Indonesia’s Straits: Navigating a China-US Dispute

this article argues that Australia and its allies, especially in the context of the AUKUS security partnership, are critically underestimating the importance of securing access through Indonesia for their deterrence strategies in the Indo-Pacific. The author, Michael Roach, contends that current strategic planning has not kept pace with the operational reality of needing assured passage through Southeast Asian sea lanes.

Here’s a breakdown of the key points:

Indonesia’s Stance: indonesia, a crucial geopolitical node, maintains a policy of non-alignment and strategic autonomy. This means Jakarta will not automatically support Western operations and may actively resist being drawn into conflicts. The article highlights Indonesian MP Tubagus Hassanudin’s statement that sea lanes cannot be used for war-related activities. Flawed deterrence Planning: The author identifies a critical flaw in current deterrence planning, which assumes Indonesian cooperation without sufficient diplomatic groundwork. This is particularly risky given Indonesia’s commitment to strategic autonomy under President Prabowo Subianto, which involves balancing ties with the US, China, and others, and avoiding formal alignment.
Examples of Non-Alignment: Indonesia’s recent engagements, such as President Prabowo’s meeting with Vladimir Putin to strengthen bilateral ties and discuss defense cooperation, and its decision to join BRICS, are cited as evidence of Jakarta’s intent to diversify its partnerships and play a more autonomous role on the global stage. Need for Realistic Scenario Planning: Australia and its allies are urged to “stress-test” their postures by considering scenarios where access through Indonesia is denied (e.g., blocked sea lanes or restricted overflight). This would ensure their strategic plans are resilient under less-than-ideal conditions, preventing deterrence from being based on assumptions rather than operational realism.
Beyond Legal Guarantees: While Indonesia is bound by international law (UNCLOS), allies cannot solely rely on this. if Jakarta feels its neutrality or sovereignty is threatened, it may not strictly adhere to these laws. Political alignment and trust-building are therefore as crucial as legal rights. The Importance of Visible Regional Alignment: For deterrence to be credible, it must appear coherent to both adversaries and partners.A fragmented or poorly coordinated approach increases the risk of miscalculation. Without informal regional alignment, allied resolve signals will lack traction. Indonesia’s hedging could lead other regional nations to follow suit.
Trust-Building and Tangible Incentives: The article emphasizes that deterrence relies not just on bases and hardware but crucially on regional access. This access, particularly through Indonesia, depends on building strategic trust through defense dialog and sustained, high-level engagement that respects Indonesia’s autonomy while offering tangible incentives for cooperation.
Southeast Asian Access as a Core Requirement: The article concludes by stating that allied strategy must treat Southeast Asian access not as a mere convenience but as a core requirement for regional stability. Without a viable route through Indonesia, forward postures are rendered meaningless.

In essence, the article is a call to action for Western allies to engage more deeply and diplomatically with Indonesia, acknowledging its strategic autonomy and non-aligned foreign policy, to ensure their deterrence strategies in the Indo-Pacific are grounded in operational reality rather than wishful thinking.

how might disruptions to the Indonesian straits impact global supply chains and increase shipping costs?

The Strategic Importance of Indonesian Waters

The Indonesian archipelago, comprised of over 17,000 islands, controls critical maritime chokepoints – the Malacca, Lombok, and Sunda Straits. These straits are vital for global trade, particularly energy shipments, with a significant percentage of China’s oil and gas imports transiting these waters. This dependence makes the security and freedom of navigation through these Indonesian straits paramount, and increasingly, a focal point in the escalating china-US rivalry. Understanding the geopolitical landscape and potential flashpoints is crucial for businesses,policymakers,and anyone interested in maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region.

key Chokepoints and Traffic Volume

Malacca Strait: The busiest shipping lane globally, connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Approximately 80% of China’s oil imports pass through this strait. Concerns revolve around piracy, terrorism, and potential blockades.

Lombok Strait: An choice route to the Malacca Strait,gaining importance as traffic congestion increases. offers a slightly longer but potentially safer passage.

Sunda Strait: Connects the Java Sea to the Indian Ocean. Primarily used for domestic Indonesian shipping but also sees international traffic.

these straits collectively handle an estimated 90,000 vessels annually, representing trillions of dollars in trade. The sheer volume underscores the economic vulnerability should these waterways become disrupted. Freedom of navigation is therefore a core interest for both the US and China.

US and China’s Competing Interests

The United States maintains a strong interest in ensuring freedom of navigation in the Indonesian straits, viewing it as essential for regional stability and global economic prosperity. The US Navy regularly conducts freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) in the region, often challenging excessive maritime claims. These operations, while intended to uphold international law (specifically UNCLOS – the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), are frequently perceived by China as provocative.

China, on the other hand, seeks to secure its energy supply routes and expand its influence in the region.its growing naval capabilities and assertive foreign policy raise concerns about potential attempts to control or influence traffic through these straits. The Belt and Road initiative (BRI), with its associated maritime infrastructure projects, further complicates the situation, potentially increasing China’s leverage. China’s stance on maritime rights differs from the US interpretation of UNCLOS, leading to ongoing disputes.

Indonesia’s Position and Neutrality

Indonesia, as a sovereign nation, prioritizes maintaining its territorial integrity and neutrality. It adheres to the principles of Pancasila, its state ideology, which emphasizes national unity and non-alignment. Indonesia actively promotes regional cooperation through ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and seeks to avoid being drawn into the direct competition between the US and China.

Though, Indonesia faces a delicate balancing act. It relies on both the US and china for economic partnerships and security cooperation. Strengthening its own maritime capabilities,including its navy and coast guard,is a key priority. Indonesia’s recent focus on developing its maritime infrastructure,including ports and surveillance systems,demonstrates its commitment to safeguarding its waters.

Potential Flashpoints and Risk Assessment

several scenarios could escalate tensions in the Indonesian straits:

1. Increased Military Presence: A significant increase in naval deployments by both the US and China could lead to accidental encounters or miscalculations.
2. Assertive Maritime Claims: China’s continued assertion of expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea could spill over into the Indonesian straits.
3. Piracy and Terrorism: A resurgence of piracy or terrorist activity could provide a pretext for increased military intervention.
4. Cyberattacks: Disruptions to port infrastructure or shipping networks through cyberattacks could cripple trade flows.
5. Gray Zone Tactics: The use of non-military tactics, such as harassment of vessels or the deployment of maritime militia, could escalate tensions without triggering a direct military conflict.

Risk mitigation strategies include enhanced maritime domain awareness, increased regional cooperation, and adherence to international law.

the Role of UNCLOS and International Law

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides the legal framework for maritime activities. However, interpretations of UNCLOS differ, particularly regarding territorial claims and the right of innocent passage. The US, while not a party to UNCLOS, generally adheres to its principles. China’s interpretation of UNCLOS has been criticized for being overly expansive and inconsistent with international norms. Strengthening the enforcement of UNCLOS and promoting a rules-based order are crucial for preventing conflict. International maritime law is the cornerstone of stability.

Economic Implications and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Disruption to shipping through the Indonesian straits would have severe economic consequences.

Increased Shipping Costs: Rerouting vessels would substantially increase transportation costs, impacting global trade.

* Supply Chain Disruptions: Del