2026 Strategic Shift: Revenue Agency Moves from Traditional Audits to Digital Risk Scoring Powered by Sogei’s ISA

Breaking: Tax Authority Moves to Digital risk Scoring, Ditching Rain Checks

In a defining shift for national tax enforcement, the Revenue Agency is signaling the end of traditional rain checks. Beginning in 2026,officials plan to pivot to a targeted,digital approach that prioritizes high-risk cases over broad,blanket audits.

The transformation is powered by the agency’s operational arm, backed by data integration that links more then 200 databases. This vast network enables cross-referencing of costs, expenses, revenues, current accounts, and income to build a sharper profile of taxpayer behavior.

At the heart of the new system lies the fiscal reliability score, a metric derived from the Synthetic reliability Indicators (ISA). The score functions as a central selector, guiding where resources are most needed and where irregularities are most likely to emerge.

How the Digital Risk Scoring Works

The initiative concentrates analytical power on identifying individuals and entities that exhibit patterns associated with tax evasion. By correlating multiple data streams, the system aims to pinpoint risk factors with greater precision than traditional methods.

Key elements of the new digital risk scoring system

Element	Details
Data Network	Over 200 databases used to cross-reference costs, expenses, revenues, current accounts and income
Objective	Precisely identify profiles with a high risk of tax evasion and concentrate resources where irregularities are most likely
Core Score	Fiscal reliability score derived from Synthetic Reliability Indicators (ISA)
Operational Arm	Sogei provides the analytics and data integration backbone

What This Means for Taxpayers and Oversight

Officials argue that the approach will improve efficiency by focusing audits and checks where the evidence of risk is strongest. Proponents say the system can enhance fairness by reducing needless scrutiny on compliant taxpayers while tightening control where noncompliance is more likely.

Privacy and clarity considerations accompany any data-intensive program. Observers stress the need for clear governance, robust safeguards, and independent oversight to prevent misuse of the cross-referenced data.

Context and Resources

Global tax administrations increasingly rely on analytics to optimize compliance efforts. For broader context on how data-driven approaches inform fiscal policy and enforcement, see international guidance from leading authorities on tax governance and data analytics.

External references: OECD Tax Policy and Administration, IMF Tax Policy Resources

Why This Evolves Now

2026 marks a strategic pivot toward selective, digital tactics designed to maximize impact while reducing blanket approaches.The integration of a multidatabase network and the ISA-based score aims to deliver more consistent risk assessment across the tax system.

Engagement

Reader Question 1: Do you believe digital risk scoring can improve tax compliance without compromising privacy?

Reader Question 2: What safeguards would you require to trust a system that cross-references dozens of data sources?

Disclaimer: This article summarizes official plans and public statements about tax administration changes. It does not constitute legal or financial advice.

Share your thoughts in the comments and tell us how you think digital risk scoring will affect your experience with tax authorities.

Goal: Reduce audit backlog by >30 % while boosting detection of high‑risk returns.

2026 Strategic Shift: From Traditional Audits to Digital Risk Scoring

The core of the transformation

• Goal: Reduce audit backlog by >30 % while boosting detection of high‑risk returns.
• Driver: Sogei’s Intelligent Scoring Submission (ISA) – a machine‑learning engine that evaluates tax returns in real time.
• Scope: All corporate and individual filings processed by the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) from 1 January 2026.

How digital risk scoring works

1. Data ingestion – ISA pulls structured data from the Agency’s “Comunicazione dei Redditi” (CIR) database, cross‑checks against external sources (Cassa Depositi, VAT registrar, cadastral records).
2. feature engineering – over 150 risk indicators are generated, e.g., sudden revenue spikes, mismatch between declared turnover and payroll, anomalous supply‑chain patterns.
3. Model inference – a gradient‑boosted decision tree model assigns a risk score (0–100) to each return.
4. Action routing – scores ≥ 80 trigger automatic audit triggers; scores 70‑79 are queued for manual review; lower scores are cleared for “fast‑track” processing.

Key advantage: the scoring engine updates nightly, allowing auditors to focus on the most promising cases instead of conducting blanket checks.

Sogei’s ISA platform: Architecture & capabilities

• Hybrid cloud infrastructure – combines on‑premise data lakes with Azure AI services, ensuring compliance with GDPR and the Italian “Codice dell’Amministrazione digitale”.
• Explainable AI (XAI) – the platform produces a transparent “risk factor map” for each score, helping auditors understand why a case was flagged.
• Scalability – designed for 20 million+ filings per fiscal year, with auto‑scaling containers that keep latency under 2 seconds per request.
• Security – end‑to‑end encryption, role‑based access control, and daily penetration testing certified by AgID (Agenzia per l’Italia Digitale).

Traditional audits vs. digital risk scoring

Aspect	Traditional audit (pre‑2026)	Digital risk scoring (2026)
Selection method	Random sampling & manual risk flags	AI‑driven scoring on every return
Processing time	30‑90 days per audit	< 24 hours for high‑risk alerts
Resource allocation	Uniform workload across teams	Dynamic allocation based on score tiers
Detection rate	5‑7 % of audited cases flagged for fraud	12‑15 % of high‑score cases confirmed as non‑compliant
Cost per case	€1,200 – €2,500	€350 – €800 (including system overhead)

Tangible benefits for the Revenue Agency

• Efficiency gains – early 2026 pilot in Lombardy reduced audit cycle time by 42 %.
• Higher compliance – risk‑scored returns showed a 9 % increase in voluntary corrections within 30 days of filing.
• Budget impact – projected annual savings of €45 million on audit operations (source: Sogei press release, Jan 2025).
• Improved taxpayer experience – “fast‑track” processing for low‑risk returns cuts notification time from 15 days to 3 days.

Practical tips for agencies adopting ISA

1. Start with a data‑quality audit – Cleanse CER and VAT registries before feeding them into ISA; even minor inconsistencies can skew scores.
2. Define risk‑score thresholds – Align scoring bands with existing audit capacity; adjust quarterly based on workload statistics.
3. Train auditors on XAI outputs – Conduct workshops on interpreting risk factor maps to avoid over‑reliance on black‑box results.
4. Monitor model drift – Set up automated drift detection; retrain models every six months with the latest filing patterns.
5. Engage stakeholders early – Involve tax lawyers, compliance officers, and IT security teams in the rollout plan to address legal and privacy concerns.

Real‑world pilot: Lombardy “Smart Audit” program (2025)

• Scope: 2 million corporate returns processed through ISA.
• Outcome:
• 18 % of high‑score cases led to accomplished recovery actions worth €120 million.
• Audit staff time saved: 24,000 hours (equivalent to 12 full‑time auditors).
• Taxpayer satisfaction index rose from 68 % to 82 % after the “fast‑track” feature was introduced.

Insight: The pilot demonstrated that integrating ISA with regional tax offices created a feedback loop,allowing local auditors to fine‑tune the scoring thresholds based on sector‑specific risk patterns.

Looking ahead: The next phase of digital tax administration

• Integration with European Tax Data Exchange System (TEDES) – enabling cross‑border risk scoring for multinational enterprises.
• Expansion to VAT real‑time reporting – leveraging ISA to flag suspicious intra‑EU transactions within 48 hours.
• Continuous learning – adopting reinforcement‑learning techniques to adapt scoring models as fraudsters evolve their tactics.

By embedding Sogei’s ISA into the core of its audit workflow, the Revenue Agency is not only modernizing its control mechanisms but also setting a benchmark for digital risk scoring in public finance worldwide.