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China’s Military Buildup Challenges U.S. Air Dominance in the Pacific
Table of Contents
- 1. China’s Military Buildup Challenges U.S. Air Dominance in the Pacific
- 2. A Shifting Balance of Power
- 3. PLA Air Force Modernization
- 4. The Need for Investment
- 5. Closing the Gap
- 6. Long-Range Missile Capabilities
- 7. China’s Airpower Growth
- 8. Tactical Air Superiority
- 9. China’s Missile Advantage
- 10. Counter-Intervention Strategy
- 11. Neutralizing US Airbases
- 12. The Taiwan scenario
- 13. Counterargument: U.S. Technological Superiority
- 14. Looking ahead, Dr. Sharma, what do you believe is the most crucial aspect for the U.S. Air Force to prioritize in the coming years to maintain an effective strategic advantage in the face of these challenges?
- 15. Interview: Dr. Anya Sharma on China’s Military Buildup and U.S.Air Dominance
- 16. Introduction
- 17. The PLAAF’s Advancement
- 18. Missile Capabilities and Their Impact
- 19. The Taiwan Scenario
- 20. U.S. Countermeasures and the Future
- 21. The Question For Readers
As China rapidly modernizes its military, the U.S. faces a growing challenge to its long-held air superiority in the Indo-Pacific region. Experts warn of potential consequences for regional stability adn the defense of key allies like taiwan.
A Shifting Balance of Power
The United States is facing a formidable challenge to its air dominance in the Pacific as “China is racing to shatter US air dominance in the Pacific—one stealth jet,long-range missile and cratered runway at a time.” This assessment comes amid growing concerns about China’s military modernization and its implications for regional security.
A top U.S. official recently stated that “China is rapidly building its capacity to challenge US air superiority in the Pacific, notably within the strategically vital First Island Chain.” The First Island Chain, a series of islands stretching from Japan to the Philippines, is critical for U.S. power projection and the defense of allies in the region. The Biden management has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to these allies, including Taiwan, but China’s growing military capabilities present a important hurdle.
PLA Air Force Modernization
Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of U.S.Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), testified before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, warning that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is rapidly expanding. With “an order of battle of 2,100 fighters and over 200 H-6 bombers,” the PLAAF is “outproducing the US in fighter aircraft at a ratio of 1.2 to 1.”
Paparo gave China “high marks” for its ability to deny US air superiority along the First Island Chain, citing its fast-growing fighter fleet, advanced long-range air-to-air missiles and sweeping modernization across all warfighting domains.” This modernization includes not only new aircraft but also advanced electronic warfare capabilities and improved pilot training.
Holding air superiority along the First Island Chain “is essential for the US to operate and support allies like Taiwan.” The U.S. has long maintained a qualitative edge in military technology, but China’s rapid advancements are eroding that advantage. The U.S. Air Force is actively working to modernize its own fleet but faces budgetary constraints and production challenges.
The Need for Investment
While “air supremacy—total control of the air—will not be enjoyed by either side,” Paparo warned that “without credible investment in long-range fires, integrated air and missile defenses, and advanced command and control systems, the US risks falling behind.” He emphasized that “ceding air superiority is not an option.”
The U.S. military is exploring new technologies and strategies to counter china’s growing capabilities. These include developing next-generation air-to-air missiles, improving cyber warfare capabilities, and enhancing cooperation with allies in the region. For example, the recent expansion of military exercises with Japan and Australia demonstrate a commitment to collective defense.
Closing the Gap
While China’s fighter production capacity is impressive, it is still behind the US in aircraft numbers, with the US maintaining an advantage in fifth-generation aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35 in particular.” However, China “is closing the production gap with the US,” reportedly “producing 100 fifth-generation J-20 fighters annually and tripling the production of other aircraft types, such as the J-10C and J-16.” This high fighter output is attributed to China’s “centralized, whole-of-government approach to defense production.”
The U.S. Air Force is attempting to address this gap through its Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program.This ambitious project aims to develop a sixth-generation fighter that will incorporate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and directed energy weapons. though, NGAD is still in its early stages, and its ultimate success remains uncertain.
Long-Range Missile Capabilities
China’s new PL-17 “is most likely a very long-range air-to-air missile with an estimated 300-kilometer range.” This missile “may be intended against airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, other aircraft close to the target, ground-based radar or satellites.” Its size “may restrict it to being carried externally by China’s J-16 or J-20 fighters.”
The U.S.is also developing its own long-range air-to-air missiles to counter the PL-17.These include the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile (JATM), which is designed to engage targets at extended ranges. The JATM is expected to be deployed on U.S. Navy and Air Force fighters in the coming years.
China’s Airpower Growth
The U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2024 China Military Power Report (CMPR) states that “the PLAAF and PLA Naval Aviation comprise the Indo-Pacific’s largest air force, with 3,150 aircraft—1,900 of them fighters—an increase of 400 in the last three years.” Former INDOPACOM commander Admiral philip Davidson warned that if trends persist,China could soon overtake the U.S. in total airpower, complementing its dominance on land and sea.
Tactical Air Superiority
given China’s looming quantitative fighter advantage, in an invasion of Taiwan, “the PLA would likely mass air assets over the self-governing island to achieve localized, tactical air superiority rather of fighting to achieve strategic air dominance.” This strategy would aim to quickly neutralize Taiwan’s air defenses and pave the way for a ground invasion.
Taiwan’s defense strategy relies heavily on its ability to deter a Chinese invasion.This includes investing in advanced air defense systems, developing asymmetric warfare capabilities, and strengthening its ties with the U.S. and other allies.
China’s Missile Advantage
“Beyond sheer fighter numbers, China’s missile capabilities pose an even greater threat to US air operations in the region.” The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) “has a significant hardware advantage over the US” when it comes to conventional missiles.
China “has developed an extensive array of ballistic and cruise missiles that are oftentimes more numerous and sophisticated than their US counterparts.” While “the US invests in hypersonic weapons technology, it lags behind China in growth and deployment due to high costs and the complexity of integrating those weapons into its military framework.”
This advantage is partly due to the absence of constraining arms control treaties, allowing china to make ample investments in its missile capabilities.The PLARF manages “an autonomous, intensely focused and extensive missile program that has quickly developed to unite nuclear and conventional capabilities under a single command structure.”
Counter-Intervention Strategy
The PLARF is critical in China’s counter-intervention strategy in regional conflicts.China “has 2,200 conventional ballistic missiles and enough anti-ship missiles to attack every US surface combatant in the South China Sea, with sufficient firepower to overcome each ship’s missile defenses.”
The U.S. Navy is developing new strategies and technologies to counter China’s anti-ship missile capabilities. These include deploying advanced electronic warfare systems, developing new missile defense systems, and increasing the use of unmanned vessels.
Neutralizing US Airbases
The PLARF “is expected to play a leading role in neutralizing US airbases in Japan, Guam, and other Pacific locations, launching coordinated missile attacks to destroy US aircraft on the ground and cratering runways to make them unusable.” These missile capabilities threaten the U.S.’s forward-deployed airpower,which “remains highly vulnerable due to inadequate base fortifications.”
Manny U.S. airbases in the Pacific lack hardened aircraft shelters (HAS) and individual aircraft shelters (IAS). In a worst-case scenario, “most US aircraft losses will occur on the ground.” U.S. operational concepts have assumed that its aircraft would operate from forward airfields uncontested, but this thinking “disregards China’s growing ability to strike those vulnerable facilities with missiles, aircraft and special forces,” with enough firepower to make dispersal alone an ineffective countermeasure.
The Taiwan scenario
These shortcomings could prove catastrophic in the event of a Chinese assault on Taiwan, “where a rapid US response would be critical to deterrence and defense.” Taiwan is vulnerable to defeat in the first 90 days after an invasion, with that time being the minimum required for the U.S. to marshal enough forces for military intervention. In contrast, China “can sustain major combat operations against Taiwan for six months as part of a larger blockade, with PLAAF and PLARF strikes aiming to neutralize the latter’s naval bases, coastal and air defense batteries and command and control with the option of unleashing more missile and air attacks should Taiwan continue to resist.”
If the U.S. doesn’t act fast, “the next battle for air superiority could be over before its aircraft even get off the ground.”
| nation | Active Military aircraft | Fifth-Generation Fighters |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 13,246 | 500+ (F-22, F-35) |
| china | 3,284 | 150+ (J-20) |
Counterargument: U.S. Technological Superiority
While concerns about china’s growing military capabilities are valid, some
Looking ahead, Dr. Sharma, what do you believe is the most crucial aspect for the U.S. Air Force to prioritize in the coming years to maintain an effective strategic advantage in the face of these challenges?
Interview: Dr. Anya Sharma on China’s Military Buildup and U.S.Air Dominance
Archyde News interviews Dr.Anya Sharma, a leading defense analyst, about the implications of China’s military modernization for U.S. air superiority in the Indo-Pacific.
Introduction
Archyde News: Welcome, Dr. sharma.Thank you for joining us. The issue of China’s rapidly growing military power, particularly in the realm of air capabilities, has generated significant concern.Could you provide an overview of the core challenges facing the U.S. in maintaining air dominance in the Pacific?
Dr.Sharma: Thank you for having me. The primary challenge stems from China’s complete and rapid military modernization. They are considerably increasing their fighter aircraft production, deploying advanced long-range missiles, improving electronic warfare capabilities, and enhancing pilot training. This, combined with a focus on the strategically vital First Island Chain, poses a direct threat to the U.S.’s ability to project power.
The PLAAF’s Advancement
Archyde News: The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is undoubtedly expanding its capacity. What specific advancements are most concerning in terms of eroding the U.S. advantage?
Dr. sharma: Alongside sheer numbers, the sophistication of their equipment is crucial. We are seeing advancements in stealth technology with the J-20 fighters, and the progress of long-range air-to-air missiles like the PL-17, which can target vital assets like AEW&C aircraft. Furthermore, China’s investment in advanced missile systems, and the modernization across all fighting domains, including cyber warfare, is notable.
Missile Capabilities and Their Impact
Archyde news: China’s missile arsenal is frequently enough highlighted as a key threat. Why are their missile capabilities such a significant concern for the U.S. Air Force?
Dr. Sharma: China has cultivated a formidable arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, which in many cases, surpasses that of the U.S. in sheer numbers and, in particular, in regards to long-range, conventional missile capabilities. They are developing advanced hypersonic technologies,and can threaten U.S airbases directly. This threatens US operational concepts of relying on forward airfields.
The Taiwan Scenario
Archyde News: In the context of potential conflicts in the Pacific, such as a Taiwan scenario, what are the implications of this shift in airpower?
Dr. Sharma: In the event of an invasion of Taiwan, China would likely focus on achieving tactical air superiority quickly which would include targeting airbases and air defense batteries. The U.S. response becomes critical but is complicated by these developments. Should the U.S. fail to respond in time, China could dominate the air prior to any US response.
U.S. Countermeasures and the Future
Archyde News: What strategies is the U.S. pursuing to counter these threats and maintain its edge?
Dr. Sharma: The U.S. is focusing on several key areas: the development of next-generation air-to-air missiles, enhancing cyber warfare capabilities, and strengthening cooperation with allies such as Japan and Australia.The Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program is crucial, but is presently in early stages. Upgrading airbases, hardening facilities to protect aircraft, and improvements in missile defense are also priorities.The US will likely need to improve the existing airbases and improve defenses due to China’s ability to hamper effectiveness in such areas.
The Question For Readers
Archyde News: Dr. Sharma, looking ahead, what do you believe is the most critically important aspect for the U.S. Air Force to prioritize in the coming years to maintain an effective strategic advantage in the face of these challenges? And what are your thoughts on the implications for U.S. allies in the region?
Dr. Sharma: more investment is needed. It requires a multi-faceted approach. Specifically, it needs smart investments in long-range fires, integrated air and missile defenses, and very complex advances like command and control systems. Also, U.S. allies will be caught in the crosshairs in potential conflicts. The allies will need the support,and the US will need their cooperation.
