2027 MLB Season Faces Lockout Threat if Union Talks Fail

Tony Clark, the executive director of the MLB Players Association, talks to reports before Game 1 of the 2025 World Series. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

MLB Photos via Getty Images

No matter how much anyone tries to diminish it, the word “lockout” is going to hang over the 2026 Major League Baseball season like a plump slider about to be deposited into the far reaches of your favorite neighborhood ballpark.

Tony Clark, executive director of the MLB Players Association, has sounded like a broken record this year each time he’s addressed the media: Let’s not try to fix what isn’t broken. During spring training, at the All-Star Game, the World Series and this past week after player meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz., with selected members of the press.

An unedited audio file of that conversation was provided to Forbes by the union.

“As an organization you get ready for the next negotiations as soon as the ink is dried on the previous one,” Clark said. “I can’t speak for the other side, but our interests are getting into the room and hammering out a fair and equitable deal. That’s our commitment. The other stuff is just noise.”

The current Basic Agreement is set to expire on Dec. 1, 2026. Negotiations typically begin during spring training and will be the last for commissioner Rob Manfred, who says he will retire when his current contract expires on Jan. 25, 2029.

The union is anticipating tough sessions and is preparing for at least an offseason lockout, a redux of what happened before the current contract was signed during the spring of 2022. While that season was delayed, games were not missed.

There have been no negotiations thus far, either front or back channel, Clark said.

“The lines of communication are open. And any time those happen our players know about it.”

Earlier this year, Manfred rattled the sword about another lockout, although lately he’s been silent on the issue, refusing to address it during the World Series. Clark spoke out during last spring training saying, “Unless I am mistaken, the league has said there’s going to be a work stoppage. So, I don’t think I’m speaking out of school in that regard.”

He didn’t mention the possible lockout in his 35-minute talk last week.

“We never go into negotiations trying to miss games,” Clark said. “I can’t speak for the other side. But in our history we’ve missed games. We go in trying to move the industry forward. But we’re going to be prepared for what the other side is telling us they’re doing.”

The owners have talked about a salary cap and floor as exists in all the other organized pro sports to allegedly promote competitive balance. But the union is dead set against that. They will point out there are penalties in the current contract, involving the luxury tax threshold, many of them not enforced.

Lesser earning teams are supposed to invest their revenue-sharing dollars – with some exclusions – into player payrolls. Some do and others use it to offset losses.

Clark said this has been a hot topic of discussion with the players. Every team has the wherewithal to compete, he said.

“Knowing there are some teams that can compete, but have chosen not to, how does that affect the industry?” he asked.

The owners need to introduce some sort of creative concept proving the cap/floor system is better for the financial health of all the players, rather than a chosen few. They have to resolve their own differences on how to evenly share local television and streaming dollars before negotiations with the union even begin.

Since it takes a 75% vote of the 30 owners to approve anything, an even split of regional TV dollars seems unrealistic. The big-market teams that have their own networks or large contracts are enough in number to block it. The New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, and even the Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas A’s head that list.

If the owners go into the negotiations attempting again to jam a cap/floor down the union’s throat, there will certainly be a lockout and perhaps a long one that could this time extend into the 2027 season. That would cost both sides games for the first time since the last player strike at the end of 1994 season cancelled 948 games, the playoffs and World Series.

At that point, the owners will lose revenue, and the players will not be paid. They’re paid from the first game of the regular season to the last and no time outside of that period. It will be a matter of which side blinks first; historically it’s the owners.

“We don’t go into the conversation looking to damage the game,” Clark said. “Particularly in a world where the game is moving in a very good direction. We should be celebrating our guys and the game and what we’re seeing. Our guys are doing that night in and night out.”

MLB is making plenty of money. The league set a record this past season by generating team sponsorship revenue of $2.05 billion. The two-time defending World Series-winning Dodgers drew more than 4 million at 50,000-seat Dodger Stadium for the first time and broke the $1 billion mark in local revenue. They are exhibit No. 1.

How long does anyone think Mark Walter and Guggenheim Baseball are going to want to give up any part of that? Include them in the Forbes list of Top 10 valued MLB teams that all should be against an in-season lockout. Again, it takes only 25% of the owners to balk at anything. Will these teams vote in their best interest or the interest of the other owners?

From the union’s point of view, with investment of licensing dollars that have been retained over the past five years rather than dispersed to the players, the MLBPA is in the strongest financal position it’s ever been for players to withstand a lockout that cancels games.

“The dollar amounts are higher than they’ve ever been, and the organization has been preparing to put the players into a position of flexibility to do whatever they want,” Clark said.

So, the clock is ticking. And the lockout is pending.

“The noise is suggesting that the sky is falling,” Clark concluded. “We’ll see once we start formal bargaining, but our players are ready for whatever that’s going to look like.”

Okay, here’s a summary of the provided text, broken down into key takeaways. This is designed to be a concise overview of the potential MLB lockout situation as of the document’s creation.

H2: Current Status of MLB‑MLBPA Negotiations

H3: Negotiation Timeline (2025‑2026)

1. January 2025 – Expiration of the 2022‑2025 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).
2. February 2025 – Formal negotiation kickoff; both sides file opening proposals.
3. July 2025 – First mediation session after stalemate on salary arbitration limits.
4. November 2025 – Deadline set by the MLB commissioner to reach a tentative agreement before the 2027 spring training deadline (March 1, 2026).

H3: Core Issues on the Table

• Salary arbitration reform – MLB seeks to tighten eligibility; MLBPA pushes for broader player access.
• Luxury‑tax threshold – Debate over raising the cap to $260 million versus maintaining the current $210 million.
• Service‑time manipulation – Players demand stricter penalties for teams delaying MLB debut.
• Free‑agency eligibility – Proposal to shorten the six‑year service requirement to five years.
• Revenue sharing model – MLB wants a modest increase; MLBPA argues for a larger proportion to small‑market clubs.

H2: Potential Lockout Scenarios and Their Impact

H3: Shortened 2027 Regular Season

• Reduced game count: From 162 to as low as 120 games if a lockout lasts 60 days.
• Rescheduled double‑headers: More back‑to‑back games,raising player fatigue risk.

H3: Delayed Opening Day

• Original date: March 28, 2027.
• Lockout‑induced shift: Possible opening as late as April 15, compressing the postseason calendar.

H3: Financial Consequences

Stakeholder	Risk	Estimated loss (2027)
Ticket holders	Refunds or exchange fees	$500 M (U.S.)
Broadcasters	Lost ad inventory, renegotiated contracts	$300 M (national)
Merchandise sales	Decline in fan engagement	$150 M
Local economies	Reduced tourism, hotel occupancy	$200 M (major market cities)

H3: Legal and Contractual triggers

• Collective bargaining clause: Allows either side to impose a work stoppage if negotiations stall past the March 1 deadline.
• Force‑majeure provisions: Some venue contracts include lockout clauses that could void rental agreements without penalties.

H2: Historical Reference Points

H3: 1994-95 MLB strike

• Duration: 139 days, resulting in the cancellation of the World Series.
• key lesson: Prolonged labor disputes dramatically erode fan trust and revenue streams.

H3: 2021‑22 MLB Lockout

• Duration: 99 days.
• Outcome: A 162‑game season was salvaged, but the opening day was postponed by three weeks, and several marquee games were moved to neutral sites.

H2: Benefits of Reaching an Early Agreement

• Preserves full 162‑game schedule, protecting $2 B+ in projected league revenue.
• Maintains broadcast rights stability, ensuring existing media contracts remain intact.
• Boosts fan confidence, reducing ticket refunds and protecting season‑ticket renewal rates.
• Protects player health, avoiding congested schedules that increase injury risk.

H2: Practical Tips for Fans and Stakeholders

H3: For Season‑Ticket Holders

• Check refund policies – Most clubs offer a “lockout protection” clause; verify deadlines.
• Consider resale platforms – If games are cancelled, resale may recoup a portion of the cost.

H3: For Sports bettors

• Monitor CBA deadline – Odds on lockout outcomes shift dramatically in the final two weeks.
• Diversify wagers – Include futures on shortened season length and adjusted playoff formats.

H3: For Local Businesses (Bars, Restaurants, Hotels)

• Negotiate flexible contracts with MLB venues to avoid penalties if games are postponed.
• Promote alternative events – Host baseball‑themed nights or viewing parties for postponed games.

H2: FAQ – Quick Answers

1. What triggers a lockout in MLB?
• A work stoppage can be declared when the commissioner determines that the collective bargaining process has stalled and a deadline (e.g., March 1) is missed.

2. Will player salaries be affected if a lockout occurs?
• Players do not recieve salaries during a lockout; however, any agreement reached typically includes retroactive salary adjustments for the missed period.

3. How will the postseason be impacted?
• If the regular season is shortened, the league may eliminate the wild Card round or reduce the number of teams qualifying for the playoffs.

4. Are there any precedents for a lockout‑free 2027 season?
• the 2022 CBA introduced “early‑resolution” clauses that incentivize both parties to settle before the deadline; applying these could avert a lockout.

H2: Key Takeaways for Stakeholders

• Monitor negotiation milestones – February, July, and November 2025 are critical windows.
• prepare contingency plans – Teams, broadcasters, and venues should have alternate scheduling and financial safeguards.
• Engage with fan interaction – Obvious updates reduce speculation and preserve brand loyalty.

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