Cal Raleigh’s Ascent: Is the Mariners Catcher a Legitimate MVP Contender?
The baseball season is revealing its truths. Past the early-season noise, sample sizes are solidifying, and genuine trends are emerging. One of the most compelling stories unfolding is the remarkable performance of Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. While not a complete surprise – Raleigh won a Gold Glove last year and consistently delivered 30+ home runs from 2022-2024, even within the run-suppressing confines of T-Mobile Park – his 2025 campaign has reached a new level, placing him squarely in the AL MVP conversation.
Currently, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is the overwhelming favorite (-8000 odds according to Caesars), but Raleigh (+7500) is a legitimate third in the running. Should Judge falter due to injury or a regression to the mean, Raleigh is positioned to capitalize. He’s on track to become the first Mariner to win the MVP since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 and the first catcher to claim the award since Buster Posey in 2012.
Raleigh’s WAR: Entering Historic Territory
Raleigh’s value is best encapsulated by his Wins Above Replacement (WAR). He currently ranks among the top position players in the American League, trailing only Judge. His current pace projects to an impressive 8.1 WAR for the season – firmly within MVP territory. More significantly, this puts him in rarefied air historically.
Consider the highest single-season WAR totals by a catcher since 1900 (minimum 75% of games played at catcher):
- Mike Piazza, Dodgers (1997): 8.7
- Johnny Bench, Reds (1972): 8.6
- Gary Carter, Expos (1982): 8.6
- Johnny Bench, Reds (1974): 7.9
- Joe Mauer, Twins (2009): 7.8
Raleigh is on pace to author just the fourth 8-WAR season by a primary catcher in MLB history, and a slight increase in value could even surpass Piazza’s record. This isn’t just good; it’s potentially historic.
Power at a Premium Position
While Raleigh’s overall game is strong, his offensive production is driving his MVP candidacy. As of this writing, he’s slashing .258/.372/.603 with 19 home runs (second in the AL to Shohei Ohtani’s 20) and 34 unintentional walks. His OPS+ of 176 – 76% better than the league average – ranks third in the AL. These are numbers typically associated with elite first basemen, but Raleigh achieves them from the most demanding defensive position on the field.
The average catcher this season is hitting .245/.317/.397. Remove Raleigh’s contributions, and those numbers drop even further. He’s not just exceeding expectations for a catcher; he’s redefining them.
The Metrics Back It Up: Elite Bat Speed and Barrel Rate
Raleigh’s success isn’t just about luck. He boasts elite bat speed and exit velocities, coupled with a barrel rate in the 99th percentile among all MLB hitters. This means he consistently makes hard, well-angled contact. Combined with his excellent walk rate and ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone, he’s a nightmare for opposing pitchers.
Clutch Performance: Delivering When It Matters Most
Beyond the raw numbers, Raleigh excels in high-leverage situations. His overall OPS is .975, but that jumps to 1.204 in “late and close” games. With the score tied, his OPS climbs to 1.023, and it’s an impressive 1.072 when the score is within one run. In high-leverage spots, his OPS soars to 1.289. While clutch hitting is notoriously difficult to predict, Raleigh consistently delivers when the stakes are highest.
Durability and Defensive Value
Raleigh’s durability is another asset. He’s played in every Mariners game this season, logging 369 2/3 defensive innings – fifth-most among MLB catchers. He’s also a surprisingly effective base stealer (5-for-6) and limits double plays (just two hit into all season).
While Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) currently gives him a -1 rating, Statcast ranks him seventh out of 35 qualifying catchers in Fielding Run Value, suggesting WAR may be undervaluing his defensive contributions. This could correct itself as the season progresses.
The Mariners’ Cornerstone
Cal Raleigh isn’t just having a good season; he’s the engine driving the Mariners’ playoff aspirations. His broad impact on the team is undeniable. If he maintains this level of performance, the conversation won’t just be about whether he wins the AL MVP, but whether he’s authored one of the greatest catcher seasons in baseball history. The potential is there, and the numbers are telling a compelling story.
What are your predictions for Cal Raleigh’s season? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Learn more about WAR and advanced baseball metrics at FanGraphs.
