2025 College Football Playoff Predictions: Anticipating the No. 1 Ranking in the First Rankings Release

The Athletic has live coverage of the first release of the 2025 College Football Playoff rankings.

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season will be revealed at 8 p.m. Tuesday, and I’ll be using my projections model to predict how the selection committee will rank the teams each week.

I’ve spent hours studying the relevant metrics to predict the rankings and have found a formula that works pretty well. In fact, last year, my final projected College Football Playoff bracket was not only perfect at getting all 12 teams correct, but also the exact seeds for each team.

No formula is perfect, of course. These are humans making selections, and there has been talk of strength of schedule mattering more this year. But as it stands right now, I feel pretty confident these rankings will do a pretty good job of predicting how the committee will think:

Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 10

Rank	Team	Record	SOR	SOS
1		8-0	6	64
2		9-0	3	45
3		8-0	1	14
4		7-1	4	7
5		7-1	5	9
6		8-1	2	19
7		7-1	21	72
8		8-0	7	57
9		8-1	11	49
10		6-2	16	16
11		7-2	13	23
12		7-1	9	53
13		8-1	12	70
14		7-2	10	8
15		8-1	8	74
16		7-2	14	17
17		7-2	18	58
18		6-2	17	18
19		6-2	20	31
20		6-2	23	30
21		7-2	15	36
22		6-2	22	42
23		6-2	30	67
24		6-3	32	13
25		7-2	19	54

Next five: Memphis, North Texas, James Madison, Pittsburgh, South Florida

Strength of record (SOR) and strength of schedule (SOS) rankings are based on The Athletic’s model

Biggest question: How will strength of schedule be factored in?

Last year, the drama surrounding the final playoff rankings was SMU (11-2) getting the final at-large bid over Alabama (9-3) after losing an extra game in the ACC championship against Clemson. SMU ultimately traveled to Penn State in the first round, where it lost 38-10 to the Nittany Lions.

For years, the Power 5 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) dominated college football, but with conference realignment obliterating the Pac-12, it’s now a Power 4 that feels more like a Power 2 with the Big Ten and SEC calling the shots.

Personally, I think the strength of schedule discussion is a little overblown. A lot of metrics that you’ll hear about — including strength of record — do a good job factoring in the quality of opponents that every team plays. According to my strength of record numbers, four of the top five teams are from the SEC. Two teams from the Big Ten fill out of the other spots in the top six.

Where things get tricky is when we start talking about raw wins and losses or beating teams with a winning record. In other words, an 8-4 team from the MAC should not be seen as the same as an 8-4 team from the SEC. That’s not how we should be choosing teams when there are plenty of better ways to measure team quality or resume.

At the end of the day, the committee has done a pretty good job of ranking teams during the CFP era with few true controversies in the final selections. Because SMU was ranked ahead of Alabama before the ACC title game game last year, I think it’s fair that it didn’t get punished while Alabama was at home not playing an extra game. Was Alabama the better team? Most likely. More deserving? Well, the committee didn’t think so.

Will it continue to operate that way? Or will the power continue to swing toward the Big Ten and SEC? My projected Top 25 has three ACC teams in the initial top 15 and two Big 12 teams in the top 10, which gives both conferences a legit shot at two at-large bids. We will start finding out Tuesday night whether the committee thinks so too.

With the expanded field, there will always be arguments over the final at-large bid, considering how close those teams’ resumes often are. And in last year’s case, the two were very similar and the committee went with the regular season having meaning rather than just picking the “best” team.

If the committee is using more metrics that attempt to adjust for schedule and give context to a team’s record, I’m not going to argue with that. As for what I think the committee will do, I believe it will side with the teams with the better schedules because that aligns with the Power 2 conferences. Will the changes be drastic? No. But if two teams are similar in resume, my guess is that they will spurn the ACC/Big 12 and side with the Big Ten/SEC.

What the 12-team bracket would look like

The bracket below is based on the projected selection committee rankings for Nov. 4. Find my projections for the final bracket here.

How might Georgia’s remaining SEC schedule (including the championship game) impact their ranking compared too a team with a less challenging conference slate?

The Contenders for the Top Spot

The first College Football Playoff rankings release is always a pivotal moment, setting the stage for the final stretch of the season.Predicting the No. 1 team this early is a challenge, but analyzing team performance, strength of schedule, and key matchups provides valuable insight. Hear’s a breakdown of the leading contenders as of November 4th,2025,and their chances of claiming that coveted top seed.

Georgia Bulldogs: The Reigning Powerhouse

Georgia remains a dominant force in college football. Their consistent performance, strong defense, and efficient offense make them a perennial playoff threat.

* Record: 9-0 (as of Nov 4, 2025)

* Key wins: vs. Alabama (road), vs. Tennessee

* Remaining Schedule: Florida, georgia Tech, SEC Championship Game (potential rematch with Alabama or Texas)

* Why they could be #1: Dominance in the SEC, proven ability to win close games, and a history of playoff success.Their defense is consistently ranked among the nation’s best, allowing them to control the tempo of games.

* Potential Roadblocks: A slip-up against Florida or Georgia Tech could jeopardize their undefeated record. A tough SEC Championship game opponent will be a meaningful test.

Ohio State Buckeyes: Explosive offense, Championship Aspirations

Ohio State’s offense is arguably the most explosive in the country. Their ability to score quickly and consistently puts immense pressure on opposing defenses.

* Record: 9-0 (as of Nov 4, 2025)

* Key Wins: vs. Notre Dame, vs. Penn State

* Remaining Schedule: Michigan State, Michigan, Big Ten Championship Game

* Why they could be #1: High-powered offense, strong quarterback play, and a favorable path to the Big Ten Championship. They’ve demonstrated the ability to overcome adversity.

* Potential Roadblocks: “The Game” against Michigan is always a challenge. A loss to Michigan State, while unlikely, would substantially damage their playoff hopes.

Michigan Wolverines: Ground Game and Defensive Prowess

michigan continues to build on its recent success,boasting a powerful running game and a stout defense.Their methodical approach to offense and ability to control the clock make them a arduous opponent.

* Record: 9-0 (as of Nov 4, 2025)

* Key Wins: vs. Washington, vs. Iowa

* Remaining Schedule: Maryland, Ohio State, Big Ten Championship Game

* Why they could be #1: Dominant running game, strong defensive line, and a proven coaching staff. Their ability to win in tough environments is a major asset.

* Potential roadblocks: The rivalry game against Ohio State will be a defining moment. Maintaining focus and avoiding complacency in their remaining games is crucial.

florida State Seminoles: ACC Dominance and Playoff Push

Florida state has emerged as a legitimate national championship contender, showcasing a balanced attack and improved defense.

* Record: 9-0 (as of Nov 4, 2025)

* Key Wins: vs. LSU, vs. Clemson

* Remaining Schedule: Miami, Florida, ACC Championship Game

* Why they could be #1: Undefeated record, strong quarterback play, and a favorable conference schedule.They’ve shown the ability to win against quality opponents.

* Potential Roadblocks: The rivalry game against Miami is always highly contested. A potential ACC Championship game against a strong opponent (like Clemson) could be a challenge.

Key Factors Influencing the Rankings

Beyond win-loss records,several factors will heavily influence the College Football Playoff committee’s initial rankings.

Strength of Schedule (SOS)

The committee places significant emphasis on the quality of opponents faced. Teams with tougher schedules generally receive a boost in the rankings,even with a similar record to teams with easier schedules. Analyzing conference standings and non-conference results is crucial. This year, the SEC and Big Ten appear to have the strongest SOS overall.

Head-to-Head Results

Direct matchups between ranked teams carry significant weight. A win over a highly-ranked opponent is a major resume booster.The Georgia