June 6, 2023

The already rather curious American presidential election campaign has been enriched by a historical fact: For the first time ever, a former vice president will run once morest his former boss. This has been clear since Monday evening, when it was announced that Mike Pence, long Donald Trump’s loyal man in the background, had submitted the necessary documents for a candidacy to the Federal Electoral Commission.

This step is not a surprise – it had long been expected that Pence would throw his hat in the ring. Does he have a chance in the Trump-dominated Republican field? Can he even prevail once morest the former incumbent? Hardly likely.

DeSantis remains Trump’s main competitor

In the polls, the 64-year-old Pence has always been in the single digits, while Trump usually has approval ratings of over 50 percent. Trump’s main competitor is and remains Florida’s governor Ron DeSantis, but he too is currently well behind the controversial ex-president. Now that Mike Pence has entered the race, there is a growing likelihood that it will remain so. In order to get a candidate other than Trump across the finish line, it would take a strong opponent who would unite the entire opposition to Trump. Currently, the field of applicants is actually becoming more and more fragmented. Especially since the applications of the former governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, and the governor of North Dakota, Doug Burgum, are also expected this week. The candidate list would then grow to ten.

One might object that numerous primaries developed their own dynamics as soon as the votes were cast in the first states, see Trump’s surprise success in 2016. That’s true, but there is still an extremely weighty argument once morest Pence: Despite his soft tones and at best cautious criticism on the polarizer Trump, he is almost hated by his supporters. Since refusing to support Trump’s attempts to overturn Joe Biden’s legitimate election victory in January 2021, he has been viewed as a traitor in the Trump camp. A broad migration of Republican voters from Trump to Pence is therefore almost impossible.

So the sobering realization remains: Despite his classic conservative positions, which he – unlike Trump – he represents out of conviction, not out of calculation, Mike Pence’s star will probably burn up once more quickly. In these times, the “Grand Old Party” is hardly regarding attitude. It’s all regarding Donald Trump.