2023-05-26 04:26:22
AAttackers Russia have not yet achieved their goals in Ukraine. It is not clear whether Kiev’s planned counter-offensive will bring decisive success. The West continues to support the country, most recently F-16 fighter jets were promised.
Will Ukraine survive the war? And how will Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin act in the event of further defeats? moderator Maybrit Illner presented her ZDF talk under the theme “Weapons, sanctions, alliances – Ukraine is fighting for its future”.
Guests in the studio were Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), Chairwoman of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Amira Mohamed Ali, leader of the Left parliamentary group, British economic historian Adam Tooze and military expert Carlo Masala. The former Federal Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD), chairman of the American-German network Atlantic Bridge, was connected live.
According to Gabriel, an early end to the Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely: “Wars have almost always ended in a long negotiation process. And I can’t see those negotiations. That’s why I see a lot of fighting and a lot of deaths in the future.”
In particular, Ukraine’s long-awaited “spring counter-offensive” will be a turning point, said the SPD politician. “We are probably facing the worst land battle since the Second World War. We will see much worse pictures. We’re talking about 30,000 or 40,000 people on the Ukrainian side and at least as many on the Russian side. Both want the war to continue. Ukraine will definitely not back down either.”
Strack-Zimmermann disagreed that both warring parties wanted war. “Ukraine would like nothing better than for the war to end, because it is their people who are being slaughtered,” said the FDP politician. “Vladimir Putin can withdraw his troops today, and then the war will end immediately.”
Left parliamentary group leader Mohamed Ali called for more effort to get to the negotiating table with Putin. “You have to find ways,” she said. There have already been successes in the exchange of prisoners and in questions about grain. A peace initiative like the one suggested by Brazil must be supported and pursued.
Military expert Carlo Masala expressed strong doubts that this wish would come true so quickly: “There is one actor who shows no interest whatsoever in going to the negotiating table. And this is Vladimir Putin,” Masala countered.
And Strack-Zimmermann reported on conversations with deserted Russian officers: “We know from them: Putin has completely entrenched himself and only accepts information that fits his world view.” Putin also dreams of taking over the entire Ukraine, said Strack- carpenter. “This is a scenario that does not indicate at all that there are wishes for peace from the Russian side.”
“That’s why the war goes on”
The Crimean issue in particular is relevant to the outcome of the war, explained historian Adam Tooze. Putin has repeatedly stated that Crimea belongs to Russia, but that the Ukrainians want to retake it. “That’s why the war goes on,” said the professor of economic history at Cambridge University. It was impossible for both sides to hold political discussions under these circumstances.
What’s next? “Everyone is waiting for the Ukrainian offensive,” said Masala. Ukraine has been preparing the battlefield for weeks. “The so-called ‘shaping the battlefield’ by attacking tankers and Russian logistics. At the same time, the Ukrainians are causing confusion, such as in Belgorod.” However, the Ukrainians need more weapons from the West for their counter-offensive. “That’s why now is the decisive momentum.”
US President Joe Biden has already promised to train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 fighter jet. A delivery of the aircraft is becoming more and more likely, because other NATO countries are also open to it. For SPD politician Sigmar Gabriel, the fighter jets should “continuously enable Ukraine to defend itself.” Historian Tooze agreed and described the F-16 as a “security deposit” for Ukraine.
Gabriel believes that a path to peace is possible: “Where there is a bit of hope: that after the long and bloody offensive, there may be an assessment on both sides that a break must be taken,” said the former foreign minister. “That for a while the guns will be silent. And that in this situation you can then come to more serious talks internationally.”
“This war has united the West and divided the world”
China in particular will then be an important negotiating partner, said Gabriel. After all, the world looks at the conflict differently. “This war has united the West and divided the world.”
It is good that the US is talking to China. “It wasn’t like that in the beginning. Today the Americans are of the opinion that in the end the Chinese will be sitting at the negotiating table.” Masala agreed.
During the 15-month war, Russian President Putin has repeatedly threatened nuclear attacks if the West intervenes in the war. Despite increasing support for Ukraine, nothing has happened so far. “There is not only the possibility that Russia will resort to nuclear weapons,” warned Gabriel. Russia must be trusted to conduct asymmetric warfare with cyber and terrorist attacks. In this way, Russia could develop into a “rogue state”, said the former Federal Foreign Minister.
“That’s already happening,” said FDP politician Strack-Zimmermann. “The destabilization of German society has been going on for months. There are thousands of trolls trying to divide our society or spread fake news on the internet.”
The West must continue to provide support if Ukraine continues to try to ensure the integrity of its borders, including those of Crimea. “It is also in our interest that Ukraine is successful in this. Because otherwise it will not have been the last war there in this century. The war is an attack on the free western world.”
Both warring parties are largely silent about the number of victims. From Moscow it was said that 6,000 Russians were killed in the battle for Bakhmut. However, Wagner boss Yevgin Progoshin recently said in a video that more than 20,000 fighters from his mercenary force alone lost their lives in the battle.
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