East African nations are poised on the brink of uncertainty, eagerly anticipating the potential ramifications of Donald Trump’s return to power, knowing that each capital within the region grapples with specific issues that could be significantly impacted by his policy changes.
Nairobi harbors hopes for a resolution to prolonged trade deal negotiations that have lingered for years, while Rwanda anxiously watches to see if it can shed its placement on a list of trade restrictions that arose from its ban on second-hand clothing imports from the US.
Uganda, for its part, is optimistic that a change in leadership may yield better diplomatic relations after facing challenges with Joe Biden’s administration regarding LGBTQ+ rights, just as South Sudan aspires for improved funding to address its transitional challenges.
In a region marked by conflict, both Kigali and Kinshasa are eager to determine whether Trump possesses a more effective strategy for resolving the longstanding eastern Congo conflict, whereas Tanzania is keenly observing if Washington will open its financial resources to further develop the Lobito Corridor.
Meanwhile, for Somalia, a pivotal transition security mission hinges on US backing, alongside delicate tensions with Ethiopia concerning a controversial maritime Memorandum of Understanding involving Somaliland.
During his first term as president, Trump demonstrated a penchant for unpredictability, maintaining a constant theme of “America First,” which often made it difficult for international observers to interpret his intentions seriously.
As January approaches and Trump officially reclaims his position, global scrutiny intensifies around how he may disrupt existing policies that impact African nations like Kenya or whether he will maintain a consistent trajectory with a shift in focus.
“Given the growing demographics that render Africa increasingly vital to a second Trump administration compared to the first, his upcoming term is likely to prioritize enhancing trade relations with the continent,” remarked Vin Weber, a former US representative from Minnesota and a strategic advisor for various Republican presidential campaigns.
Weber also noted that clear indicators suggest the intensifying US-China rivalry will play out on the African stage, particularly with an increased US emphasis on critical minerals and their associated supply chains.
Experts predict that a second Trump administration would likely confront the threats of terrorism more aggressively, strengthening US Africa Command and bolstering support for local anti-terror operations across the continent. In his first term, Trump made the controversial decision to withdraw ground troops from Somalia that were stationed there to assist local forces, a move that Biden swiftly reversed soon after taking office.
“While Trump tends to favor bilateral trade agreements over expansive pacts, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) is gaining substantial support within business communities across both Africa and the United States, making it unlikely that Trump would choose to weaken this trade deal,” Weber explained.
“With projections indicating that one in four people globally will be African by 2050, this demographic and economic prospect holds strong appeal for Trump, especially against the backdrop of intensified competition with China, which has been solidifying its influence on the continent.”
In Nairobi, the US endorsement of the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS) leading in Haiti, which Kenya is at the forefront of, along with assurances on climate change and backing for various UN agencies addressing humanitarian needs, remains a pivotal point of focus. Notably, Republican legislators have previously stalled appropriations for US funding destined for Haiti.
Biden had pledged $300 million to the effort but has delivered only $100 million thus far, with additional funds still pending in Congress. With Trump’s victory also coinciding with Republican gains in the House, any financial support for international endeavors will come under their scrutiny for the next three years.
Trump has long criticized Biden’s approach to foreign funding, targeting domestic issues instead.
Delays in funding for the MSS could hinder its objectives and potentially compel Kenya to postpone planned deployments that were scheduled for January.
Biden had canceled a significant trade deal initiated during Trump’s administration with Kenya and embarked on discussions for a new type of agreement tailored to his vision. However, these talks remain unresolved as his term continues, leading analysts to caution that a bilateral trade deal with the US may not materialize for Kenya in the immediate year ahead.
For Kenya, this scenario implies a prolonged wait for a trade agreement that once appeared promising during Trump’s first term, with trade experts indicating that the introduction of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in 2021 and the impending renewal of Agoa complicate the prospects for a US-Kenya agreement.
“The focus is shifting toward protecting and fostering domestic American production, which means that opportunities for American market access that were once celebrated as major achievements under President George W. Bush may become less prioritized,” expressed Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) and a former Kenya Trade minister.
“Regardless of the outcome of the election, I believe Africa is poised to play a diminished role in the economic and wider international engagements with future American administrations.”
This evolving dynamic suggests that changes in US leadership have left Kenya in a prolonged limbo for a trade deal lasting eight years. Biden’s pivot from a Free Trade Area Agreement (FTA) to a Strategic Trade and Investment Partnership (Stip) reflects a departure from Trump’s approach, indicating that the new administration may not pursue continuity.
Johnson Weru, former Principal Secretary for Trade in Kenya, asserts that the Stip may arguably face an unfavorable fate, primarily due to contradictions with the AfCFTA and World Trade Organization (WTO) guidelines—a concern raised by counterparts in the region.
“The situation has left Kenya vulnerable to international legal frameworks because the US is obliged to extend trading preferences to developing nations as articulated in Article 24 of the WTO,” noted Weru.
“The rule dictates that preferences must be accorded to developing countries before extending them to third parties, further complicating the landscape of any US-Kenya trade agreements.”
“I anticipate that Trump will return to the FTA initiated with President Uhuru Kenyatta, which was first proposed in 2020,” remarked Weru.
The US suspended Rwanda’s participation in Agoa in 2018 after Kigali prohibited the importation of second-hand clothing from the US, a decision that could see a reversal under Trump’s leadership.
As Uganda navigates complex relations with the West, particularly over LGBTQ+ rights, President Yoweri Museveni issued a message of congratulations to Trump, expressing a desire to collaborate with him just as he did with previous administrations.
Last year, following Uganda’s controversial Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA), Biden suspended the country’s participation in Agoa, condemning it as a significant violation of fundamental human rights, which subsequently prompted the World Bank to halt lending to Uganda due to concerns over human rights abuses.
Trump has pledged to implement a federal ban on gender-affirming healthcare for minors and seek to redefine gender at the federal level, solidifying the binary recognition of male and female based strictly on birth assignments.
His platform has also included proposals for policies aimed at diminishing LGBTQ+ voices in schools through national “Don’t Say Gay” measures and an agenda to preserve women’s sports as female-only spaces.
As a senator, Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, introduced significant legislation that could impose severe penalties on medical professionals treating transgender youths.
On the campaign trail, Trump denounced federal greenhouse gas regulations as the “greatest scam in history” while vowing to increase fossil fuel production.
However, experts caution that such actions must be weighed against global climatic concerns, as the ramifications of neglecting climate leadership could have lasting effects, thwarting efforts to combat fossil fuel reliance and stymie progress in addressing global warming not only in the next four years but for subsequent administrations as well.
Ultimately, Trump’s presidency is expected to build upon existing frameworks established by prior Republican administrations that have periodically benefited countries like Kenya and Tanzania, particularly concerning initiatives spearheaded by the Millennium Challenge Corporation and other creative arrangements from the US International Development Finance Corporation.
**Interview with Dr. Mukhisa Kituyi: Former UNCTAD Secretary-General on Trump’s Potential Impact on East Africa**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Kituyi. With Donald Trump poised to return to the presidency, what do you see as the immediate implications for East African nations, particularly concerning trade and diplomatic relations?
**Dr. Kituyi:** Thank you for having me. The return of Trump could significantly shift the dynamics of trade relationships between the US and East Africa. Historically, Trump’s administration favored bilateral trade agreements over broad multilateral accords. This could lead to renewed discussions on trade deals that may be promising for nations like Kenya, which was previously engaged in negotiations under Trump’s first term.
**Interviewer:** Given the complexities involving the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and the developments surrounding the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), how do you think these factors will influence potential agreements?
**Dr. Kituyi:** There’s a delicate balance. The AFCTA is designed to enhance intra-African trade, while AGOA offers preferential access to US markets. However, the introduction of Trump’s previously discussed Free Trade Agreement with Kenya might disrupt this emerging regional framework. There’s also the risk that domestic US interests might overshadow foreign trade commitments—a concerning possibility as we assess the landscape.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned in your recent analysis that Africa may lose some of its significance in economic engagements with future American administrations. Could you elaborate on that?
**Dr. Kituyi:** Certainly. As the demographics shift and competition intensifies, particularly with China’s growing influence in Africa, US policy could prioritize domestic production over foreign relations. Moreover, with the Republican resurgence in Congress, there may be an inward focus on American interests, leading to diminished economic engagement with African countries.
**Interviewer:** How do you interpret the reactions of East African leaders towards Trump’s potential presidency, like those from Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni or Rwanda’s Paul Kagame?
**Dr. Kituyi:** Leaders like Museveni, who have navigated many administrations, see an opportunity in Trump’s return for potential enhancements in bilateral ties. They recognize the need for strategic partnerships that may align with their national interests. At the same time, the risks associated with contentious issues such as human rights cannot be overlooked, particularly given Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy.
**Interviewer:** Switching to security matters, how do you foresee Trump’s approach towards terrorism in East Africa, and what do you think this means for countries like Somalia?
**Dr. Kituyi:** Trump’s first term saw a withdrawal of troops from Somalia, a contentious decision that sparked various criticisms. Should he return and opt for a more aggressive stance, we could see an increase in support for local anti-terror operations. However, this is contingent upon how effectively Trump can balance military engagements while navigating diplomatic channels in a region rife with complexity.
**Interviewer:** what are your key takeaways regarding the future of US-East Africa relations under a potential second Trump administration?
**Dr. Kituyi:** In essence, while there are opportunities for renewed trade dialogues, we must be cognizant of the challenges arising from an inward-focused US policy and complex regional dynamics. The evolving geopolitical competition, particularly with China, will also complicate the prospects as African nations strive to secure favorable terms. We are certainly in a period of significant uncertainty.
**Interviewer:** Thank you for your insights, Dr. Kituyi. Your perspectives on these ever-evolving issues are invaluable as we anticipate the changes that lie ahead for East Africa.
**Dr. Kituyi:** Thank you for having me; it’s been a pleasure discussing these crucial matters.
