June 15, 2022

Financial Associated Press, June 14 (Reporter Gao Yanyun) At present, no less than 12 securities companies have released their mid-term strategies for 2022. How do institutions judge the trend of A-shares in the second half of this year, and which sectors are collectively optimistic regarding the securities companies’ research institutes? Related issues have attracted the attention of investors.

The investment opportunities of A-shares in the second half of the year have been recognized by many leading brokerages. CICC believes that the current valuation of A-shares is at a low level in the historical range and has a mid-line value; CSC Securities expects that following the new round of policy increase, the market will be in It is expected to go up once more in the third quarter; Huatai Securities said that the general trend of A-shares in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and the inflection point of performance appeared from the mid-year report season to October, entering a reversal market, and releasing market elasticity following October; Guotai Junan bluntly stated that the operating range of the Shanghai Composite Index moved up , the callback is a good opportunity to increase positions.

Is the investment style in the second half of the year a value or a growth strategy? Institutions have not formed consistent expectations, but the growth style has attracted more attention.

CICC believes that the opportunity for the market style to switch to growth requires attention to the progress of overseas inflation and China’s steady growth; Guotai Junan is optimistic regarding growth companies that benefit from policy support and the demand recovery brought by the incremental economy. Growth stocks are selected for corrections; Ping An Securities said that growth is still an important allocation direction for the market in the second half of the year; Everbright Securities predicts that in the second half of the year, under the background of declining profits, it is expected that value will outperform growth and consumption will outperform manufacturing; BOC Securities Said that, combined with the full pricing of the valuation squeeze and profit reduction in the first half of the year, the growth has returned to the starting line and is ready to go.

Ten brokers: A shares are not pessimistic in the second half of the year

In general, the Institute of Brokerage Firms is generally not pessimistic regarding the A-share market in the second half of the year, but has different views on the specific time to go long.

CICC believes that the current valuation of A shares is at a low level in the historical range and has a mid-line value. In the second half of the year, the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges, and the upside needs more positive catalyst support. Investors are advised to seek “stable” first, and then wait for an opportunity to “advance”.

CITIC Construction Investment Securities said that following the short-term A-share market rebounded in the “golden pit”, it still faces a series of fundamental challenges. Investors need to be patient and wait for bargaining. The quarter is expected to go up once more and the growth style will lead.

The research of Huatai Securities believes that the general trend of A-shares in the second half of the year is not pessimistic, and the internal stagnation and external inflation environment is the macro-combination with the greatest pressure on manufacturing countries, and the risk premium top constructed by it has already appeared at the end of April.

“Looking at the end of the year, A-shares are expected to usher in a three-stage rise and rise. The first stage (from May to the mid-term report season) will bounce back to the pre-epidemic shock level in Shanghai, and the second stage (the mid-term report season to October) will see a turning point in performance. Appeared, entered the reversal market, and released the market elasticity in the third stage (following October).” Huatai Securities said.

Guotai Junan pointed out that economic expectations have been revised upwards, and the Shanghai Composite Index has moved up the operating range, and a callback is a good opportunity to increase positions.

“The policy of stabilizing growth continued to increase and the negative impact of the epidemic gradually subsided. The most pessimistic moment for fundamental expectations has passed. Looking forward to the second half of the year, investors’ expectations for the economy have improved significantly, risk assessments have declined, and risk appetite has rebounded at the bottom. We revised the Shanghai Composite Index upward. An operating range.” Guotai Junan’s strategy research team said.

Everbright Securities said that the uncertainty of earnings and the downward revision of expectations will still be obstacles that the market needs to overcome, and the inflection point may be in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, the market may remain volatile as a whole, and there are periodic downside risks. If the economy improves, the inflection point of the market is expected to appear at the turn of the third and fourth quarters, and the market index may have a better performance in the fourth quarter. However, the previous market lows have provided a relatively sufficient margin of safety.

Bank of China Securities believes that for the second half of 2022, the U-shaped bottom interpretation of the A-share market, and the reversal upward is the benchmark situation for discussion. After the U-shaped bottoming expectation of restocking profit is established, there is a high probability that the market as a whole will not have the risk of killing performance. Under this judgment, investors choose the mid-cycle boom, and the direction of short-cycle recovery will become the key to investment success in the second half of the year.

Ping An Securities pointed out that the overall environment of the A-share market in the second half of the year is expected to improve marginally. Among them, the improvement of the domestic epidemic and the implementation of policies are expected to bring regarding a recovery in fundamentals, the overall liquidity is relatively abundant, and the growth industry is expected to continue the high boom; overseas interest rate hikes In the stage of shrinking the balance sheet, the expectation of liquidity convergence will gradually become clear, and the impact on the domestic market will gradually weaken. However, the market is still facing uncertainties in global geopolitics and energy and food supply. In the medium term, it is necessary to closely track changes in domestic and foreign inflation.

Guohai Securities said that although the divergence of currency liquidity between China and the United States will continue, that is, “external tightening and internal loosening”, the trend of the economy is crucial, and the Chinese economy will stabilize in the second half of the year. In the process of abundant currency liquidity, A The stock may interpret the performance of the US stock market in 2011-2012, that is, the European debt crisis broke out of the “golden pit”, this time the A-share market is the impact of the “new crown epidemic and the Ukraine crisis”, the adjustment of the valuation has been relatively sufficient, and the follow-up economic Stabilization, ample domestic liquidity and positive policies, valuations will be repaired, and the market will usher in good investment opportunities.

Kaiyuan Securities expects that the second half of this year will neither resemble the smooth reversal following the epidemic in 2020, nor will it resemble the continuous bear market in 2018. Looking forward to the future, it is expected to “survive in desperation and forge ahead”. There is still hope for the reversal of A-shares. The first condition is that “M1 stabilizes and rebounds + industrial electricity consumption recovers + PPI’s two-year compound growth rate turns around and falls”, and the second condition is that the systemic risk of real estate is lifted.

Dongguan Securities has a generally positive view on the market in the second half of 2022. It believes that following the policy bottom is gradually consolidated, it is expected to gradually get out of the “market bottom”, usher in the opportunity to stabilize and rebound in stages, and repair the weak pattern in the first half of the year. The half-year market recovery and rebound is worth looking forward to.

Dongguan Securities pointed out that the adjustment of the market in the first half of the year was caused by the impact of internal and external factors, and it also digested the valuation pressure that the market continued to rise before. With the gradual accumulation of market correction and time, the downward pressure has also weakened, especially the digestion of negative factors. It is relatively sufficient. Although there are still external pressures such as interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a decline in the growth rate of performance in the second quarter, policies have accelerated to stabilize growth and the economy has recovered, and the high-quality development of the capital market has continued to advance.

Value or growth still inconclusive

Whether value or growth strategy is dominant in the second half of the year, the choice of investment style has not gained a one-sided tendency in institutional research.

CICC pointed out that although the growth style has made many corrections since the beginning of the year, the valuation has declined, and the value style has relatively outperformed, but the current style interpretation may be affected by global factors and has global characteristics, and the opportunity for the market style to switch to growth needs attention. Progress in overseas inflation and steady growth in China.

CICC believes that, in combination with factors such as policies, the epidemic, and valuation, the following themes can be paid attention to in stages, including stable growth, high prosperity, supply-constrained portfolios, marginal mitigation groups for the epidemic, low-valued high-dividend portfolios, and deep-declining high-quality growth portfolios. .

CITIC Construction Investment Securities stated that the industry can focus on the military industry, photovoltaics, new energy vehicle industry chain, automobile, food and beverage, coal, securities companies, etc.; the theme focuses on the digital economy, state-owned enterprise reform, etc., and the medium-term index strategically focuses on the science and technology innovation board.

The allocation angle given by Huatai Securities is to grasp the major marginal changes following Q2 and the degree of existing logical transactions, the pressure on the US bond discount rate has peaked, the profit distribution pressure on the industry chain has peaked, the current industry cycle, inflation structure, and real estate loose stock prices The level of implied expectations is not high, so midstream manufacturing is the first choice, and essential consumption is the second best. In the subdivided varieties, combined with the bottom-up logic, the midstream manufacturing considers machinery, electronics, automobiles, electrical new, and military industries.

Guotai Junan said that with the confirmation of the bottom of the economy and the market, and the implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth, investors have shifted from panic and hedging to moderately accepting risks, and their investment style has shifted from only emphasizing certainty of performance in cash-like assets to high-profit growth sectors with improved demand margins. Benefiting from policy support and the demand recovery brought regarding by the incremental economy, growth companies with greater flexibility will pull back and choose to grow. The industry allocation is to focus on the high profit growth and the reversal of the consumption dilemma, and pay attention to the allocation value of Hong Kong stock technology leaders.

Ping An Securities believes that in the market environment in 2022, there will be new inflationary pressures externally, and short-term epidemic shocks will occur internally, and policies will stimulate moderate and stable growth and adjust the structure. The selection of the market in this round is more similar to that in 2020, and growth is still an important allocation direction for the market in the second half of the year.

Everbright Securities predicts that in the second half of the year, in the context of declining earnings, it is expected that value will outperform growth and consumption will outperform manufacturing. It is expected that consumption and steady growth will have outstanding performance in the second half of the year. At the same time, the high dividend strategy is also worthy of attention.

Everbright Securities believes that there are three main subdivisions of consumption in the second half of the year worthy of attention. One is the high certainty of the economy and the liquor and medicine in the fund’s bottom position; the second is automobiles and home appliances that benefit from the consumption promotion policy; Services, commerce and retail.

Bank of China Securities said that the high economic growth of midstream manufacturing agglomeration is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the second half of the year. Combined with the full pricing of the valuation squeeze and earnings downgrade in the first half of the year, growth has returned to the starting line and is poised to take off.