Two days before the decision… Here are the experts’ expectations for the interest rate decision in Egypt

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Accelerate inflation Annual CPI in cities in Egypt At a higher-than-expected rate of 13.6 percent on an annual basis in July from 13.2 percent in June, and on a monthly basis, the core inflation rate increased 1.3 percent, compared to a decline of 0.1 percent in June.

Year-on-year core inflation jumped to 15.6 percent from 14.6 percent in June. The core inflation rate excludes volatile goods such as food, according to government data.

And I have Egyptian Central Bank An inflation target range of five to nine percent, but it said in June that it would allow for a higher level beyond the fourth quarter.

lost Egyptian Pound Since March 2022, about 22 percent of its value against the dollar, after the Central Bank reduced the exchange rate by about 14 percent on March 21, and the Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates by 300 basis points during the May and March meetings, bringing the overnight deposit rate now to 11.25%, and the overnight lending rate is 12.25%, while the main operation rate and discount rate are 11.75%.

For his part, Chief Economist at EFG Hermes, Muhammad Abu Basha, told "Sky News Arabia Economy"Expectations indicate that the Central Bank of Egypt will raise rates Benefit The main reason for this was the recent rise in the prices of petroleum products and the decline in the pound’s exchange rate against the dollar.

The CEO of the Arab Trader Company, Ahmed Ayyad, told Sky News Arabia that the Central Bank of Egypt would raise interest rates at a large pace, up to 2%, and attributed this to a set of internal and external factors.

He explained that the internal factors lie in the clear rise in inflation last month and the possibility of it increasing further in the coming period, which came in conjunction with the increase in the price of fuel, in addition to the drop in the exchange rate of the pound.

As for external factors, the CEO of the Arab Trader Company, Ahmed Ayyad, believes that the rate hikes by major global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, with the continued tightening of monetary policy until the end of the year, put pressure on emerging markets.

He pointed out that raising interest rates in Egypt significantly will be an incentive to attract investments, which have largely exited Egypt with more than 20 billion dollars, since the beginning of monetary tightening on the part of major central banks.

On her part, the CEO of the Board of Directors "Three Way Securities Brokerage Company"Rania Yacoub for "Sky News Arabia Economy" The Central Bank of Egypt will raise interest rates at its next meeting between 1-1.5 percent.

She attributed this to the high rates inflation On an annual and monthly basis, after the Egyptian government’s decision to raise fuel prices, which was reflected in an increase in the prices of basic commodities, in addition to the repercussions of the global inflation crisis, which still casts a shadow on the Egyptian economy.

In a related context, the approved financial broker on the Egyptian Stock Exchange, Mohamed Mahdi Abdel Nabi, confirmed to Sky News Arabia, that the CBE meeting next Thursday will be its big title. " The real value of the pound" Which some research and evaluation institutions dealt with averaged between 22 and 24 pounds per US dollar "the latest of which was the Credit Suisse report "He explained that the official price on the screens of Egyptian banks is about 19.15 pounds.

He stressed that the fair value of the Egyptian pound is an effective factor in attracting investments and cash flows to the country, despite the burdens of raising interest on credit portfolios and borrowing costs.

Abdel-Nabi pointed out that the rise in the inflation rate in Egyptian cities to its highest level in 3 years, reinforces the central tendency to raise interest rates by more than 1 percent on the pound, which has fallen by about 23 percent against the dollar since the beginning of this year.

On the other hand, said Dr. Moatasem Al Shahidi Board Member "Horizon" Finance The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to keep interest rates at its next meeting.

When asked about the reasons, he said to "Sky News Arabia Economy" The lower the frequency of the rise inflation Last month in Egypt as well as in the United States, in addition to the drop in the prices of basic commodities globally, especially wheat and oil, a matter that will ease pressure on the Egyptian balance of payments.

Al-Shahidi added that what supports his expectations is also what was stated in the statements of the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt that the monthly deficit decreased from 3.8 billion dollars to 400 million dollars, stressing that the central bank had raised interest rates significantly in a proactive step at the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis.

A Reuters poll had expected the Central Bank of Egypt to raise the overnight deposit rate by 50 basis points.

In an opinion poll that included 15 analysts, average expectations showed that the central bank would raise the deposit rate to 11.75 percent and the lending rate to 12.75 percent at the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

It is noteworthy that the Egyptian Central Bank had kept the interest rate unchanged at its previous meeting on June 23, but had raised it by 200 basis points in May, saying that it seeks to contain inflation expectations.

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Accelerate inflation Annual CPI in cities in Egypt At a higher-than-expected rate of 13.6 percent on an annual basis in July from 13.2 percent in June, and on a monthly basis, the core inflation rate increased 1.3 percent, compared to a decline of 0.1 percent in June.

Year-on-year core inflation jumped to 15.6 percent from 14.6 percent in June. The core inflation rate excludes volatile goods such as food, according to government data.

And I have Egyptian Central Bank An inflation target range of five to nine percent, but it said in June that it would allow for a higher level beyond the fourth quarter.

lost Egyptian Pound Since March 2022, about 22 percent of its value against the dollar, after the Central Bank reduced the exchange rate by about 14 percent on March 21, and the Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates by 300 basis points during the May and March meetings, bringing the overnight deposit rate now to 11.25%, and the overnight lending rate is 12.25%, while the main operation rate and discount rate are 11.75%.

For his part, the chief economist at EFG Hermes, Mohamed Abu Basha, told Iqtisad Sky News Arabia: The expectations indicate that the Central Bank of Egypt will raise rates. Benefit The main reason for this was the recent rise in the prices of petroleum products and the decline in the pound’s exchange rate against the dollar.

The CEO of the Arab Trader Company, Ahmed Ayyad, told Sky News Arabia that the Central Bank of Egypt would raise interest rates at a large pace, up to 2%, and attributed this to a set of internal and external factors.

He explained that the internal factors lie in the clear rise in inflation last month and the possibility of it increasing further in the coming period, which came in conjunction with the increase in the price of fuel, in addition to the drop in the exchange rate of the pound.

As for external factors, the CEO of the Arab Trader Company, Ahmed Ayyad, believes that the rate hikes by major global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, with the continued tightening of monetary policy until the end of the year, put pressure on emerging markets.

He pointed out that raising interest rates in Egypt significantly will be an incentive to attract investments, which have largely exited Egypt with more than 20 billion dollars, since the beginning of monetary tightening on the part of major central banks.

For her part, the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the “Threeway Securities Brokerage Company”, Rania Yacoub, expected to “Iqtisad” Sky News Arabia” that the Central Bank of Egypt will raise interest rates at its next meeting between 1-1.5 percent.

She attributed this to the high rates inflation On an annual and monthly basis, after the Egyptian government’s decision to raise fuel prices, which was reflected in an increase in the prices of basic commodities, in addition to the repercussions of the global inflation crisis, which still casts a shadow on the Egyptian economy.

In a related context, the financial broker accredited to the Egyptian Stock Exchange, Mohamed Mahdi Abdel Nabi, confirmed to Sky News Arabia, that the CBE meeting next Thursday will have its big title, “the real value of the pound,” which some research and evaluation institutions dealt with on an average between 22 to 24 One US dollar, “the latest of which was the Credit Suisse report,” explaining that the official price on the screens of Egyptian banks is about 19.15 pounds.

He stressed that the fair value of the Egyptian pound is an effective factor in attracting investments and cash flows to the country, despite the burdens of raising interest on credit portfolios and borrowing costs.

Abdel-Nabi pointed out that the rise in the inflation rate in Egyptian cities to its highest level in 3 years, reinforces the central tendency to raise interest rates by more than 1 percent on the pound, which has fallen by about 23 percent against the dollar since the beginning of this year.

On the other hand, said Dr. Moatasem Al-Shaheedy, a member of the board of directors of Horizon Financial, said that the Central Bank of Egypt is likely to maintain interest rates at its next meeting.

When asked about the reasons, he told “Sky News Arabia” that the decline in the rate of rise inflation Last month in Egypt as well as in the United States, in addition to the drop in the prices of basic commodities globally, especially wheat and oil, a matter that will ease pressure on the Egyptian balance of payments.

Al-Shahidi added that what supports his expectations is also what was stated in the statements of the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt that the monthly deficit decreased from 3.8 billion dollars to 400 million dollars, stressing that the central bank had raised interest rates significantly in a proactive step at the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis.

A Reuters poll had expected the Central Bank of Egypt to raise the overnight deposit rate by 50 basis points.

In an opinion poll that included 15 analysts, average expectations showed that the central bank would raise the deposit rate to 11.75 percent and the lending rate to 12.75 percent at the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

It is noteworthy that the Egyptian Central Bank had kept the interest rate unchanged at its previous meeting on June 23, but had raised it by 200 basis points in May, saying that it seeks to contain inflation expectations.

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