What are the chances that the asteroid JF1 will hit Earth in May 2022

In recent days, catastrophic news emerged on social networks. Different users spoke of a asteroid called 2009 JF1 which had a high probability of impacting the Earth in 2022. The information was falsely awarded to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which caused a stir among Internet users. In this situation, astronomers clarified that the chances of this happening are slim.

According to the Institute of Astronomy (IA) of the UNAM in Ensenada, Baja California, the asteroid exists and has a size that ranges between 15 and 17 meters. Further, moves at the incredible speed of 23.92 kilometers per second. However, it is not true that it represents a considerable danger to our planet.

“There is no certainty that 2009 JF1 will hit Earth, there is a very low probability, 0.02% “said Joel Humberto Castro Chacón, Conacyt professor attached to the aforementioned institution. He also clarified that any object that crosses the Earth’s orbit is considered “potentially dangerous”, although this does not imply a near collision scenario.

“They are dangerous because the prediction of their orbit is not 100% correctas it can have a detour and move farther or closer to Earth. This is due to effects in space that objects deviate, such as gravitational pulls ”, explained the specialist.

Regarding NASA’s involvement in the fake news, Maria Dolores Maravilla Meza, researcher at the Institute of Geophysics (IGf) of the UNAM, explained that the information on 2009 JF1 may have come out of a monitoring system that has the agency called Sentry, which calculates the possibility of asteroid impact against our planet in the next century.

Along the same lines as Meza, the scientific popularizer Álex Riveiro. In Twitter, assured that if 2009 JF1 represented a potential risk to Earth, the document would be published on the NASA website. In addition, he stressed that the diameter of the object is 0.013 kilometers, or 13 meters, so even if it entered the atmosphere at some point it would disintegrate in just seconds. “You would only see a nice shooting star,” he said.

Finally, it should be remembered that the US agency itself referred to the asteroid in question in the past, which it described as an object “No danger”. Even so, it is true that it will have a greater proximity to Earth on May 6, 2022.


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