Pressure is mounting on the Biden government to enact an embargo on Russian oil imports to the United States, a move that would rob the US market of hundreds of millions of barrels a year and force it to urgently find a substitute supply , at home or more likely elsewhere.
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In 2021, some 245 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products (8% of total imports) supplied the American market from Russia, which was the fourth largest supplier to the United States. It was the highest figure ever recorded.
Having become a net exporter (exports greater than imports) in 2020, a first in the modern era, the United States remained so in 2021. The world’s leading producers, they nevertheless imported around three billion barrels a year. last.
The West Coast and East Coast of the United States more easily supplement their needs with imports than by relying on oil produced in the United States, for logistical reasons, according to the association of producers of fuel and petrochemicals ( AFPM).
It is already effective, because Russia has been the object, since last week, of a de facto oil embargo, explains Andy Lipow, of the firm Lipow Oil Associates. In the United States, the price of a gallon of gasoline (3.78 liters) crossed 4 dollars on Sunday and is approaching its absolute record (4.11 dollars), which dates from 2008.
In addition to the price of gasoline, the increase in the price of oil “will be passed on to consumers” via heating costs, the price of plane tickets, delivery costs and those of “lots of products made with petroleum “, in particular plastic, announces Mr. Lipow.
On paper, the United States has sufficient reserves to pump the equivalent of Russian barrels lost. But the production capacities are, for the time being, insufficient.
With the coronavirus pandemic, oil companies have abruptly slowed extraction, which has only gradually resumed since last year and remains 1.5 million barrels per day below its March 2020 level (11.6 million against 13.1 two years ago).
“Producers have been very cautious about this price increase,” says Stephen Schork, analyst and author of the Schork Report. “They are hesitant about investing in new boreholes”, the cost of which, in a period of high inflation, would be very high, with a longer implementation due to the current problems with the supply of materials and equipment. .
“And knowing how volatile this market is, there is no guarantee of return on investment,” adds the expert.
First foreign source of oil for the United States (61% of volumes), Canada could increase its exports to its American neighbor, as already proposed, Saturday, in a tweet, the minister of the Canadian province of Alberta , Sonya Savage.
According to several American media, the Biden government recently resumed contact with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to study the possible easing of the sanctions that have targeted the country since 2019.
In addition, the United States is actively negotiating with Iran to revive the 2015 agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. Success would lift sanctions on Iranian oil and add 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels a day to the market, according to Andy Lipow.
According to several American media, Joe Biden’s advisers are also studying the possibility of a trip to Saudi Arabia, to try to convince the kingdom to produce more black gold, which he has so far refused to do. despite soaring prices.
The acceleration in oil and gasoline prices would fuel inflation, already at its highest for 40 years and which has earned the American head of state many criticisms.
At the same time, the abolition of Russian imports would highlight Joe Biden’s reluctance to push American oil companies to pump more, to promote the energy transition. This position has already earned him many criticisms in the Republican camp.
“You want to make (Russian) oil useless? Show Putin you don’t need it. This is what the acceleration of the energy transition will allow, ”argues Mark Brownstein, vice-president of the environmental defense fund (EDF).
About 30% of Europe’s oil needs are provided by Russia, compared to only 8% for the United States. On Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his disagreement with a possible embargo, considering that the supply of Europe “(could) not be ensured otherwise for the moment”.