November 28, 2023

2023-11-28 07:30:03

The 8th annual Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change highlights increasing risks from extreme heat. By 2050, the world might see a sharp increase in heat-related deaths.

Summer 2023 is the hottest summer globally in at least 100,000 years, the Copernicus ECMWF climate change service recently announced. If the year 2023 has not finished breaking all its records, in 2022, the population was exposed on average to 86 days of high temperatures dangerous to health, according to the 8th Annual Lancet Countdown Report on the health impacts of climate change. 60% of them were twice as likely to occur because of climate change.

This annual report led by University College London brought together 114 experts from 52 research institutions and UN agencies from around the world. While COP28, which is being held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, will devote a day to the links between climate and health, “ all hope is not lost says Dr Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown at University College London. “ If climate negotiations lead to a fair and rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, accelerate mitigation and support health adaptation efforts, the ambition of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5° It remains achievable, as does a healthy and prosperous future. », she analyzes.

Dying from heat is no longer exceptional

Elderly people are increasingly dying from heat. The number of deaths linked to high temperatures observed among those over 65 has in fact increased by 85% between 2013 and 2022, compared to the period 1991-2000. In the absence of climate change and only taking into account demographic change, the increase would have been only 38%, shares the Lancet Countdown.

Heat-related mortality is expected to increase. By 2050, the world might experience a 370% increase in these deaths in the event of global warming limited to 2°C. By the end of the century, the increase would even reach 683%. If men and women are counting on the protection of their health systems to protect them from the effects of climate change, they might nevertheless be disappointed. Indeed, the current warming of 1.14°C compared to the pre-industrial era is already putting a strain on certain health systems. “ 27% (141/525) of cities surveyed are concerned regarding health systems which are overwhelmed by the consequences of climate change », notes the report.

Heat also endangers the economic system. “ Exposure to heat also caused the loss of 490 billion potential working hours globally in 2022 », Calculate the authors. The increase reaches almost 42% compared to the last decade of the 1900s.

Heat-related mortality will increase further

If temperature rises reach 2°C by the end of the century, heat-related deaths are expected to increase by 370% by 2050. “Exposure to heat is expected to increase the number of potential working hours lost by 50% globally,” adds the report.

The rise in temperature will also be accompanied by increased food and water insecurity, as well as an acceleration in the spread of deadly infectious diseases, such as diarrheal diseases or dengue fever. At the same time, the increase in extreme weather events will ultimately amplify the risks. “ We must focus on primary prevention and address the root causes of climate change, rapidly accelerating mitigation across all sectors to ensure that the scale of health hazards does not exceed adaptive capacity health systems », warns Stella Hartinger, director of the regional center Lancet Countdown for Latin America.

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