May 23, 2022

The parliamentary elections station is the beginning of the real struggle over the regime, not the end. This is confirmed by the degree of mobilization that followed polling day. The new balances put the country in front of another type of confrontation that will appear in the entitlements that complement the entitlement of May 15, from the election of the Speaker of Parliament and the formation of the government, then the election of a President of the Republic, as well as the management of life files.

It seems clear from monitoring the positions that the majority of the parties feel that the country has entered a new era, the most dangerous aspect of which is its ambiguity, which does not hide the fact that there are those who want confrontation as its main title, and its first test is the election of Nabih Berri as Speaker of the new Parliament. With the exception of his “Development and Liberation” bloc, which nominated him the day before yesterday, and the “Loyalty to the Resistance” bloc and some of their allies, the majority of the parliamentary blocs raised the white paper in his face, although this would not prevent him from winning the seat for a seventh term. But it is likely that his victory this time misses the taste of victory. In any case, the session to elect the Speaker of the Council, which Berri (being the head of the age) must call for a maximum in the first week of next June, is still not available so far, and it is subject to intensive contacts to reduce the atmosphere of tension that accompanied the announcement of blocs and votes Parliamentary refused to vote for him.

The positions of the end of last week indicated what the coming days will bring, starting with the reaffirmation of the two largest Christian blocs, their refusal to vote for Berri. The head of the “Forces” Party, Samir Geagea, reiterated that the forces would not elect him, and the same matter, albeit evasively, was referred to by the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gibran Bassil, in the “victory celebration” last Saturday, when he asked: “What prevents there are other candidates for the presidency of the parliament? Representatives,” setting a “list of conditions” for Berri’s re-election, from which it is understood that the current bloc will not elect him.
Despite that, behind the scenes, there is a lot of talk regarding opening the battle for the parliament’s presidency “is not directed once morest Berri personally,” but rather is a battle over “the position of the deputy speaker of parliament,” which some want as a price for voting for Berri. Prominent sources say that “in the current stage, everyone needs everything, and therefore everyone is raising their price in order to make a profit. Since Berri this time does not guarantee an overwhelming majority and needs a high output, some believe that he has to pay for a number of votes to save him face.” Other sources express the fear that “there are parties that want to push the country towards a major confrontation, Knowing that half of the electoral battle waged by Hezbollah and the Amal movement aimed to ensure that there was no breach in any of the Shiite seats to ensure that there was no competitor for the presidency of the Council, in addition to the importance of the site for them, especially in light of the internal and external circumstances surrounding the country.

It is possible that Aounists and other independents will leave the choice to the MPs to vote for Berri

Al-Akhbar learned that this week will witness an intensification of contacts and deliberations. In addition to the efforts led by Hezbollah, there was information regarding a meeting that will bring together Berri and the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, to “discuss the latest developments and the results of the elections and new blocs in the parliament and agree on how to coordinate in the next stage.” As for the Free Patriotic Movement, its sources said that “the bloc has not yet discussed collectively the issue of the presidency of the council, and it is supposed to hold a meeting this week to discuss several issues; Including voting. While informed sources talked regarding the possibility that the Aounists and other independents would resort to leaving the deputies to choose to vote for the parliament speaker, amid calls for a boycott of the session by some opponents of Berri’s election, the features of another battle began to emerge between the forces on the one hand and the “transformational” and “sovereign” forces », whose address is the website of the Vice-President of the Council. The forces insist on seizing the position in favor of Ghassan Hasbani and have begun to use external forces to persuade the new MPs to support him in the face of the current candidate, Elias Bou Saab, knowing that these tend to nominate the elected MP Melhem Khalaf and are counting on him obtaining great support even from traditional forces, and that “independents” The “changers” have not yet agreed among themselves on a common formula, as their sources indicate that “there are coordination meetings that will be held this week to discuss a number of options; Among them is the ability to create a political framework as a parliamentary bloc in which they maintain a kind of differentiation.”
Contrary to the inflamed atmosphere at home, external data suggest the existence of initiatives that would ease the tension, including contacts initiated by the French since before the elections with political forces, including Hezbollah, during which they stressed that they are committed to helping Lebanon, and that there are efforts to hold conferences and meetings to launch the wheel. Reforms to prevent collapse, while informed sources indicate that “the Iranian-Saudi negotiations have reached an advanced stage and include efforts by both parties aimed at cooling the arenas in which there are clashes, and this may reflect positively on Lebanon in the coming period, which will start by calling for monitoring media statements.” As for the Americans, they remain silent without presenting negative or positive signals, except for stressing the importance of the maritime border demarcation file for them.