Top Ten Brokerages: Long Window Continues Stock Game Evolution to Incremental Market Evolution, RMB Appreciation Helps Rebuild Bull Market_Sina Finance_Sina.com


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[One week strategy for top ten brokers]Long window continues!The stock game is evolving to the incremental market, waiting for the follow-through capital to enter the market

  Wang Lulu

  CITIC Securities: Steady upward, focusing on growth

  Looking forward to June, CITIC Securities believes that with the further cooling of global commodities, the high point of inflation expectations has passed, and monetary policy constraints at home and abroad have gradually eased; macro-liquidity has been loosened and internally stabilized, market liquidity has improved, and foreign capital has flowed in. Or continue to exceed expectations; the A-share interim report performance will diverge, and after the weakening of bulk commodities, the relative growth cycle will be more dominant. In terms of configuration, it is recommended that investors seize structural opportunities and continue to deploy sectors with dual attributes of technology + manufacturing.

  Haitong Securities: RMB appreciation helps rebuild the bull market

  The appreciation of the renminbi is essentially due to China’s large trade surplus. The appreciation can help ease the pressure on raw material costs and strengthen the trend of foreign capital inflows. The market adjustment after the Spring Festival is due to inflation concerns. The current concerns are weakening. The expansion of corporate profits supports the market upward, and the bull market is rebuilding. Leading high-quality companies in various industries represented by the Mao Index are still better equipped and upright. It is surprising that smart manufacturing, which has rapid profit growth and conforms to the policy direction, is flexible.

  Huatai Securities: The stock game evolves to the incremental market, waiting for the capital to enter the market

  Since the 5.13 market cutoff point, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index broke through the shock box from 5.17 to 5.21. Last week, the two markets had heavy trading volume, and the average daily turnover reached the highest level since the week of 2.22. Under the release of A-share volume, there are three aspects of cost, demand, and liquidity. Correction of pessimistic expectations, cost and demand side: April industrial profits reflect that demand resilience is not weak, while midstream cost pressures are controllable. The Standing Committee of the State Council emphasized the third time to crack down on large-scale hoarding; liquidity side: US April PCE data landed, Federal Reserve officials Frequent voices emphasized the need to be patient with Taper, U.S. Treasury dollars continued to decompress, and A-share micro-liquidity emerged from the predicament of the stock game. Since the end of February, the “underwater” funds that have entered the market may have been in the decompression category, and the room for homeopathic funds such as leverage and residential funds to enter the market has opened up. Continue to add second-tier leaders and pay attention to the three main trading lines of industry rotation/scarce capacity/profitability.

  On the general trend, continue to maintain the mid-term strategic view: the market has broken through the sideways turbulence, and is “make up” reflecting the upward adjustment of the full-year performance expectation under the overall performance of the quarterly report. It is expected to achieve positive returns by the end of Q3.In terms of industry selection, from a tactical perspective, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the three main transaction lines: 1) The perspective of industry rotation, machinery, highway, special steel, and general retail; 2) The perspective of scarce production capacity, copper, aluminum, fiberglass, gypsum board, and rare earths; 3 ) From the perspective of profitability, general machinery, automation, medical equipment, beer, panels, semiconductors, coal, and decorative materials. From a strategic perspective, it is recommended to configure two main lines: 1) the small manufacturing leader related to carbon neutrality and intelligence; 2) the rise of “multi-polarization” of consumption and the “second” sinking.

  Guotai JunanSecurities: The shock will not last long, challenge four thousand points

  General situation research and judgment: the shock will not last for a long time, challenge four thousand points.On May 23, the strategy of the monarch clearly put forward the viewpoint of “the shock will not last long, challenge four thousand points”, and pointed out that the downward risk evaluation of the denominator is the core driver of this round of market. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.28% and stood firm at 3,600 points, of which Tuesday rose 2.40%, marking the biggest one-day gain in 7 months. Structurally, the securities firms’ index this week’s sharp rise is also in line with the judgment of “securities taking the lead”, and the logic is gradually fulfilling Among. It is worth noting that the appreciation of the renminbi is not the core driver of the current market. Although the renminbi exchange rate rose above the 6.4 mark, this week’s record inflow of funds from the north was taken into account, but considering that appreciation expectations are fully reflected, and the central bank’s statement that “appreciation cannot offset the impact of rising commodity prices” and “don’t bet on appreciation or devaluation of the renminbi exchange rate” In the future, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate will have limited impact on A-shares, and the core driver of the market will still be the downward risk evaluation.

  Firmly invest in new ideas: mid-market blue-chips lead, and big-cap blue chips follow.The downside of risk evaluation is essentially a process from uncertainty to certainty. The idea of ​​stock selection is to find the stocks that are uncertain to certain and have the greatest marginal improvement. As market risk appetite is still at a low-to-medium level, blue-chip stocks will remain the focus of investment. However, the risk evaluation of large-cap blue-chips and mid-cap blue-chips is poor, and future performance will differ: 1) Mid-cap blue-chips lead the way. With the substantial improvement in mid-market profitability, its operating stability expectations have risen, and the risk evaluation margin has declined significantly. 2) Blue chips follow. With the decline in transaction congestion and the fragmented chip structure of the current large-cap blue chips, the deterioration of the micro-transaction structure has been significantly improved, returning to investment horizons. Considering that the overall performance has improved but the magnitude is small, and its risk evaluation itself is low, the downward marginal contribution of risk evaluation is limited, and the future will follow the market. As seen in Weizhi’s works, as the most crowded track in the micro-transaction structure, liquor reflects people’s inner expectations most directly. The second-tier leaders in the current round of liquor market are led by the downward drive of risk evaluation. In the future, the market will chase in the direction of greater marginal improvement represented by second-tier liquor stocks.

  Industrial Securities:The “centennial” market is in full swing

  Industrial enterprise profits are growing at a high rate, exports are strong, and domestic demand is still actively replenishing inventory. The economy maintains a recovery trend. The economy as a whole is not pessimistic. With the strong overseas recovery, it may even be more optimistic than everyone expected. Liquidity “does not turn sharply”, neither tight nor loose, the stock market has relatively abundant liquidity, and the inflow of foreign capital this year has exceeded 200 billion yuan. At this stage, it is in the window period of rising risk appetite and policy warming.On the whole, we are optimistic about the market. Since April, the “centennial” market has been in full swing, and it has been in full swing. Investors are actively deploying. In this stage, the growth style that has been emphasized will be the main source of excess returns.

  Configure the main line, harvest cycle, and layout growth. The direction of the growth technology high-quality track business segmentation. Benefit from the resonance of many factors such as policy, fundamentals, performance boom, bargaining chip structure, valuation and cost-effectiveness. Pay attention to the high growth and trend of the quarterly report, such as military industry, new energy vehicle chains, semiconductors, passive components, medical equipment and services.

  GF Securities: Breaking the box with a new high exchange rate, focusing on the financial sector with “fewer people + logical improvement”

  The appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate is an important force for A-shares to break the box shock in the near future. The early volatility of A shares reflects factors such as profitability, high inflation expectations and no further rise in liquidity. This week, A shares broke the box shock since March and broke through, mainly due to the recent strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate Expectations tend to be consistent. Immediately the central bank made an authoritative statement on the RMB exchange rate, which helped to eliminate some of the “noise.”

  The new high of the exchange rate broke the box and added a new financial sector focusing on “fewer people + logical improvement” that benefits from foreign capital inflows.At present, A-shares are still in a stage of healthy credit contraction, at a stage when valuation risks are released and corporate profits remain resilient. The appreciation trend of the RMB exchange rate is the focus of the future. Observe the main factors affecting the current round of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, such as the trend of US economic recovery, the management of the Fed’s taper expectations, and the process of large-scale fiscal stimulus in the European Union. It is difficult for global inflation expectations to rise further, which will help enhance the winning rate of A-share growth stocks. Suggested configuration: the intersection of good immediate performance + low PEG or full handover (sub-high-end liquor/semiconductor/computer), low PEG + smooth transmission of price increases, midstream manufacturing (glass/paper) where ROE continues to rise, and new focus on value appreciation “Less people + logical improvement” finance (brokers/banks). Thematic investment focuses on the improvement of the economy under “carbon neutrality” and the determination of the direction of policy marginal increase (photovoltaic/solid waste).

Essence Securities: still in the upward swing, grasping the compensatory gains and the strong expectations of the interim report

  Under the current significant dovish background of the Federal Reserve, the global stock market valuation tolerance has increased, coupled with the A-share risk appetite in a favorable window period, so that A-shares have a short-term upward swing. From a structural point of view, the market presents certain characteristics of rotation. The cycle is the first to start and also adjusts first, and then consumption strengthens. Recently, securities firms, military industry, semiconductors and technology stocks have relay characteristics. In the next stage, due to the overall favorable support from the liquidity environment and risk appetite factors, the growth proliferation may continue, and attention will be paid to the types of supplementary gains and the ones expected to be strong in the interim report.

  In terms of industry configuration, it is still possible to continue to hold varieties of core tracks with higher-than-expected profit growth, and companies whose valuations have benefited from the restoration of the epidemic. Focus on the new main lines that are being bred in non-core assets, and dig from the bottom up. Opportunities neglected in the process of economic repair and transformation. The focus of attention includes three clues: 1) New growth track: artificial intelligence, smart cars, military industry, Xinchuang Net Security, etc.; 2) Varieties in the core track that can continue to exceed expectations: some semiconductors, liquor, and pharmaceutical companies; 3 ) Epidemic recovery chain: banking, tourism, aviation,Agricultural productsWait.

  CICC: Emotional warming, focus on growth

  As the index level gradually rises, market volatility may increase slightly, but on the whole, the pattern of relatively strong growth style may not change. Based on the time and magnitude of the previous market adjustment, market sentiment, growth and policy expectations, it is reiterated that the “mid-term adjustment” is coming to an end, the style is gradually returning to growth and gradually reducing the allocation of cycles. Considering the “dislocation recovery” after the global epidemic, economic recovery and market interpretation may follow “first in, first out”, and attention needs to be paid to the risk that subsequent external fluctuations may increase.

  Light index, heavy structure, partial growth. 1) In the pan-consumer sector, sectors with strong bargaining power, low profit pressure, high prosperity or improvement (such as automobiles, home appliances, light industrial household appliances, medical care, food and beverage, etc.) are still the bottom-up focus; 2 ) To maintain a high-prosperity semiconductor and other technological hardware, the middle and upper reaches of the new energy automobile industry chain, etc.; 3) The structure of the old economy is optimized, and raw materials with staged growth attributes (such as lithium, copper and aluminum, leading securities firms, etc.); 4) Structure Sexual themes such as semiconductors and other technological themes, electric vehicles and autonomous driving, AR/VR, etc. are worthy of attention.

  Tianfeng Securities: The rebound window is moving forward, and the key to sustainability depends on two factors

  According to the preliminary judgment, from mid-June to mid-July, the interim report predicted that the window period accompanying the 100th anniversary of the founding of the party may bring an opportunity for the market to rebound. However, with the looser-than-expected easing of inter-bank liquidity in May, regulatory pressure on commodity prices, and the renminbi’s rise above the 6.4% mark, the rebound window has moved forward.

  From the perspective of the sustainability of the rebound, on the one hand, regarding the rebound space of core assets, we will focus on whether the public fund issuance in June can recover. If it is still poor, it will be difficult for the valuation of core assets to break through the shock range. On the other hand, with regard to the direction of the oversold rebound, it is important to focus on whether the central bank continues to pay attention to ample inter-bank liquidity (DR007) Maintain tolerance, and it is recommended to pay attention to the direction of oversold rebound, the previous fundamentals continue to improve (Q2 may continue to grow at a high rate), but the stock price performance of the military upstream and semiconductors is poor.

Guosheng Securities: Long window continues, focusing on science and technology innovation

  Market sentiment is constantly being repaired, and the effect of making money continues to appear. Grasp the moment, it may be the loosest time of liquidity throughout the year.1. The continued loosening of overseas currencies, combined with the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the appreciation of the renminbi, has accelerated the inflow of foreign capital and caused the domestic market to share overseas liquidity spillovers. On May 27th, the Fed released US$485 billion in liquidity exceeding expectations through an overnight “reverse repurchase”, breaking the historical record at the end of 2015. At the same time, since the offshore RMB exchange rate broke through the 6.4 mark on May 24, it has now risen further to 6.36. Overseas monetary easing continues, superimposed on the appreciation of the renminbi, and foreign capital inflows are accelerating. On May 25, the inflow of 21.7 billion in the northward capital of Lu-Stock Connect set a new record. 2. The foundation of domestic economic recovery is still relatively weak, which further eases market expectations of monetary policy tightening. Especially on the consumer side, the growth rate of social consumption dropped significantly in April, and a moderate policy environment is needed to support it. 3. The upward short-term PPI has limited restrictions on monetary policy. Regulators have repeatedly stabilized monetary policy expectations on multiple occasions. The Politburo meeting on April 30 emphasized the “stability” of the policy and “no quick turn”, indicating that the policy will not be tightened. 4. The recent drop in commodity prices has eased inflationary pressures. The regulatory authorities have continuously “named” the price of bulk commodities. Recently, the prices of several bulk commodities, especially steel and coal, have also dropped significantly. 5. The 10-year treasury bond and the 3-month shibor interest rate are still declining, which also shows that the market is still relatively liquid. Therefore, due to the superposition of many factors, it may be the time when the liquidity of the whole year is the weakest.

  Three clues to the “Nuggets” science and technology innovation board: 1) Develop a new direction for A-shares and benchmark the scarce subdivision track “unicorn”. 2) Performance growth has been leading the “high growth” of science and technology; 3) Since its listing, the retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation cost-effective from the perspective of PEG; —— Layout Hong Kong stocks “golden pit”, focus Pay attention to the Hong Kong stock technology giants and value leaders. —— New energy, chemical industry, and glass, consumer building materials, furniture and other sectors in the “post-real estate cycle” with strong certainty of the layout.

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