October 15, 2022

(Original title: Lithium iron phosphate battery loading doubled year-on-year! The leading third quarterly report has increased by 6 times, benefiting from stock sorting)

Financial Associated Press, October 15th (Editor Rising Sun)The latest data released by the China Automobile Association recently showed that in September, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country was 31.6GWh.A year-on-year increase of 101.6%, an increase of 14% month-on-month. Among them, the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 20.4GWh,Accounted for 64.5% of the total installed vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 113.8%an increase of 18.5% month-on-month.

At present, the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate has exceeded that of ternary materials, and the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate is relatively fast. Analysts say this is mainly due to “The cost and safety advantages of lithium iron phosphate are relatively obvious, the development of incremental markets such as energy storage boosts the demand for lithium iron phosphate, and the supply chain of lithium iron phosphate is more stable”。

At the same time, Defang Nano, the leader of lithium iron phosphate with a total market value of nearly 50 billion yuan, announced on Tuesday evening that it expects a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan to 1.85 billion yuan in the first three quarters.Year-on-year increase of 616.86%—657.83%。

From the price trend, the price of lithium iron phosphate this week was 162,500 yuan / ton, which was unchanged from the previous month. On the whole, as the price of lithium carbonate fell marginally, the price of lithium iron phosphate also adjusted. Liu Jing of Huajin Securities stated in a research report on June 20 that due to the high price of lithium carbonate raw materials in 2022,Lithium iron phosphate prices are expected to be higher2023-2024, with the release of large-scale production capacity in the lithium iron phosphate industry and the weakening of raw material prices,It is predicted that the price of lithium iron phosphate will gradually decline。

Liu Jing said in the research report that with technological breakthroughs, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been significantly improved, and the gap with ternary batteries has narrowed.In addition to its advantages of low cost and high safety, lithium iron phosphate batteries will counterattack ternary batteries in 2021. The annual output will increase by 185% year-on-year, which is much higher than the growth rate of ternary positive electrodes. Liu Jing expectsIn 2025, the global demand for lithium iron phosphate will be 2.65 million tons, and the annual compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be 56.7%。

From the perspective of the supply side, Qiu Shiliang and others of Zheshang Securities estimated in the research report on August 7,In 2025, the domestic production capacity of lithium iron phosphate will be 5.75 million tons, and the new capacity will be 1.54 million tons, the updated and upgraded production capacity reached 530,000 tons. According to the production line investment of 180 million yuan / 10,000 tons,In 2025, the investment in the domestic lithium iron phosphate production line will reach 37.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%。

In terms of lithium iron phosphate production capacity pattern,The top five companies in 2022 are Hunan Yuneng, Defang Nano, Changzhou Liyuan, Jiangxi Shenghua (Fulin Precision acquired Hunan Shenghua in 2016), Hubei Wanrunthe total production capacity is 510,000 tons, and the CR5 is 59%. Among them, Hunan Yuneng has a production capacity of 190,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, ranking first in the industry.German nanometer production capacity of 155,000 tons ranks second in the industry。

In addition, Yuan Jiancong of CITIC Securities stated in a research report on May 24 that in recent years, new players in chemical companies such as phosphorus chemical industry and titanium dioxide have entered the lithium iron phosphate industry and carried out multi-faceted layouts. Representative companies of new faces in the lithium iron phosphate market include,China Nuclear Titanium Dioxide, Lomon Billions, Chuanheng Co., Ltd., Chuanjinnuo, Wanhua Chemical, Yuntianhua, etc.。

Hong Yi of Dongxing Securities stated in a research report on August 27 that leading manufacturers have strong advantages in the presence of customers and supply chains in the industry, and it will take time for latecomers to catch up. It is expected that by the end of 2023 or early 2024 , 9 companies including Hunan Yuneng, Rongtong Hi-Tech, Defang Nano, Longpan Technology, Fulin Precision Hubei Wanrun, etc.Nominal production capacity will reach 2.37 million tonsthen,Hunan Yuneng, which ranks among the top listed companies (in the process of listing, has passed the meeting in June 2022), Defang Nano, and Longpan Technology are expected to benefit from this round of capacity expansion。

However, it is worth noting that according to the incomplete statistics of Gaogong Lithium, the domestic lithium iron phosphate planned projects in 2021 will exceed 3 million tons, and the total planned production capacity will exceed 9.72 million tons in the first half of this year, far exceeding the global total in 2025. The forecast of power battery shipments is 1.55TWh.

Wang Juan, an analyst in the lithium iron phosphate industry of Longzhong Information, told the Financial Associated Press: “At present, the lithium iron phosphates of various companies are hurrying to seize the market, but due to various reasons, the construction progress of most of the devices has been delayed. At present, there will be no overcapacity situation in the short term, but with the continuous release of new production capacity,It is expected that following the next two years, lithium iron phosphate may face a situation of overcapacity。”