All the polls affirm it: Joe Biden is the favorite of the American presidential election of November 3. The Democratic candidate is ahead of Donald Trump with an average of 7.5 points nationally, and 0.5 to 6.5 points in the main key states. But the Republican Party pretends to ignore these pessimistic figures. They were wrong in 2016, they are still wrong in 2020, wants to believe the entourage of the president-candidate, convinced that a “silent majority” does not respond to opinion polls or misleads them.
Even Democrats, traumatized by the 2016 election, remain skeptical. “The biggest advantage of Donald Trump is that most people still think he’s going to win. Could this be a self-fulfilling prophecy? Even if they are strongly opposed to Trump, if they think he will be the winner, then that could push some of them to stay at home, ”said US pollster John Zogby.
A solid base of voters
The American electoral system favors Donald Trump. In the United States, the presidential election is an indirect ballot which is won thanks to a majority of large voters – each state has a certain number. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won nearly three million more votes than Trump. Yet it was he who had won the vote of the big voters by tipping certain key states. A similar scenario this year cannot therefore be ruled out.
On the Internet in any case, the Trump camp seems more mobilized. According to a Swiss study based on an analysis of search engines and social networks, the Republican enjoys a clear lead. The same team of researchers predicted, against the grain, its victory in 2016.
Donald Trump has a solid base of 41-42% of voters who will not change their vote for the world. To win, he needs four or five more points, says John Zobgy. It remains to be seen whether he will manage to maintain this image of an outsider opposed to the “establishment” while, this time, he is in power.
Will the theme of “law and order” be prominent?
In any case, he can count on Joe Biden’s weaknesses, such as the lack of enthusiasm of Latino voters towards him. In the key state of Florida, for example, the Democrat’s team is worried about the vote of the Cuban minority, fiercely anti-Communist, which seems to be turning to the Republican and his anti-“radical left” message.
Donald Trump is also trying to nibble the vote of the black community, crucial for the former vice-president of Barack Obama. “Joe Biden is currently credited with 81% of the black vote against 14% for Trump,” notes John Zogby. “But it should be 90%. Even Hillary Clinton’s 89% in 2016 was not enough, especially in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. “
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Trump’s emphasis on “law and order” could also end up working in his favor. So far, polls have shown this to have had little effect. But if the urban violence continues, the numbers could move more, according to John Zogby: “If, just before the election, we talk about the Black Lives Matter movement, then Donald Trump will be able to speak to white voters, to mothers. from suburban families, to the elderly. He could frighten them with a speech about socialism and violence in the streets. But if the topic is the coronavirus and the economy, then the advantage will be on Biden’s side. “
The risk of a legal battle after the vote
The candidates are counting on the traditional “surprises” of October to score points in the home stretch. But they have to fuel them now because early voting is very popular: six out of ten voters intend to use it, compared to four out of ten in 2016. Others have decided to vote by mail because of the pandemic of Covid-19. The US Post is not prepared for such an influx of bulletins, the results may be late to be published.
Some experts even imagine a scenario in which Donald Trump would seem to win the evening of November 3 but where Joe Biden would ultimately be the winner after the counting of the ballots by correspondence. Given the tension between the two camps, if no one concedes defeat, the prospect of a legal battle is not excluded. “There could be chaos in 2020,” warns John Zogby.