk is expected to decrease as clearer observations of the asteroid become available.
Detected for the first time on February 27, the asteroid called 2023 DW, which measures about 50 meters in diameter, is estimated to come very close to Earth on February 14, 2046; As of March 8, the Near-Earth Object Coordination Center The European Space Agency predicted a 1 in 625 chance of a direct hit, though those odds are recalculated daily.
“Often when new objects are first discovered, several weeks of data are needed to reduce uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits in the future,” NASA tweeted. “Orbit analysts will continue to monitor asteroid 2023 DW and update predictions as more data comes in.”
But what if it happens?
However, if the worst forecasts came true, what would happen? A direct impact from a rock that size would not be as catastrophic as the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, which was about 12 kilometers long. However, 2023 DW could still cause serious damage if it landed near any major city or densely populated area. For example, a meteorite less than half the size of 2023 DW exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013, generating a shock wave that damaged thousands of buildings and injured about 1,500 people, as well as causing extensive damage to thousands of buildings.
While an impact with 2023 DW is extremely unlikely, humanity is not sitting idly by. Last week, NASA scientists published five studies confirming that the DART mission successfully altered the trajectory of a small asteroid after crashing a spacecraft directly into it. Follow-up missions are currently working to further refine the effectiveness of this planetary defense.