September 2023

2023-09-05 01:38:41

The president of Russia made a series of demands and hopes that they are met and thus resume the plan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared on Monday that the deal allowing Ukraine to safely export grain across the Black Sea amid the war will not be reinstated until the West meets Moscow’s demands on its own agricultural exports.

Ukraine and its Western allies have dismissed the Kremlin’s demands as a ploy to further their own interests.

Still, Putin’s remarks have dashed hopes that his talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might revive a deal seen as vital to global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

Russia refused to extend the agreement in July, arguing that a side deal that promised to remove obstacles to Russian food and fertilizer exports had not been fulfilled.

It said restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered trade in its agricultural products, even though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year.

Putin reiterated those grievances on Monday, though he also told reporters that if those commitments were met, Russia might return to the deal “in a matter of days.”

Erdogan also expressed his hope that a breakthrough would happen soon. He said that Turkey and the UN – which acted as mediators in the original agreement – have drawn up a new package of proposals to unblock the issue.

“We believe that we will reach a solution that meets expectations in a short time,” Erdogan said at a press conference held with Putin in the Russian city of Sochi.

There is a lot at stake in the negotiation. Ukraine and Russia are important suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other products for some developing countries.

Data from the Istanbul Joint Coordination Center, which organized the shipments under the agreement, shows that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing countries, with China being the main destination.

Grain prices spiked following Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement, but then fell back, indicating that there are no major shortages in the market at the moment.

However, failure to revive the deal will have “drastic repercussions” in countries like Somalia and Egypt, which are heavily dependent on grain from the Black Sea, according to Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at London’s Chatham House think tank.

Putin is seeking some relief from sanctions and at the same time is engaged in a “war of narratives,” Dalay said, because the Russian leader “does not want to appear the bad guy in the eyes of the global south as a result of this food insecurity.”

Ukraine and its allies have often pointed out that Russia’s move embarrassed many developing nations receiving the grain.

Perhaps in order to deal with that charge, Putin said on Monday that Russia was regarding to finalize a deal to provide free grain to six African countries.

Last month, he promised shipments to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and the Central African Republic.

The Russian leader added that his country will send 1 million tons of cheap grain to Turkey for processing and delivery to poor countries.

In addition to withdrawing from the grain deal, Russia has repeatedly attacked the Odessa region, where Ukraine’s main Black Sea port is located.

Hours before the Sochi meeting, Kremlin forces launched a barrage on the area, the second in two days.

The Ukrainian air force said it had intercepted 23 of the 32 drones targeting the Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions. He did not specify the damage caused by those who did make it through.

Russia may hope to use its power over Ukrainian exports across the Black Sea as a bargaining chip to reduce Western economic sanctions.

Some companies have been reluctant to do business with Russia because of those sanctions, despite assurances from Western allies that food and fertilizer are exempt.

Turkey has not joined Western sanctions once morest Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, and has become one of its main trading partners and a logistics center for Russian foreign trade.

At the same time, NATO member Turkey has supported Ukraine, sending weapons, meeting with Zelenskyy and backing kyiv’s bid to join the Western alliance.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged Moscow to return to the deal on Monday, saying there were “no legal or political reasons for Russia to withdraw from the deal.”

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