US election forecast: where the US election will be decided now

IIn the United States, most of the electoral constituencies are counted. In most states, the victory could be attributed to one of the candidates that night (Wednesday morning CET), including Florida, which was less competitive than expected.

Vote counting continues throughout the day in less than a dozen states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, plus North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

You can find all updates on our live ticker for the US election.

Voting ended at 1 a.m. East Coast time on Wednesday morning (7 a.m. CET) with the last polling stations in Alaska closed. But many voters had already voted. Almost 100 million US citizens voted by letter or in pre-opened polling stations. This corresponds to around 70 percent of the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election.

In the following you will find out when the first results were available from which countries, in which countries it took the longest and where there could be even bigger postal voting problems.

Source: WORLD infographic

11 p.m. German time – 5 p.m. East Coast time

The television channel CNN presented the first results of polls in front of polling stations at 5 p.m. local time (11 p.m. CET). One of the questions asked was which topics were most important to the voters. The answer most frequently given was the economy with 34 percent, followed by racism (21 percent), the coronavirus (18 percent), crime and security, and health care (11 percent each).

0 a.m. German time – 6 p.m. East Coast time

Polling stations in Indiana and Kentucky have closed. However, the first forecasts were not made before 7 p.m. local time.

1 a.m. German time – 7 p.m. East Coast time

Indiana (11 voters) Trump victory: Indiana is the first state to have a decision in the 2020 US election. About an hour after the polls closed, CNN announced the victory for the incumbent. This was what was expected.

Vermont (3) Win Biden: At 7:20 p.m. East Coast Time (1:20 a.m. CET), Joe Biden was delighted with three secure electoral votes. The AP news agency came to this conclusion.

Kentucky (8) Sieg Trump: The third result was there at 1.30 a.m.: According to the AP, Trump wins Kentucky. So far there have been no surprises.

West Virginia (5) Trump victory: As expected, Trump won West Virginia, as AP reported at 1:36 a.m. But West Virginia will accept absentee ballots through November 9th. Requirement: the postmark must be dated November 3rd at the latest.

Virginia (13) win Biden: At 1:45 a.m., AP reported Biden’s victory in Virginia – as the polls expected.

2 a.m. German time – 8 p.m. East Coast time

The democratic candidate Joe Biden has, as expected, won in six other states. Go to his account Delaware (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14), Illinois (20), Rhode Island (4) and the federal capital Washington D.C. (3). This is what AP reported.

president Donald Trump however, secures itself at 2.12 a.m. according to the AP Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9) and Mississippi (6).

Arkansas (6 voters) Trump victory: At around 2:40 a.m., AP reported the incumbent’s victory. No Democrat has won there since Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996.

3 a.m. German time – 9 p.m. East Coast time

New York (29) win Biden: Just after 3 a.m., CNN announced that New York was going to Biden. The state is considered a safe bastion for the Democrats. On election night only the votes of votes cast in election offices will be published. Postal ballot papers will be reported in the following days. The June primaries took weeks to get the final results.

Connecticut (7) Sieg Biden: The east coast state also goes to Biden, according to CNN.

Official Donald Trump has at the same time, according to AP information, the electorate Louisiana (8) and Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3) and South Dakota (3) for sure.

Colorado (9) win Biden: CNN credits the state to Biden at 3:30 a.m. The Democrats won there again in 2016.

South Carolina (9) Sieg Trump: South Carolina goes to the incumbent, according to CNN. In North Carolina (15), on the other hand, the count is still running, Biden and Trump are in a head-to-head race.

4 a.m. German time – 10 p.m. East Coast time

New Mexico (5) win Biden: In a number of states, the counts continue – the candidates are often within striking distance. At 4:30 a.m., the Democrats are happy to have defended New Mexico, according to CNN. Only George W. Bush was able to win here in 2000 as a Republican.

New Hampshire (4) win Biden: At 4:40 a.m., CNN reports that Biden is winning in New Hampshire on the US east coast.

Simultaneously receives Donald Trump the electors Kansas (6), Utah (6) and Missouri (10).

5 a.m. German time – 11 p.m. East Coast time

California (55) win Biden: As expected, Biden prevails on the west coast. Fox News and CNN say its victory in California, with 55 most electoral voters ever for a state, as well as in Oregon (7) and the state Washington (12) ahead.

Virginia (13) win Biden: CNN predicts Biden will win in Virginia at 5:52 a.m.

Florida (29): Fox News is initially alone in predicting Trump’s victory in Florida. The other major broadcasters and Edison Research continue to rate the race as still too close.

Idaho (5): AP reports Trump’s victory on the basis of voter surveys and initial vote counts.

6 a.m. German time – 0 a.m. East Coast time

Ohio (18) Trump win: Donald Trump wins the important swing state Ohio. This emerges from matching forecasts by the stations Fox News and NBC on the basis of voter surveys and initial vote counts. AP has not yet announced a winner.

Iowa (6) Trump win: The important swing state Iwoa goes to Donald Trump. The AP reports on the basis of voter surveys and initial vote counts.

Montana (3) Trump victory: As expected, the US President secured a majority of the votes and thus three more voters.

Minnesota (10) win Biden: Joe Biden secures the swing state of Minnesota.

Florida (29) Trump victory: In the swing state of Florida, Donald Trump celebrates an important victory, according to CNN.

7 a.m. German time – 1 a.m. East Coast time

Hawaii (4) Win Biden: As expected, Biden wins here, as AP reports. Hawaii has been voting reliably democratically for decades. Most recently, a Republican presidential candidate won there in 1984 – Ronald Reagan.

Texas (38) Trump victory: The president has won the important state of Texas, as AP reported on the basis of voter surveys and initial vote counts.

Rhode Island (4) Win Biden: According to a projection by Edison Research, Biden wins here.

8 a.m. German time – 2 a.m. East Coast time

Nebraska (5) 4-1 victory for Trump: The president has four out of five votes; Biden won one vote. Nebraska, along with Maine, is one of the US states in which not all electorates go completely to the winner.

Arizona (11) win Biden: The challenger has secured the embattled state that has long been considered a safe bastion for the Republicans. The AP reported on the basis of voter surveys and vote counts. In the morning, Fox News, actually Trump’s bull market, also announced the challenger’s victory. According to CNN, Arizona is still undecided.

9 a.m. German time – 3 a.m. East Coast time

Maine (4) Win Biden: AP reported on the basis of voter surveys and initial vote counts that Biden has won at least three voters. In Maine, as in Nebraska, not all electors go to the winner in their entirety. In the second district the race was not yet decided.

8 p.m. German time – 2 p.m. East Coast time

Wisconsin (10) Win Biden: More than twelve hours of hanging are nearing an end. At the top of the hour, CNN makes a commitment, shortly afterwards also AP: Biden wins. The Swing State lives up to its name and is expected to switch from Republicans to Democrats. After counting 99 percent of the votes, it was 49.4 to 48.8 percent – the lead of 20,510 votes is still small. Initially, Trump was ahead, but could not defend the state. The reason for the turnaround were new numbers from the Democratic bastion of Milwaukee. Here the results of the region’s 170,000 postal votes could only be announced when they had all been counted – the vast majority of them went to Biden. Trump’s victory in the 2016 election was decisive for his subsequent victory in the national election.

10 p.m. German time – 4 p.m. East Coast time

Michigan (16) win Biden: CNN and NBC declared Biden the winner in Michigan shortly after his speech in his hometown of Wilmington. After counting 97 percent of the votes, 49.8 percent went to Biden and 48.6 percent to Trump. Most recently, Biden increased his lead from around 9,900 to 61,200 votes. This enabled the Democrats to regain another state that they lost four years ago.

Results are expected from these states:

Georgia: 16 Electors – Swing State

Survey status before the election: 48:47 for Trump

Election winner 2016: Donald Trump

Due to local counting laws, the result is expected late in Georgia – it could even take days for all ballot papers to be counted. The Georgia race is one of the closest in the country – Biden and Trump fought a close head-to-head race here.

Almost 100 million Americans voted before the election

Almost 100 million Americans voted before the election

Source: WORLD infographic

North Carolina: 15 Wahlleute – Swing State

Survey status before the election: 47.8: 47.6 for Biden

Election winner 2016: Donald Trump

North Carolina has traditionally been politically divided: rural areas tend to vote Republicans, cities tend to vote for Democrats. Trump increasingly relied on public election campaign events in North Carolina, Biden on expensive TV spots.

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Pennsylvania: 20 Wahlleute – Swing State

Survey status before the election: 48.7: 47.5 for Biden

Election winner 2016: Donald Trump

One of the most important states of all. In Pennsylvania, the counting of ballot papers could take a long time, as local law stipulates that they are valid until they arrive on November 6 – three days after election day. Overall, election officials estimate that “the overwhelming majority” of the votes will be counted by Friday.

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Nevada: 6 Electors – Biden tendency

Survey status before the election: 48.7: 46.3 for Biden

Election winner 2016: Hillary Clinton

In 2016, the majority of the votes in Nevada fell on Hillary Clinton. A smaller group of undecided people in the state, who with a slight majority currently tend towards Trump, will be decisive.

Trump hopes, among other things, to attract more Mormons to his side than in 2016 – around 500,000 of them live in Nevada. However, the state was hit particularly hard by the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, among other things, lives from tourism in Las Vegas, which has suffered massively.

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