It’s official. Hassan Nasrallah has been killed by an Israeli strike targeting Hezbollah’s headquarters in Dahieh, a southern suburb of Beirut. This significant event is poised to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. In the aftermath of his death, speculation about his successor, Iran’s reaction, and the broader consequences for Hezbollah and its allies are gaining traction.
Announced first by the Israeli army and subsequently confirmed by Hezbollah on September 28, the death of Hassan Nasrallah represents a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict in the region. Following the news, Hezbollah issued a stern warning, declaring its intent to continue fighting against Israel “in support of Gaza and Palestine, and for the defense of Lebanon and its people.” However, questions arise concerning Hezbollah’s capability to retaliate effectively.
Hezbollah has reportedly suffered considerable losses in recent Israeli attacks, including the deaths of numerous senior officials, leaving the organization tragically weakened. Despite having an arsenal of approximately 150,000 rockets and missiles, with about 1,000 classified as ballistic missiles capable of penetrating deep into Israeli territory, the effectiveness of this military strength is in doubt. Reports indicate that a significant portion of Hezbollah’s arsenal has been targeted and destroyed by Israeli strikes, leading to critical disruptions in their operational capacities.
Karim Yahiaoui, a special correspondent for France 24 in Beirut, noted, “Even if there remains a strike and fire capacity on the Hezbollah side, for the moment, it has proven relatively ineffective in achieving Israeli military objectives.” The recent operational setbacks have led analysts to question Hezbollah’s ability to launch organized and impactful retaliation against Israeli interests.
If revenge is deemed “essential” for Hezbollah, it will be “difficult to implement,” given the organization’s fraught organizational structure due to intensified Israeli strikes. “The capacity of Hezbollah in its organization and in its capacity to fire in an organized manner towards Israel is undoubtedly largely called into question,” Yahiaoui elaborated.
Israeli operations have further disrupted Hezbollah’s communication frameworks, which ultimately culminated in the death of Nasrallah during a crucial meeting with other high-ranking officials. This level of infiltration by Israeli intelligence signals remarkable precision and raises concerns about Hezbollah’s internal security and organizational integrity, leading to a pervasive paranoia among its ranks.
Hachem Safieddine: The Likely Successor
As the dust settles on the sudden leadership vacuum, a name is circulating as a potential successor to Hassan Nasrallah: Hachem Safieddine. As the head of Hezbollah’s executive council, Safieddine has previously survived several attempts to weaken the organization through Israeli military actions. He is reportedly a cousin of Nasrallah and bears a physical resemblance to the late leader, which may facilitate a smoother transition should he be appointed as the new head.
Safieddine carries significant influence within Hezbollah, managing vital aspects of its political and military operations. Designated as a terrorist by the U.S. State Department in 2017, he remains aligned with the group’s militant position and has historically adhered closely to the Palestinian cause, vowing to make Israel “weep and lament” in the wake of the deaths of Hezbollah commanders.
His shared ideological vision with Nasrallah, honed during their formative years in Qom, Iran, could help maintain Hezbollah’s trajectory and its ongoing alliance with Iran and other regional allies.
The Iranian Response
The death of Hassan Nasrallah is significant not only for Hezbollah but also for Iran, which played a pivotal role in establishing the militant group in 1982. In response to the event, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has urged Muslims to support Hezbollah and its battle against “the evil regime of Israel.”
Iran’s future actions in the wake of Nasrallah’s death remain uncertain, given that the country has maintained a relatively low profile in recent days amid escalating regional tensions. However, the loss of a key figure like Nasrallah may shift the dynamics within the so-called “axis of resistance,” reshaping Iran’s approach to its military and diplomatic endeavors in the region.
Senior reporter Amar Al Hameedawi opines that Nasrallah’s assassination might lead to a decline in the effectiveness of this axis, as Iranian alliances with Syria, various pro-Iranian militias, and others come under scrutiny. Nevertheless, the commitment of Iran to its allies and the broader Shiite cause is unlikely to waver significantly in the immediate aftermath.
Potential Implications for Lebanon
Experts view Nasrallah’s elimination as an unprecedented blow to Shiite extremists but not necessarily a transformative event for neighboring Arab states, who have generally held little respect for Hezbollah. Ofer Bronchtein, president of the International Forum for Peace, posited that Nasrallah’s removal could provide an opportunity for the Lebanese population to reclaim their sovereignty and inadvertently encourage a sense of liberation from Hezbollah’s firm grasp over the Lebanese government and military.
“The Lebanese must sense a liberation movement somewhere,” Bronchtein suggested, urging the public to regain control of their destiny and aspire towards a singular Lebanese military force—not one fragmented by factionalism. He points out that with perceived threats from Israel significantly lower than those posed by the ongoing Palestinian issues, Lebanese perspectives on foreign interventions may also begin to shift.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has articulated that “Israel’s war is not against the Lebanese people.” He acknowledged Nasrallah’s significant role in instigating violence against Israeli citizens, remarking on the need for a change in sentiment within Lebanon. With continued Israeli airstrikes aimed at Hezbollah positions, the region remains in a state of tension.
Second participation in UFC Paris and second victory by KO for Morgan Charrière. In the -66 kg category, “The Last Pirate” extinguished Gabriel Miranda this Saturday in front of a hot Bercy audience.
Just after the first KO of the evening by Farès Ziam, Morgan Charrière continued to delight the French public by also winning by KO, against Gabriel Miranda. This Saturday, in front of a crazy crowd, already standing and noisy for his entrance, “The Last Pirate” extinguished the Brazilian at the start of the second round. A single blow was enough: in a stricking phase, Miranda turned her back on him – a fatal error – and the Frenchman took the opportunity to send a huge left hook which hit the mark.
On paper, Morgan Charrière was the biggest favorite of all the French fighters on the main card, facing the Brazilian who is not unknown to the French public. He was in fact Benoît Saint Denis’s opponent in 2022 for UFC Paris, when the “God of War” had forever become the first Frenchman to fight (and win) on his soil for the American organization for a victory by TKO in the second round.
Two victories in two fights at UFC Paris
This success allows the Frenchman to find his way back to victory. He was left with a split decision defeat in a big war against Chepe Mariscal in April in Las Vegas. And he is still undefeated at UFC Paris, after his victory in the last edition against Manolo Zecchini, also thanks to a thunderous knockout.
Something to enjoy with the public. “It was a complicated fight to take, with a short training camp, only two weeks, there was no real gameplan, I just came in the cage to beat him up,” said the Frenchman after the fight, before asking the wild spectators to sing a Marseillaise.
LThe Tsuchinshan-ATLAS comet will pass closest to the Sun this weekend, marking a journey that began millions of years ago and promising a spectacular sight for Earth observers in October, provided it survives.
This small body of rock and ice was discovered in January 2023 by China’s Purple Mountain Observatory (Tsuchinshan), contributing to the first part of its name. The second part comes from the confirmation of its existence by a telescope from the South African ATLAS program.
REUTERS
Since its discovery, astronomers, who prefer more precise nomenclature, refer to it as C/2023 A3 as it continues its journey toward the Sun. The analysis of its trajectory is too brief, with “barely one year of hindsight,” to accurately determine the path it has traveled so far, explains Lucie Maquet, an astronomer at the Institute of Celestial Mechanics and Ephemeris Calculation (IMCCE) at the Paris-PSL Observatory.
The comet follows an “open orbit,” with models suggesting it may have originated up to 400,000 times the Earth-Sun distance before reaching our vicinity.
AFP
This comet has been on a journey spanning millions of years, likely formed in the Oort cloud—a hypothetical and vast collection of small celestial bodies at the edge of the solar system. Until now, viewing it with the naked eye was possible only from the Southern Hemisphere.
Soon Visible in the Northern Hemisphere
In the Northern Hemisphere, it will be visible starting October 13, when it will be closest to Earth at a distance of 71 million kilometers. If the weather permits, “it will be easily visible” each evening when looking “in the direction of the setting sun,” according to Ms. Maquet.
This is contingent on the comet surviving its close encounter with the Sun. As comets approach the Sun, the ice within their core sublimates, releasing a long tail of dust that reflects sunlight.
This characteristic tail, known as the coma, indicates that the object is undergoing “degassing.” The concern is whether this degassing will be excessive, risking the disintegration of the comet.
An unfortunate outcome “is always a possibility,” warns the astronomer, because the combination of ice and rocks “may not withstand the Sun’s gravitational forces.” The good news is that C/2023 A3 appears to have a very large core, increasing the likelihood of its survival during this passage.
Where Will It Go Next?
As for its future trajectory, that remains uncertain. Its solar journey will result in changes to its orbit, influenced by the gravity of stars it encounters and the mass loss experienced from its proximity to the Sun.
The models used suggest—though without certainty—that it may be “ejected from the solar system, lost among the stars,” according to the September IMCCE bulletin.
Ultimately, everything will depend on the encounters C/2023 A3 experiences during its journey through the Oort cloud, potentially thousands of years in the future. The astronomer notes that it could simply “pass close enough to another body in that region to be redirected back for another trip through the solar system.”
Lhe Tsuchinshan-ATLAS comet passes closest to the Sun this weekend, on a journey that began millions of years ago, which promises a remarkable spectacle for Earthlings in October if it survives.
The small body of rock and ice was detected in January 2023 by China’s Purple Mountain Observatory (Tsuchinshan), giving it the first half of its name. He owes the second to the confirmation of his existence by a telescope from the South African ATLAS program.
REUTERS
Since then, for astronomers, who prefer more rigorous nomenclatures, C/2023 A3 continues its journey towards the Sun. The study of its course is too short, with “barely one year of hindsight,” to know precisely the path it has followed until now, explains Lucie Maquet, astronomer at the Institute of Celestial Mechanics and of Ephemeris Calculation (IMCCE), located within the Paris-PSL Observatory.
It follows an orbit “which is not closed,” with models suggesting that it could have been up to 400,000 times the Earth-Sun distance before reaching us.
AFP
A journey counting in millions of years for this comet, which probably saw the light of day in the Oort cloud, a hypothetical and gigantic assembly of tiny planets and celestial bodies at the edge of the solar system. Until now, you had to be in the Southern Hemisphere to hope to see it with the naked eye.
Soon Visible in the Northern Hemisphere
In the Northern Hemisphere, it will be visible from October 13, when it will be closest to Earth at 71 million kilometers away. If the weather is suitable, it will be “obvious” every evening when looking “in the direction of the setting sun,” according to Ms. Maquet.
However, this visibility is contingent upon the comet surviving its passage near the Sun. When comets approach our star, the ice contained in their core sublimates and releases a long trail of dust that reflects solar light.
This characteristic hair, known as the coma, indicates that the comet is “degassing.” The question remains as to whether this degassing will not be too excessive, risking the disintegration of this unwary visitor.
A catastrophe is “always possible,” according to the astronomer, because the assembly of ice and stones “may very well not resist the force of gravity of the Sun.” The good news is that C/2023 A3 appears to have a very massive core, suggesting “there is a good chance that it will survive” its passage.
Where Will It Go Next?
As for its future course, it is unpredictable. Its solar odyssey will not be without consequences on its orbit, disrupted by the gravity of the celestial bodies it encounters and the weight loss incurred from the Sun.
The models predict, though without commitment, that it could be “ejected from the solar system, getting lost between the stars,” according to the September IMCCE bulletin.
Everything will ultimately depend on the encounters that C/2023 A3 will make during its journey through the Oort cloud, a few thousand years from now. It would take just one “deflecting” celestial body to steer it back into the solar system for another trip.
What to Expect When Viewing the Comet
For those eager to catch a glimpse of the comet when it becomes visible in the Northern Hemisphere, here are some practical tips:
- Timing: Plan your viewing for evenings around October 13 when visibility is optimal.
- Location: Find a dark area away from city lights to enhance visibility.
- Equipment: Binoculars or a telescope can provide a better view, but the comet may also be visible to the naked eye.
- Weather: Check local weather conditions to ensure clear skies.
Creating a Viewing Party
Why not gather friends and family for a celestial viewing party? Here are a few ideas to make it special:
- Snacks: Prepare space-themed snacks and beverages.
- Astrophysics Talk: Dive into discussions about comets, asteroids, and space exploration.
- Photography: Equip yourself with cameras to capture those precious moments.
Fascinating Facts About Comets
- Age: Comets are among the oldest celestial bodies in the solar system.
- Made of Ice and Rock: They are primarily composed of ice, dust, and rocky materials.
- Oort Cloud: The Oort cloud is a distant sphere of icy bodies surrounding our solar system.
- Short vs. Long Period: Short-period comets orbit within the inner solar system, while long-period comets, like C/2023 A3, originate from the Oort cloud.
Comets and Their Influence on Earth
Throughout history, comets have influenced human civilization. Often seen as omens or carriers of significant change, their appearance has inspired myths and speculation. Understanding comets like C/2023 A3 can not only enhance our appreciation of the cosmos but also promote scientific inquiry into our solar system’s origins and workings.
It was he who opened the ball on the main card of UFC Paris 3, Saturday evening, at the Accor Arena in Bercy. Farès Ziam (27 years old, 1.83 m, 70 kg, 16-4) faced a former victim of Benoît Saint Denis, headliner of the event: the American Matt Frevola. Creative, varying the strike zones and levels, Ziam stifled the American, totally overwhelmed, and placed a knockout. stratospheric on a knee strike in the 3rd round. Frevola remained on the ground for very long minutes before finally getting up.
A big victory for Ziam which will have left its mark and perfectly launched the evening of the main card.