The car faces a complicated 2020, not only because of the economic cooling and uncertainty about the restrictions on thermal models, but also because of the new mandatory emission targets in Europe. The goal, very ambitious, can lead to vehicle manufacturers imposing heavy fines.
Since January, the average emissions of new vehicles should not exceed 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer, a goal far from that recorded in 2019, when 118 were reached. This year already affects 95% less polluting vehicles sold ; and will reach 100% in 2021. Who exceeds must face a penalty of 95 euros per gram and kilometer exceeded, which would translate, with 2019 data in hand – when 1,258,260 cars were sold – in up to 2,750 million for its sales in Spain. At European level, the estimate is around 34,000 million euros, according to calculations by JATO.
The new limit is equivalent, in consumption (variable closely linked to emissions) to 4.1 l / 100 km of gasoline or 3.6 l / 100 km of diesel, not for a specific vehicle but for the average of all that sells Each car group. It is, therefore, an average calculation, since the objective for each company is established based on the average mass of the vehicles it markets (95 g / km is an average figure, calculated on the theoretical basis that all cars that a manufacturer would sell will weigh 1,379.88 kg).
The legislation is designed to encourage sales of zero and very low emission models, that is, electric and plug-in hybrids, which would compensate for excessive emissions from conventional models. For example, an electric car counts as two vehicles in 2020, 1.67 in 2021 and 1.33 in 2022, according to the correction factor introduced by the European Union. But we will also have to sell diesel models, which emit less CO2 than gasoline cars, the big beneficiaries of the uncertainty unleashed in recent months.
According to calculations by the federation of dealers Faconauto, to meet the objectives diesel vehicles would have to re-represent about 50% of the market, while sales of electricity should triple. Figures that, according to last year’s sales, will be very difficult to achieve. And it is that 2019 closed with a drop of 22.9% of diesel vehicle registrations, while electric vehicles barely accounted for 0.8% of registrations. On the contrary, sales of SUV cars, larger, heavier and pollutants, and gasoline increased, which led to the average emissions of vehicles growing by 0.8%, according to the consultancy MSI. .