HoonSmart.com >> Pie Securities assesses the stock market recovery this week. After falling to reflect concerns about inflation, interest rates are expected to move in the range of 1,560 – 1,585 points. Recommend 11 stocks in power plants, retail and tourism sectors BGRIM, GULF, GPSC, RATCH, SCGP, BJC, CPALL, AOT, CENTEL, ERW, MINT raise stocks. Featured SCGP, CBG
Analysis of Securities Company Pi (Pi) Assessing the direction of SET INDEX This week is expected to continue to recover. Because the market has adjusted downward to reflect concerns about both inflation and interest. This was reflected by the decline in yields on 2- and 10-year government bonds. Factors that will have a significant effect on the market will be in the second week of July (CPI inflation).
Strategic investments also favor power plant stocks (BGRIM, GULF, GPSC, RATCH), driven by lower gas prices and US Bond Yield, as well as specific positive stocks (SCGP). Retail (BJC, CPALL) is also recommended. Arrive at travel (AOT, CENTEL, ERW, MINT) estimate this week’s frame 1,560 – 1,585 points
SCGP (buy / target price Bt66.00) expects earnings to improve from 2Q22 onwards, driven by the release of lockdowns that will stimulate demand for products. Higher average selling price in higher cost environment and new capacity There is also a positive factor from lower shipping costs.
CBG (BUY / target price Bt125.00) Earnings expected to improve QoQ every quarter of 2022, driven by a few new product launches, strong spirits sales revenue growth. Wholesale price adjustment 1%-3%, soaring energy drink sales volume in Thailand and rebounding sales in CLMV and China.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.68 percent on Friday, with interest rates easing after weak economic data and recent declines in commodity prices helped ease inflation concerns (oil, coal). The US economic data released on Friday included consumer confidence by the University of Michigan at 50, well below the market estimate of 50.2.
Meanwhile, it announced its economic sentiment index of 53.8, below the market estimate of 55.4 and the lowest in 12 years. However, the US reported first-hand home sales at 6.96 million, better than the market estimate of 5.9 million. BRT crude oil prices rebounded to a gain of 2.8 percent following reports that some capacity from Libya had disappeared. due to increased political protests Short term positive for oil group (PTTEP)
This week’s main focus will be on US economic data: (1) Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence (CB) report, Bloomberg estimates at 100; (2) May’s PCE index on Thursday night (GMT+8). Bloomberg forecasts 6.4%YoY, 0.7%MoM and Core PCE (Price Index Excluding Food and Energy) 4.8%YoY, 0.4%MoM. If the announcement is below market expectations, it will be positive for the investment climate. (3) On Friday, Bloomberg’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) estimates at 54.7. For the US economy, it is lower than expected because if it accelerates faster than expected, the market will turn to inflation concerns.
As for internal factors, international trade will be reported. Bloomberg forecasts export value will grow 8.4%YoY and import will grow 17.9%YoY, with a valuation of US$1.4 billion of trade balance deficit. Still, the trend is weakening and there is a chance that foreign investors will continue to sell.