Senedd 2026: How Electoral Reform in Wales Will Reshape Welsh Politics and Potentially Beyond
Will the upcoming Senedd elections be fundamentally different from those we’ve seen before? Absolutely. Forget the incremental changes; the 2026 Welsh Senedd elections promise a radical shift in how Welsh democracy functions. With a larger parliament and a new voting system on the horizon, it’s time to dive into what this could mean for the future of Welsh politics and even spark further electoral reform across the UK.
The Senedd’s Transformation: More Members, More Impact
The most immediate change is the expansion of the Senedd itself. From May 2026, the number of elected members will swell from 60 to 96. This increase directly addresses a key criticism: that the existing Senedd was, in the words of a 2017 independent expert panel, “no longer fit for purpose.” The current structure struggles to effectively scrutinise the Welsh government and adequately serve constituents. A larger Senedd is designed to alleviate this, potentially improving the quality of Welsh legislation and increasing democratic accountability.
Wales currently has a smaller number of elected politicians per capita than other UK nations and many European countries. This has led to concerns about the workload placed on each member. Expanding the Senedd aims to ease these pressures, potentially leading to more effective representation, and providing more opportunities for people from different backgrounds to stand for election.
Goodbye AMS, Hello D’Hondt: Understanding the New Voting System
Alongside the increased number of members comes a significant change in how those members are elected. The current “additional member system” (AMS), a hybrid of first-past-the-post (FPTP) and proportional representation, is being replaced with a closed-list proportional system. The system will employ the D’Hondt method. This is designed to ensure that the proportion of seats a party wins more closely reflects the actual votes they receive. However, voters will no longer be able to directly choose individual candidates in their constituencies but will vote for a party, which will present a list of candidates. The D’Hondt method will then determine the successful candidates based on the list.
Wales will be carved into 16 constituencies, each electing six members. Voters will choose one party or independent candidate. Parties will submit lists of up to eight candidates per constituency. Seats are allocated based on the vote share each party receives, and candidates are elected in the order they appear on the party’s list. This shift marks a significant departure from the traditional constituency-based voting most people in the UK are familiar with.
The decision to adopt the D’Hondt method was made with the aim of being fairer, more transparent, and more proportional. It is currently used in many European countries, including Spain and Portugal. This shift will bring the Welsh system more in line with the electoral models of many of its European counterparts.
“The transition to a closed-list system is a fundamental change. While designed to achieve better proportional representation, it could lead to unforeseen outcomes in terms of local representation and the influence of individual MSs. Voters need to understand these implications.”
Potential Roadblocks and Considerations for Voters
This overhaul isn’t without its potential challenges. One of the biggest concerns is voter confusion, which could lead to lower turnout. As Stephen Clear, a Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law at Bangor University, points out, Wales faces a complex situation with different voting systems at different levels. Voters in Wales are used to FPTP for Westminster elections, some councils are experimenting with the single transferable vote (STV), and from 2026, the Senedd will have D’Hondt. This means a Welsh voter could have to understand three different voting systems for three different elections. This complexity highlights the need for clear and accessible communication from the Welsh Government and other organisations, explaining how the new voting system works and how it benefits the voters.
Furthermore, the shift to a party-list system means that voters will have less direct say in *who* represents them. This could shift focus from individual candidate personalities to party platforms and ideologies. While the D’Hondt method is designed to create a more proportional outcome, it could, depending on the local context, favor larger parties over smaller ones. Whether this plays out in Wales remains to be seen.
The Broader Implications: Will Wales Lead the Way in Electoral Reform?
The changes in Wales could have ramifications beyond its borders. Electoral reform in Wales often reignites discussions across the UK about how the system could be improved. The FPTP model, which is used for Westminster elections, is often criticised for producing “wasted votes” and encouraging tactical voting, particularly in safe seats. A more representative and effective Senedd may not only reshape Welsh democracy but might also trigger a wider debate about changing the voting model.
The new proportional system in Wales could encourage more diverse representation, as parties are incentivised to create varied candidate lists to attract broader appeal. This could also lead to new models for collaboration among political parties. All of these elements could influence the political discourse, the political landscape, and potentially, other nations’ and regions’ electoral models.
Did you know?
The D’Hondt method is also used in the election of the European Parliament, and many local councils in Scotland.
Navigating the New Landscape: What Voters Need to Know
Preparing for the 2026 Senedd elections is crucial. Here’s what voters should keep in mind:
- Understand the D’Hondt method: Familiarise yourself with how parties will be allocating their candidates.
- Research parties and their lists: Without direct candidate choice, voters need to pay extra attention to party platforms and candidate rankings.
- Seek clear information: Stay informed by paying attention to updates from the Welsh government and trusted media sources.
- Engage in the conversation: Discuss the new system and its implications with others in your community to boost understanding and encourage participation.
The success of the reformed Senedd system depends on an informed and engaged electorate.
Key Takeaway:
The 2026 Senedd elections represent a pivotal moment for Welsh democracy. Understanding the changes, from the increased number of MSs to the new D’Hondt voting system, is critical for voters to fully participate and shape the future of Welsh politics. Further, if this new system works well, Wales can potentially serve as an example for the rest of the UK and Europe when it comes to fairer and more representative politics.
Pro Tip:
Follow Welsh politics news sources closely in the run-up to the elections. They will likely publish guides and explainers on the new system, helping you stay informed.
Frequently Asked Questions
How will the D’Hondt method work in practice?
Parties will submit lists of candidates. The D’Hondt formula will then be applied to determine how many seats each party wins based on its overall vote share. Candidates are elected from the lists in the order they appear.
Will I still vote for a local representative?
You will be voting for a party or an independent candidate, rather than an individual candidate. The chosen party’s candidates will then be elected based on their position on the list.
How will this affect smaller parties?
The D’Hondt method can sometimes favor larger parties. Smaller parties may need to perform particularly well to secure seats.
What if I don’t like the candidates on a party’s list?
You will need to weigh the overall party platform and the candidates presented. It’s more important than ever to research the parties and their policies to make an informed decision.
The 2026 Senedd elections will be a turning point. By understanding the changes and their implications, voters can actively shape the future of Welsh democracy and potentially influence the national debate around electoral reform. The shift to a more proportional system presents an opportunity for more representative governance and a more responsive political system. Explore other changes in Welsh democracy with this Relevant Article Topic. Consider also this guide on the rise of Welsh nationalism and this study on electoral models and participation to understand more.
