[뉴스외전 포커스] What is the opinion of the passport supporters about the suspension of the ‘interview on the way to work’?

Jongchan Bae / Director of Insight K

President-ruling party state administration support also ‘rising together’ ‥ “Technical rebound due to a sense of crisis”

“Agreement on government investigations…Democratic Party Kim Eui-gyeom and Jang Gyeong-tae’s effects are evenly reflected”

The decline of the Democratic Party… “The influence of Lee Jae-myung’s prosecution’s investigation is not small”

“20s and 30s – the middle class is a wait-and-see tax”

“The investigation continues… the related information continues to come out, Lee Jae-myung – a burden on the Democratic Party”

“I don’t think it will be easy to apologize for the corruption of Lee Jae-myung’s aides… Concern about the feeling of admitting the charges against him”

“Public opinion on the suspension of ‘door stepping’ is ‘thinning’…”Not doing it raises approval ratings”

“There is also the possibility of a political ‘total solar eclipse phenomenon’ that will cover the results of the World Cup.”

◀ Anchor ▶

Let’s take a look at the public opinion situation with Bae Jong-chan, Director of Insight K.

welcome.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

hello?

◀ Anchor ▶

Realmeter is new. What is the most noticeable part?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

It’s supposed to be some kind of weakling phenomenon. So it’s not a specific response layer, but a little bit higher overall. It was a situation where the presidential approval rating could not rise due to the strong fire phenomenon at the very boiling point when the controversy was in full swing, but in the weak fire phenomenon, the conservatives appeared. It can be seen that such a case has been reflected, it has been activated, and it can be seen as a phenomenon of a technical rebound due to a sense of crisis. Or, you can think that President Yoon Seok-yeol is taking the reflective benefit of the negative perception of Rep. Kim Eui-gyeom and Rep. Jang Gyeong-tae, but it is not easy for me to pick this up and talk about it.

However, it went up a little more evenly than the overall characteristic. If you look at it very recently, the three issues, Mrs. Kim Gun-hee and MBC, and the future of Minister Lee Sang-min related to the Itaewon disaster were very strong, but now they are a little weak. It should be seen as a technical rebound in which conservatives and President Yoon Seok-yeol’s supporters gathered in a weak payment state.

◀ Anchor ▶

However, the Democratic Party fell slightly again.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

Yes.

◀ Anchor ▶

The power of the people The ruling party is rising slightly.

Is it the same cause?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

Maybe that’s the cause, and in the case of the party’s approval rating, isn’t the auto-response survey especially the Democratic Party’s approval rating high? If so, this means that it is still a bit of a weak money phenomenon, but what are the negative factors of the Democratic Party of Korea? Then, there may be lawmakers Kim Eui-gyeom and Jang Gyeong-tae, but Lee Jae-myung’s investigation will be the biggest. In the Gallup Korea survey, which was announced on Friday when the part related to this investigation was announced last week, the Democratic Party’s approval rating went down by 1 percentage point. This can be seen as the reason for the influence of the middle class and the MZ generation.

◀ Anchor ▶

So, the alleged part of CEO Lee Jae-myeong had some influence because the prosecution’s investigation is coming out every moment. There was a report last week that there were not a few people who evaluated that the investigation itself was a kind of politics.

Nevertheless, since the continuous fact is reported in the media anyway, it has an effect.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

It can’t be seen that there is no impact. Because, the more specific it is, at least in other age groups or ideologically, progress or conservatism is already solidified, but what is still affected is the MZ generation and the middle class in their 20s and 30s. If there are a lot of details related to the investigation that are a little more specific, it means that it cannot be affected again. The material content itself is also affected by a considerable amount of content.

◀ Anchor ▶

If so, how much concrete evidence will the prosecution proceed with the investigation in the future? This will be the key.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s right. That’s part of it. As a result, how much transparency, fairness, basis, and evidence are there in the prosecution’s investigation? Because as CEO Lee Jae-myeong, there is no choice but to draw a line. Some people, both internally and externally, express regret. In the past, when former President Lee Myung-bak or former President Roh Moo-hyun’s aides were involved in corruption, he expressed regret.

This is a slightly different matter. Because this is a story at the time when the former president was in office, and now, if the representative of the opposition party admits to the investigation part, this part can spread another perception. However, despite this, investigations continued to pour in related to CEO Lee Jae-myung, and his aides were arrested. And the part where the investigation continues and the related content continues to come out must be seen as a burden to Representative Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party.

◀ Anchor ▶

But now, in a situation where aides are completely denying the allegation, the prosecution’s position is trying to prove that these aides are related to CEO Lee Jae-myung.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

Yes.

◀ Anchor ▶

In such a situation, I don’t think it will be easy for CEO Lee Jae-myung to apologize for these aides.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s the part. So that’s part of what I’m talking about. Even within the party, there is talk of an apology, but the moment you talk about an apology, then what do you think of the MZ generation or the middle class?

◀ Anchor ▶

I think you will have such a concern that you may feel like admitting your charges.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

there is an accusation Then, it is only a matter of time before they are summoned, investigated, arrested, and arrested. If this happens, CEO Lee Jae-myung’s support base will be further demolished. But the important thing in the future is whether there will be specific charges as you said. To what extent are the allegations related to former general manager Yoo Dong-kyu, Kim Man-bae, Hwacheon Daeyu’s major shareholder, or Daejang-dong’s CEO Lee Jae-myeong? This part is more important, and there may be legal factors like this, but these public opinion evaluations are bound to change from moment to moment. In this case, to what extent the middle class or the MZ generation is affected and the change in approval rating occurs. Although the results of the Real Meter survey have declined slightly, it is a higher approval rating than the people’s strength. And Gallup Korea is also within the margin of error, but 1 percentage point has gone down, but it is higher than the people’s strength. When the approval rating falls by more than 5% than the people’s strength, and if the approval rating of the Democratic Party goes down to 20%, that can also be a considerable threat to the Democratic Party and CEO Lee Jae-myung.

◀ Anchor ▶

Yes. If you look at the party support rating, it will indicate several things. It seems to be clearly showing that the middle class’s thoughts on the prosecution’s investigation are not yet biased to either side.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

It shows clearly. So, in some surveys, the approval rating of the Democratic Party is very high, but I think we need to look at that part a little carefully. Looking at the surveys of NBS’s four regularly released public opinion polls, MBC and Korea Research International’s surveys, and Korea Gallup’s surveys, there has been no significant change in the party’s approval ratings yet.

How do the voters who are watching this in the future, who have a strong moderate personality, and the respondents view this? Of course, the decisive criterion is how clear the charges are in the investigation. This part will be the key, and if it actually becomes clear and grounded, it will be an obstacle to the Democratic Party or Representative Lee Jae-myung, but on the contrary, this is not clear.

◀ Anchor ▶

Well, in the meantime, there have been rumors, but nothing much has come out, and on the contrary, I think I have no choice but to look in the opposite direction.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

Yes. It’s bound to blow the wind. In a recent investigation, whether you trust the prosecution or trust Lee Jae-myung in relation to the presidential election fund contest, if this question comes up, it will inevitably become a burden for the prosecution.

◀ Anchor ▶

So, the most important thing for the prosecution is always what kind of evidence to prove what specific charges. As a result, the political situation in the future will inevitably fluctuate.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s key, that’s it.

◀ Anchor ▶

If so, look at the specific part of the rest of the president’s approval rating. How do people view the suspension of doorstepping?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

Regarding the suspension of door stepping, there are opinions that it is inappropriate, that it should not be stopped, and that it should be continued, and there is a slight difference in width. I don’t know if you can show the results of the Gallup Korea survey in a graph.

◀ Anchor ▶

43% of respondents said they should stop, 3 percentage points higher than they should continue.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s right. However, even in the supporters of the people’s strength, such a different sentiment than before is also showing a reaction to door stepping. That’s because if we analyze it as a big data island trend, even if you don’t look at the numbers, it’s the doorstepping that started right on May 11th. It was quite effective until mid-June. In giving the meaning of direct communication with the President. However, since mid-June, President Yoon Seok-yeol’s sensitive remarks continue to come out. In relation to that, who was a minister with expertise in the Moon Jae-in administration? Athletes do not look at the scoreboard. I don’t care about the meaning of polls. You can be quite sensitive to these limits. Also, there is no choice but to answer political questions, and recently, a collision occurred while receiving questions due to the exclusion of MBC reporters.

So, regarding doorstepping, the reason why the MZ generation and the middle class, where President Yoon Seok-yeol should gain more support, came out quite negative public opinion was because the president’s message did not become a channel to solve the problem first, but rather amplified the problem. Rather, not doorstepping Well, many people may wonder, but if you look at the data, not doorstepping can rather help President Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating. In fact, last week, when doorstepping was not performed, and the results of the survey announced today this week, President Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating went up.

◀ Anchor ▶

So, the critics of President Yoon Seok-yeol viewed door stepping itself negatively. Some, I continued to be skeptical about the ability of doorstepping itself, so I was against it, but the supporters were in favor. However, since I didn’t do it, doorstepping would never have a good effect on President Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating, and there are many people who were inclined to not do it because of this judgment. Can you see it like this?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

I mean. So, in the case of continuing doorstepping, it will be in line with President Seok-Yeol Yoon’s strong will to communicate. In the meantime, he has pointed out the problem, but it was President Seok-Yeol Yoon, not anyone, who had a strong will to do it. However, even if we evaluated that part, there was little positive effect on President Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating through door stepping. Rather, if there were a lot of negative factors, wouldn’t it be possible to increase the approval rating just by not doing this…

◀ Anchor ▶

There are expectations from supporters.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

It was possible, but in fact, the survey announced last week In the results of the public opinion poll announced this week, the president’s approval rating rose even a little.

◀ Anchor ▶

Regarding the rest of the Yongsan Disaster investigation, we are still on the lookout.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

Yes, but since public opinion on the state affairs investigation was high, the people had no choice but to accept this part. why? The reason for not accepting it could not be found anywhere in public opinion, and even in the supporters of the people’s power, if not all, why can’t they investigate state affairs? It is only when a government investigation is conducted and it is clearly stated that it is possible to eliminate controversies that may arise after that. Because it was so high in public opinion, a government investigation is underway, but what is not resolved in relation to the Itaewon disaster on 10.29 is a measure of responsibility for people. What to do with the part still related to Minister Lee Sang-min? The fact that this part has no choice but to keep coming up is today, not another day for the Democratic Party. Because this is about a month after the 10.29 disaster. Is there a possibility or not that the current president will react to the story of dismissing Minister Lee Sang-min? There won’t be much. Then, in the end, this part has no choice but to be reflected in public opinion somehow.

◀ Anchor ▶

I’ll have to watch that. What public opinion will come out?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s right.

◀ Anchor ▶

However, if you look at the previous polls, the public opinion that the top leaders such as Minister Lee Sang-min should be dismissed is much higher. But for the government, just look at the current situation. It looks like it’s holding up. I don’t think that would have a positive effect on public opinion. But it has risen slightly. How does this work?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

It will be a burden. The approval rating now rose by 1 percentage point last week, Gallup Korea, and then by 3 percentage points in Real Meter announced today, even without taking action against Minister Lee Sang-min. So, it is not a sign that Minister Lee Sang-min is okay. It is separate from that, and it is a burden to Minister Lee Sang-min. Since President Seok-Yeol Yoon is not moving with a firm grip, there has been no significant change in the support base, as well as the effect of overseas tours, and we win Ghana right away. So, in the case of 2008, Park Tae-hwan won a gold medal in the 400m freestyle at the Beijing Olympics in August when the approval rating of former President Lee Myung-bak was very low. At that time, the content of our broadcast was also reported by MBC, Park Tae-hwan! Taehwan Park! At the same time, the approval rating of President Lee Myung-bak, who had an approval rating of 20%, rose to 30%.

What I am saying is that the political total solar eclipse will inevitably continue unless action is taken against Minister Lee Sang-min. why? Today, whether we are 2:1 or 3:1 in Ghana, it is MBC broadcast. Even if you see a winning scene through this, then the president’s approval rating, which will be investigated the day after tomorrow, can rise even a little, by the effect of enhancing national prestige and the so-called national representative. But if not, a kind of political total solar eclipse for not taking these steps. It could be a reason to hide the effect itself.

◀ Anchor ▶

Right now, from what you’re talking about, you seem to be assuming that some of these other factors will prevent the outcome of a sporting event from having a positive impact on the outcome of a World Cup. You seem to be predicting.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s the part. So, the effect of overseas tours could have increased by 5% or 7% if the effect of only visiting Korea was taken into account, but the reason why it could not go up was because of this kind of total solar eclipse phenomenon that covers up. The part related to MBC, Kim Kun-hee and Minister Lee Sang-min. If these parts are slightly alleviated or resolved, the approval rating can go up.

◀ Anchor ▶

If so, is the response to the public opinion demanding responsibility from Minister Lee Sang-min or Prime Minister I mentioned earlier that we are still watching this situation go back?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

sure. is being maintained. Depending on how this situation is handled, the president’s approval rating can go up or go down.

◀ Anchor ▶

Let’s see how public opinion resolves that part. I’m watching like this. You mean you can interpret it that way?

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s right. Because I even did a government investigation. In addition, there was also a promise that President Yoon Seok-yeol would take action after finding out the truth. At least the middle class will watch that part at least once. That deadline is approaching by the minute, and I don’t think it will be past the end of the year.

◀ Anchor ▶

It won’t be past the end of the year. Some parts won’t be past the end of the year…

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

that evaluation. The evaluation of the actions taken by those responsible for the Itaewon 10.29 disaster will not be completed until the end of the year.

◀ Anchor ▶

The wait-and-see public opinion will not wait and see until the end of the year.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s right.

◀ Anchor ▶

Before that, for example, whether Minister Lee Sang-min endured or was expelled, public opinion would be evaluated.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

It has the end-of-year effect and the beginning of the year effect. Then, at the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, I want to see the economy or new issues, but old problems and old problems have not been resolved. Then, the positive or negative evaluation of the unresolved part is made.

◀ Anchor ▶

A firm evaluation will be made.

◀ Bae Jong-chan/Insight K Director ▶

That’s what it can be.

◀ Anchor ▶

I will listen to what you have to say today.

thank you

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