Vaca Muerta Dollar: analysts see it as Massa’s new resource to stop runs

2023-09-27 17:17:00

The National Government announced this Tuesday the “Dead Cow Dollar”and new program export incentive in focus in the oil sector.

And according to analysts, the objective of this new provision of Sergio Massa It’s very clear: increase the reserves of a Central Bank with red numbersbeyond the latest IMF disbursements, and stabilize financial dollars to face, with the greatest possible tranquility, the closing of the electoral process and the last stretch of Alberto Fernández’s mandate.

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In fact, the Minister of Economy himself recognized this during the event held in the province of Neuquén. “We want to reach the October elections with stability”said.

Online, he recalled changes in the values ​​of the US currencymainly on the informal side, before STEP and stated: “You learn from mistakes. That can’t happen twice“.

The analyst Natalia Motly agreed that “the Government seeks to increase the reserves of the Central Bank and keep financial dollars stable“so that” in case you need it, stop a run against the weight in the middle of the general elections.

“Today the greatest concern is that the electoral climate and the arrival of a new government does not generate greater pressure in the exchange market and that does not translate into prices and higher inflation“he added, in dialogue with PERFIL.

It is worth remembering that, the day after the primaries, and based on the climate of uncertainty, The Central Bank decided on a 22% devaluation and raised the official exchange rate to $365.50. Regarding the Blue Dollar, on June 13, two months before the primaries, It was $484 for sale. 48 hours before the elections, the coin was located at $605.00 and, a few days after knowing the results, soared, hitting a ceiling of nearly $800.

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All this had strong pressure on pricesmainly of food and basic necessities, which was reflected in the latest variation of the monthly CPI, published by INDEC, with a figure of 12.4%, the highest in the last three decades.

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For its part, for Camilo TiscorniaDirector of C&T Economic Advisorsthe new program announced by Massa “is a direct continuation of the Soybean Dollarapplicable to the countryside, and that “seeks, now that the winter has passed and with the Gasoducto (Néstor Kirchner) operating, give an incentive for currencies to liquidate and have dollars before the elections“.

At the same time, he remarked: “This policy, as detailed, goes hand in hand with an internal price agreement, managed entirely by the Government. So The aim is to control inflationary pressure with a more favorable exchange rate“.

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Although the economist Elena Alonso, of the Grupo Broda, considered that this provision “remains well below market expectations.” in the coming months regarding the exchange rate”.

“Although they want to take 1.2 billion dollars, These measures are a patch. They seek to avoid an expectation of devaluation, but it does not do so. In fact, the Blue dollar is going up and it will rise the closer we get to October as a result of this pressure,” he concluded.

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What is the Vaca Muerta Dollar announced by Massa?

The Dead Cow Dollar It is an export incentive program focused on the oil sector. This will allow operators enter 25% of the currencies through the Cash with Settlement (CCL) exchange rate, currently at $786, for the next 60 days. While the remaining 75% must be done at Single Free Exchange Market (MULC).

This initiative aims promote the liquidation of about 1.2 billion dollars and, according to Sergio Massa, “guarantee increased investments.” In return, companies They must respect the established price agreement in August for the local market, valid until November 30.

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The announcement was made in Neuquén, a province that has the most important oil fields, companies and production levels in the country and the continent. It took place after a meeting of officials with executives from some of the most important companies that operate in Vaca Muerta, such as YPF, Tecpetrol, Pampa Energía, Pan American Energyamong other.

Massa carried this out in the prelude to the ban. This Wednesday will be the last day on which the presidential candidate for Unión por la Patria may be shown in government acts. At the end of the day, you will only have the ability to do so in events for purely electoral purposes.

Dead cow

The new Vaca Muerta Dollar aroused criticism from the opposition

Of course, like all the measures previously announced by the National Government, and those that will take place in the run-up to December 10, This was criticized by the opposition.

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Carlos Melconianchosen by presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich to be her Minister of Economy if she reaches the Casa Rosada, described as “irresponsible” the recent economic measures taken by the head of the Treasury Palace and asserted that “The Vaca Muerta dollar is a way to continue devaluing, without devaluing“.

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It makes me sad because he is a candidate for president. “If he does not have to govern, he may be a person in a scenario to come,” Melconian said in dialogue with the program. “The Juicer“, which leads Yes Paluch by Radio Rivadavia.

In addition, he said that the official exchange rate “was 20% behind inflation” and assured that, in the short term, another devaluation by the Government is imminent. “That’s why He had no choice but to take the dollar from 280 to 350 and he is going to do it again“, said the economist. And he added: “Argentina, compared to other moments in its history, does not have a major devaluation ahead. “You have to take the 350 and accommodate it at a reasonable exchange rate.”

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