If, like almost half of the French, you are planning to be vaccinated against Covid-19, perhaps you have already asked yourself the question: when will it be my turn? Two researchers from Lyon have developed a simulator allowing you to know the date on which you can expect to receive your dose of vaccine.
Barely a month after the start of the vaccination campaign against Covid-19 in France, some vaccination centers are already full. If Olivier Véran assured Thursday, January 21 that the government will be ” able “ to vaccinate 70 million people by the end of August, the question still arises, for non-priority audiences, when.
In this sense, two researchers from the National Institute of Applied Sciences in Lyon have developed a simulator allowing each individual, depending on his age, state of health or even his profession, to precisely discover his place in the vaccine queue, and therefore the date on which he can expect to receive his dose of vaccine.
Three phases of vaccination in France
The vaccination campaign against Covid-19 has been launched in France for almost a month. If it only concerned residents and health professionals at risk and over 65 years of age in nursing homes last December, it has now entered its phase 2, advanced by almost two months to silence the criticisms wiped by the government on the slowness of its progress.
Since January 4, nearly 14 million people are affected by this vaccination campaign, “Having an age-related risk factor or chronic pathology” as well as “Certain health professionals”.
“Non-priority” people should be contacted. “From the end of spring”, even if the 50 million people concerned will again be placed in priority categories.
First, “People aged 50 to 64, which is a significant part of the population”, thus indicated Olivier Véran Wednesday December 16, 2020. Then, “Professionals in sectors essential to the functioning of the country in an epidemic period” such as sectors “Security, education, food”, “Vulnerable and precarious groups, as well as the professionals who take care of them, people who live in confined accommodation or closed places”.
Will come next “The rest of the adult population”, he concluded.
“People want more information”
To this calendar of stages, we must also add the thorny question of the geographical areas concerned and the places available at the time of each phase to vaccinate a particular population.
In short, if the calendar presented by Jean Castex and Olivier Véran is relatively clear, the fact remains that it does not allow each individual to know exactly when he can actually be vaccinated.
So to remedy this, Salam Mubarak, researcher at the National Institute of Applied Sciences in Lyon, and his colleague Maciej Kowalski, have decided, as they told Lyon news, to develop a simulator inspired by the one created in England by Steven Wooding, an English physicist, who “Created an algorithm to determine when the British can get vaccinated”.
“It’s in the general interest of the population to know that, and then there is curiosity. I think people want more information, more transparency. “In short,” we facilitate and condense information “, they explained in particular.
Data calculated in real time
To allow each French to have a more precise idea of his place “In the vaccine queue”, without claiming to be a medical support, Salam Mubarak and Maciej Kowalski relied on figures from INSEE, the High Authority for Health, Ipsos, statements from the scientific council, statements from the Minister of Health (cited above) and covidtracker.fr.
Using these statistics, the two researchers were able to develop their algorithm able to estimate the date on which each French person could have access to the vaccine against the Covid-19, taking into account the age, the place of residence, the state of health, but also the estimated time (at the moment where you perform the simulation) of the duration of the vaccination campaign and the vaccine approval rate in the population. Its name: Tail calculator for the vaccine in France
Thus for a young 27-year-old female student, in good health, who is not pregnant and who has not been in high-risk contact with people infected with the coronavirus, the simulator indicates that there is between “20,804,000 and 30,604,000 people” in front of her in the queue, on Friday January 22, to receive a vaccine in France. In short, this young woman should wait at least until 11/10/2021 and at the latest until 03/27/2022 to receive her vaccine.
In the case of a 50-year-old doctor in high-risk contact with people carrying the coronavirus, the delay decreases sharply, “Between 0 and 924,000 people” in front of him in the queue to receive a vaccine in France, allowing him to receive his first dose of vaccine before 04/02/2021.