World tension: What can be expected after the announcement of the annexation of Ukrainian territories to the Russian federation?

Last September 27 was the central day of the referendum carried out by the pro-Russian authorities in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Jerzon y Zaporizhia. Today Thursday, the Kremlin has announced that between 87% and 99% of citizens in those areas support their annexation to Russia. Therefore, President Vladimir Putin will formalize tomorrow his entry as part of the federation.

However, these elections have been widely questioned by the West and Ukraine for considering them “illegal” and “a farce”. In addition, they took place at a time when, 7 months after the Russian invasion began, the military operation is at a turning point.

On the other hand, the I’LL TAKE has considered that the verified leaks in the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2, which join Russia and Europe, appear to be the product of “deliberate acts of sabotage”, something Russia has denied and instead has indicated the intervention of a “third country” in said escape.

With this climate of tensions that seems to enter a new stage after the accession of the aforementioned 4 Ukrainian territories to Russia, how could this impact the world map? What measures could Ukraine and Western countries take in the face of this fact?

RPP News talked about it with the diplomat Eduardo Ponce deVivancothe professor and international analyst Farid Kahhad and the journalist and analyst ramiro escobar.

Eduardo Ponce de Vivanco: “It will have consequences in all scenarios of world politics”

Eduardo Ponce deVivanco, diplomat and former Vice Chancellor of the Republicconsidered that the new measures announced by the Russian state “will have global consequences”, considering the “illegality” of the popular consultation carried out in the 4 regions of Ukraine.

“The referendum that has been held in those territories is ridiculous. (In a referendum), the ballot boxes are transparent and the votes have to be seen. It is a farce. They wanted to cover something that is obviously arbitrary with legality,” he said. Ponce.

Likewise, he considered that the consequences will affect internally Russiafueling the climate of citizen protests in that country, derived from the war in Ukraine.

“I don’t know what else you can do Putin in respect of Ukraine because what you are executing already has very severe repercussions within the organization itself. Russia. Russian citizens who could be recruited for the Armed Forces. and summoned to integrate them as reservists are pouring out of the country, “she considered.

In this sense, Ponce pointed out that the Russian population that opposes the war “is suffering from the conscription that is being called Putin to form a reserve force of the armed forces”.

“Those citizens, who are going to be victims of the arbitrariness and madness of Putinthey are escaping from Russia“, he referred.

What can the international community do?

For Ponce, a possible way out of the crisis could come from the General Assembly of the Organization of the United Nations (UN).

“I think it’s the HIM, through the General Assembly, not the Security Council, who intervenes on the basis of the “United for Peace” resolution that was applied to the Korean War and its Security Council could not lift a finger because of the veto of the USSR at that time. Currently, the Security Council also cannot lift a finger over Russia’s veto. So, the way to overcome this situation is to turn to the General Assembly, which has a precise precedent to apply, which is this “Union for Peace” resolution that allowed the US and its Western allies to intervene against the Chinese invasion of the Korean peninsula,” he explained.

In turn, he maintained that the “only possible favorable prognosis” would be the departure of Putin of the Russian government “or something that means a complete reversal of its policy towards Ukrainesomething that I see very difficult”, remarked.

Farid Kahhat: “Any attack against those provinces will now be considered an attack against Russian territory”

The professor and diplomat Farid Kahhat considered that, “from the point of view of international law”, none of the actions that have decided the annexation of the 4 territories to Russia have been legal.

“Furthermore, holding a referendum under foreign military occupation in a context of war does not have any democratic legitimacy, not to mention that the results are absolutely implausible, nowhere does a proposal like this get 96% or 97% of the votes,” he said.

Nevertheless, Kahhat considered that this would be a measure so that any attack on those territories would be considered an attack on Russia and eventually resort to nuclear action.

“From the point of view of Russian law, what Putin is meant to say that any attack on those provinces would now be considered an attack on Russian territory. Furthermore, while the nuclear doctrine Russian maintained that he would only use nuclear weapons if the very existence of his state was at risk, now Putin has redefined that to say that any attempt to violate the territorial integrity Russian could receive a nuclear response,” he explained.

However, he maintained that nuclear threats are a “bluff” that seeks to intimidate internationally, since “it could end up affecting the population of the Russian zone itself.” In this sense, he considered that Russian citizens, with the advance of war, have found new reasons to oppose military actions in Ukraine.

“There are people who did not protest against the war, but protest against the mobilization of 300,000 troops that could implicate them. They are people who are trying to escape forced recruitment to go fight a war where their risk of death is relatively high, because At this moment, there is more of a Ukrainian offensive,” he said.

What can the international community do?

Kahhat considered that no sanction against Russia by the European Union or the US will “immediately” seek peace with Ukraine.

“But there are measures, such as putting limits on the prices paid for Russian oil imports. Whether that would work or not is debatable. There are Russian exports that are not sanctioned, such as food, gas, oil. Sanctions could be applied against those exports. In the case of oil and gas, not so much prohibiting these imports because Europe still depends largely on them. But putting a limit on the price paid,” he said.

Ramiro Escobar: “These are referendums typical of dictatorships, of tyrannies, where there is no opposition”

The international journalist and analyst ramiro escobar criticized the result of the referendums in the 4 Ukrainian regions, not only because of the way they were carried out but because of their result.

“In the Donetsk province, it has won with 99% in favor of Russia. Those are referendums typical of dictatorships, of tyrannies, where there is no opposition. A result of this type is practically impossible, in other places there are 93% “, he affirmed.

In that sense, Escobar considered that the Russian government has made “two moves” in the face of a situation that has become “complicated” since, according to what it said, it would have expected an “easier” military operation in Ukraine.

“One is to call the reservists, it is estimated that there will be about 600,000 to increase the number of troops on the battlefield; and, at the same time, quickly call a referendum so that, with both things, they try to close their influence and domain on Lugansk and Donetsk, which are the regions where there was already a confrontation between pro-Russians and Ukrainians for 5 years,” he said.

Likewise, he maintained that the referendum “was quickly set up with military pressure” which, “obviously”, he was going to win.

“There was no way I could lose them. There is more than one version of people who say that they were forced to vote and threatened if they didn’t go (…) This movement has been for the purpose of consolidating power and, at the same time, doing a threat of power saying I have more soldiers,” he remarked.

Secondly. Escobar he argued that annexation is unsustainable since most of the world considers it illegal.

“It will be something difficult to maintain over time. Suddenly it can be maintained by force (…), but if it does not have the approval of the majority of the world community, as is happening, then it can be a symbolic gesture ceremonious, to announce the annexation of those territories, but that, from the point of view of international legality, is not going to be accepted,” he said.

What can the international community do?

Escobar considered that, with this new movement, Putin continues to damage its international image and that it is very difficult for it to politically overcome this lack of legitimacy.

“The other problem is that it can exacerbate the war. The attack on the Nord Stream pipeline and that could also be something that is a sabotage against the gas pipelines (…) If that happens on top of that, the prognosis is complicated. Putin will hardly be able to politically overcome such a moment. In the logic that at some point some kind of negotiation is assumed to stop the war, it will be more difficult for the negotiation to take place because the Ukrainians will not want to negotiate with someone who is practically seizing two regions of their territory “, he held.

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