Russia is not only an important oil and gas supplier, but also a major producer of industrial metals such as aluminium, nickel, copper, cobalt, palladium and platinum. Many of these metals are labeled as strategic because they are essential to the transition to carbon-neutral energy supply. This is high on the agenda not only in the West, but also in China. Even if the West imposed severe sanctions, Russia would continue to find buyers for its coveted natural resources – and at good prices.
Monthly Archives
February 2022
“Russian-Ukrainian conflict” JPMorgan: Russia’s economy will soon fall into recession |
written by Alexandra Hartman Editor-in-Chief
JPMorgan Chase became one of the first Wall Street banks to assess Russia’s economy following its invasion of Ukraine triggered Western economic sanctions, and it was pessimistic.
JPMorgan Chase strategists warned in their latest report on Monday (28th), “We tentatively assume that the Russian economy will contract by a seasonally adjusted 20% in the second quarter and 3.5% for the full year. But the margin of error for any guess is currently Very high, and the risks are heavily skewed to the downside. Additionally, we believe Russia’s growing political and economic isolation will undermine Russia’s growth potential over the next few years, thus reducing Russia’s trend growth rate to 1.0% from 1.75% previously.”
The bank’s strategy team added that the Russian economy might enter a recession.
The Western world launched a new round of sanctions once morest Russia over the weekend. Western allies start blocking “specific” Russian banks from accessing the SWIFT payment system. The decision essentially deprives Russia of access to global financial markets, exposing its economy to a potentially severe recession.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said that in the decision, the Russian central bank’s reserves were effectively frozen.He noted that the country has regarding 630 billionDollarof foreign exchange reserves, most of which may be deposited directly with G10 banks and central banks.
“These sanctions will almost certainly have an impact on the Russian economy, which is now heading towards a deep recession and capital controls,” the JPMorgan team added.
Meanwhile, oil major BP said it would exit its 19.75% stake in Russian state oil company Rosneft, for which it will pay 25 billionDollarhuge cost. BP has been doing business in Russia for 30 years.
The Russian ruble tumbled more than 20 percent on Monday as citizens of the country were rumored to have begun queuing at ATMs to withdraw cash.
To this end, the Central Bank of Russia raised the key interest rate from 9.5% to 20%. Russian banks have also moved to restrict brokers from selling foreign securities, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Delivery, deadlines, European coordination… How will the delivery of arms be organised?
written by Alexandra Hartman Editor-in-Chief
Tanks, planes, assault rifles, helmets, ammunition… Less than a week following the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, some twenty European countries responded to calls from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on arms deliveries.
On Sunday, Brussels announced that it would release 450 million euros to buy arms for the benefit of Ukraine, putting “an end to the taboo that the European Union does not supply arms to belligerents”, declared Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, on Sunday. Transport, deadlines, European coordination… How are grenades, tanks or combat aircraft sent in time of war? 20 Minutes make the point.
Europe responds present
It only took a few days for the majority of European countries to provide military support to Ukraine by announcing the shipment of arms. And it was Germany that opened the ball on Saturday, announcing the delivery of 1,400 anti-tank rocket launchers, 500 Stinger surface-to-air missiles, nine howitzers and 14 armored vehicles.
Rifles, machine guns, anti-tank weapons, shells, helmets, ammunition… The Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Romania, Sweden, Italy, Denmark and Croatia have also promised deliveries forthcoming military equipment.
On the French side, the government confirmed this weekend the additional delivery of defense equipment to the Ukrainian authorities as well as fuel support, the presidency said on Sunday, without giving details on the type of these weapons. For its part, the French general staff announced the imminent arrival of 4 Mirage 2000-5 fighter planes intended to “reinforce the air defense of the Baltic countries”.
Poland, logistics platform
If the weapons come from national stocks, the deliveries are coordinated by the European Union. The 450 million euros announced by Brussels will be released via the “European Peace Facility”, a fund which is not part of the common EU budget but which is endowed with 5 billion euros, making it possible to “reimburse Member States which have taken from their national arms stocks and give a “European hat” to these arms deliveries”, explained a European official interviewed by AFP.
Discussing with EU Defence Ministers the situation on the ground in #Ukraine following #Russia’s invasion, and how to further support Ukraine’s armed forces and use our €500 million support package.#StandWithUkraine #EUDefencehttps://t.co/aqbHrw7aZX pic.twitter.com/AiMnj8Uymh
– Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) February 28, 2022
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“Since there is a full-fledged war in Ukraine, and we want to do everything to support Ukraine, we decided to use our capabilities to supply weapons, lethal weapons […] to the Ukrainian army for a value of 450 million euros”, said Josep Borrellalso vice-president of the European Commission, on Sunday.
The latter also confirmed that these weapons were going to be delivered to Poland, which “has offered to serve as a logistical hub for the transfer of this material assistance to Ukraine”. But easier said than done, according to General Vincent Desportes, professor of strategy at Sciences Po and HEC and former director of the School of War, with 20 Minutes “There is a gap between the decision and the delivery of armaments. The question of logistics is a major problem. A problem that European defense ministers will have to resolve on Tuesday during a meeting on the financing of arms deliveries, as well as on the delivery of the latter.
The land route, the only option
Because if deliveries can be organized by sea, land or air, Vincent Desportes believes that we can already eliminate the last option. “Currently, delivering weapons by air is totally impossible because Russia has control of Ukrainian airspace. Any plane entering Ukraine can be destroyed immediately,” explains the general, who adds: “It is really not certain that Westerners would take the risk, it would be an act of war, with all that that entails. The maritime option is not necessarily better. “Russia controls the Sea of Azov, south of Ukraine, and obviously we cannot go through Russia or Crimea,” continues the general, who adds that it is also impossible to go through the Black Sea, in the southwest of Ukraine, due to the presence of the Soviet fleet.
The land route remains. If it appears to be the one and only solution, it poses many problems. “The weapons have to arrive in trucks, probably those of NATO, as far as Poland, to be unloaded and then loaded into Ukrainian trucks. The Russians are following this closely and might attack these trucks on Ukrainian soil”, explains the specialist, who also points out that the Polish and Ukrainian roads are, for the time being, totally congested by Ukrainian refugees who are fleeing to other places. countries, especially in Poland.
How long ?
After weapons, logistics and funding, there remains the question of deadlines. How soon can Ukraine expect to receive this material? The first deliveries have already taken place this weekend, several European officials said on Sunday. But for Vincent Desportes, it will take several days, even weeks, to deliver everything. “Shipping boxes of grenades by land is doable quickly. But delivering planes seems much more complicated to me, ”analyzes the specialist.
Ukrainian Intelligence Suggests Belarus Ready to Join Invasion
written by Alexandra Hartman Editor-in-Chief
Washington (CNN) —- A Ukrainian government official told CNN that Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Belarus it is “ready to participate perhaps directly” in the invasion of Ukraine, “in addition to allowing the Russians to use its territory and cross the border.”
A second source close to the Ukrainian government told CNN that in addition to Ukrainian intelligence, the Biden administration has also conveyed to the Ukrainian government that Belarus is preparing to join the Russian invasion.
The intelligence sparked new concern within the Biden administration. A senior administration official said the White House is closely watching the actions taken by Belarus and is prepared to impose further sanctions on the country.
In a sign of growing turmoil in the region, the United States announced on Monday that it would suspend operations at its embassy in Belarus.
The Washington Post reported for the first time that Belarus (also known as Belarus) was preparing to send soldiers to Ukraine, citing a US administration official. The White House declined to comment. CNN has reached out to the US State Department for comment.
Talks began Monday between Russia and Ukraine near the border with Belarus as Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth day.
A senior Biden administration official says the White House is closely watching actions taken by Belarus and is prepared to impose further sanctions on the country amid reports that Belarusian forces might join Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.
“We have said that as long as Belarus continues to aid and abet Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, it will also face consequences,” the senior administration official said. “We’ve already put some of those measures in place. Those costs will continue to rise much higher.” The US Treasury Department issued sanctions once morest 24 Belarusian individuals and entities last week.
Announcing the decision to suspend operations at the US Embassy in Belarus, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken cited the “unprovoked and unwarranted attack by Russian military forces in Ukraine,” but he did not point out any intelligence information regarding possible military action by Belarus. Non-emergency employees and their family members will also be allowed to leave the US Embassy in Moscow, Blinken said.
‘If required’
Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko said last week that Belarusian troops might join the invasion “if necessary.”
“Our troops are not participating in any way in this operation. We are not going to justify ourselves here regarding our participation or non-participation in this conflict. I repeat one more time. Our troops are not there but if necessary, if Belarus and Russia need them, they will be there,” Lukashenko said in a tape on the YouTube channel of the state-run Belta news agency.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to Belarusians as “neighbors” on Sunday.
“Belarusians, this is also a referendum for you. You decide who you are and who you will become. How you would look in the eyes of your children. How you would look in the eyes of others. In the eyes of your neighbors. And we we are your neighbors,” he said.
Zelensky’s office said Lukashenko called the Ukrainian president on Sunday to discuss Monday’s meeting.
“Politicians agreed that the Ukrainian delegation will meet the Russian delegation without preconditions at the Ukraine-Belarus border near the Pripyat River,” Zelensky’s office said. “Aleksander Lukashenko has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the trip, meeting and return of the Ukrainian delegation.”
Belarus announced on Sunday that the country had renounced its non-nuclear status in a referendum that day. According to the Central Election Commission of Belarus, 78.63% of the population eligible to vote participated in Sunday’s referendum, of which 65.16% voted in favor of approving a new constitution that will eliminate the country’s non-nuclear status. and will give Lukashenko the opportunity to run for two additional terms in office.
In theory, the new constitution might allow Russia to put nuclear weapons back in Belarus for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, when Belarus gave up its arsenal and became a nuclear-weapon-free zone.
Amendments and additions to the constitution approved in Sunday’s referendum will take effect within 10 days, according to Lukashenko’s office.
CNN’s Hannah Ritchie and Josh Pennington contributed to this report.