Dusseldorf The hopes for a price recovery on the German stock market are quickly over. Shortly after 14 o'clock the German leading index falls again under the mark of 13,000 points and lies still still 0,2 per cent in the plus with 12.989 counters. The daily high was 13,085 points.
For US President Donald Trump can also imagine a trade agreement with China only after the election in November 2020. "I have no deadline, no," he said. "In a way, I think it's better to wait until after the election with China." The People's Republic wants to make an agreement now. "And we'll see if the deal is right or not," said Trump. "He has to be right." If he wanted, things could go well.
Whether the "Phase 1 Deal" will ever be signed? Uncertainty about the progress of the trade dispute is weighing on the market.
Previously Trump had confirmed plans for high punitive tariffs on French products. The plan is for a "very high tax on wine" and other goods, said Trump on Tuesday at the NATO summit in London. The US would not allow France to tax American companies. "If anyone taxes them, we are," said the US President.
In response to a French digital tax, the US government threatened to punish French imports worth $ 2.4 billion with punitive tariffs of up to 100 percent. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the government is investigating whether a similar investigation will be included on digital taxes in Austria, Italy and Turkey.
This is one Wave of trade tensions inevitable. "The conflict with France also increases the risk that the US ultimately Collect duties on import cars from Europe"Believes Mikael Olai Milhøj, senior analyst at Danske Bank.
Already on Monday, the German leading index had lost more than 2.05 percent and had gone out of trading at a level of 12,964 points. It was the largest daily loss for the Dax since the end of July, with the index falling to its lowest level since the beginning of September.
How will things continue after yesterday's crash? According to the results of the latest Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment, there should be a recovery soon. "The shock of the sell-off in December a year ago, many are still aware," explained Stephan Heibel, owner of the analysis house Animusx, after evaluation of the survey on Monday afternoon. And dared the forecast: "A negative message could quickly lead to a sudden sell-off." A year ago, the Dax lost almost ten percent in the month of December.
In his opinion, this sell-off could be quick and violent, but hardly sustainable. Because unlike a year ago, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell this year ready to open the money locks, should it become necessary.
Look at the individual values
Merck: A sell recommendation by the analysts of Goldman Sachs charged. The papers of the pharmaceutical company yield around one percent. According to traders, Goldman Sachs advises to sell the stock and set a price target of 94 euros.
Unicredit: The Italian bank wants to reduce costs by 2023 by one billion euros. For this reason, about 8,000 jobs should be eliminated. The announcement benefits the share price with a gain of 0.5 percent.
MTU: A higher price target of the HSBC experts helped the shares of the engine manufacturer in a weak stock market environment to an increase of 2.7 percent to 245.90 euros. The analysts of the British bank raised their price target to 255 of 253 euros. In addition, the share of the German engine builder benefited from the agreement with the French competitor Safran. Both companies have settled their dispute over the distribution of tasks in the development of the new engine for the future Franco-German warplane. By the end of 2021, a joint venture is to be founded in which the French and MTU each hold 50 percent.
Hermes, LVMH, Kering, Verallia: The new US tariff threats against France weigh on the share prices of French luxury companies. The handbags manufacturer Hermes slipped 2.5 percent on Tuesday, LVMH shares two percent, Kering's 2.2 percent. The shares of the glass bottles specialist Verallia, which supplies, among other things, the champagne manufacturer Dom Perignon, were also on the sales list.
What the charting says
Yesterday's trading day has made the decision. The trading range since the beginning of November between 13,100 points on the lower and 13,300 points on the top is obsolete.
Now investors need to look at important support brands. Topics such as a new high for the year (currently 13,374 points) are temporarily over.
The first withdrawal mark has already been closed. It's about the so-called upward price gap from the beginning of November at 13,000 points. Such gaps (jargon: Gap) arise when the highest price one day remains below that of the following day.
The concrete case: On November 1, the Dax rose to 12,992 points, on Monday (November 4), the lowest price was 13,019 points. Currently, the Dax listed again above the price gap. But it would be a positive surprise if this brand should hold.
The second withdrawal mark: For several weeks in September, the Dax attempted to break the 12,500-point range – to no avail. Only after a slide to 11,878 points, the Frankfurt benchmark regained strength to overcome the mark in mid-October.
That means: For several weeks the area was a resistance. Investors were apparently unwilling to continue buying at such a price level. After overcoming, this resistance has become a support that is important in view of its duration alone. If the Dax fall under this mark: At the latest then the stock market lights on yellow.
The third breakpoint, so that the rally can continue running since the beginning of the year, is the 200-day line. As a reminder, the Dax has gained more than 25 percent since January 1, 2019. The 200-day line is a gauge of the long-term uptrend and had even greater significance than there was no computer trade. It's almost the average of the past twelve months.
This average line is currently quoted at around 12,200 points and is rising daily by just over ten points. It would not be uncommon for the Dax to test this line in the coming weeks.
With all these technical technical considerations, the following applies: The brands are only an orientation and can, for example, fall considerably short of one day in the course of trading. Because many traders are based on such brands.
Handelsblatt analyst check: Baader Bank raises price target of the Cewe share
Baader Bank has raised the price target for Cewe from 94 to 108 euros with a view to cooperating with the British drugstore chain Boots and left the rating on "buy". This is great news, analyst Volker Bosse wrote in a study available on Monday. The British fit perfectly into the European partner network of the photo specialist.
Click here for the Handelsblatt analyst check
Here's the page with the Dax-course, here are the current tops & flops in the Dax. Current short selling by investors can be found in our database on short selling.
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