Israel’s Strategy for Syria: Dismemberment and Stabilization

This article discusses a speech given by Syrian President bashar Al-Assad (referred to as “Sharia president” and “Syrian President” in the text) detailing his perspective on the internal struggles in Syria and external interference.Here’s a breakdown of the key points:

Accusations against Israel: Assad claims that the Israeli occupation aims to destabilize Syria, create sedition, and turn the country into a chaotic state through dismantling the unity of its people. He alleges that Israel’s actions, especially the targeting of civil and governmental facilities, have elaborate efforts to restore stability in the Suwayda Governorate.
Internal Unity: Assad emphasizes the importance of Syrian unity and rejects any attempts to divide the nation or its people. He asserts that Syria is not a testing ground for foreign conspiracies or a place to fulfill external ambitions at the cost of Syrian lives.
Addressing the Druze Community: The president specifically addresses the Druze community, acknowledging them as an integral part of Syria. He reassures them that syria will not be a site for division or sedition and that their rights and freedoms are a priority.He condemns any efforts to draw them to an external party or cause internal division.
Internal Fighting in Suwayda: Assad states that the Syrian government has intervened to stop internal fighting in Suwayda between armed groups and those from surrounding areas,stemming from old differences. He blames “groups outside the law” for creating chaos, tampering, and inciting sedition, accusing their leaders of prioritizing personal interests over national interests and committing crimes against civilians. Security Measures and Local Responsibility: The president highlights the deployment of defense and interior ministries in Suwayda to restore security and end escalation. He also mentions a decision to assign local factions and religious leaders (sheikhs of the mind) with the responsibility of maintaining security in Suwayda as the best option for protecting national unity and avoiding a wider war.
National Interest: Assad frames this decision as stemming from a deep awareness of the seriousness of the situation and the need to avoid sliding into another devastating war, especially after recovering from the previous conflict and facing political and economic challenges.

In essence, the article presents Assad’s narrative of external manipulation by Israel fueling internal conflicts, while concurrently calling for national unity and asserting the government’s efforts to restore order, even by delegating security responsibilities to local actors in certain regions.

To what extent has israel’s strategy in Syria successfully prevented the establishment of Iranian military infrastructure?

The Core Objectives: Security and Regional Influence

Israel’s approach to the Syrian Civil War, evolving since 2011, isn’t simply about non-intervention. It’s a calculated strategy centered on two primary,interwoven objectives: bolstering its national security and expanding its regional influence.This strategy, frequently enough described as aiming for the dismemberment and subsequent stabilization of Syria, is complex and multifaceted.Key to understanding this is recognizing israel’s red lines: preventing the establishment of Iranian military infrastructure within Syria and hindering the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

preventing Iranian Entrenchment: This remains the paramount concern. Israel views a strong Iranian presence in Syria as an existential threat.

Neutralizing Hezbollah’s Arsenal: Hezbollah, a key Iranian proxy, poses a direct military challenge to Israel. Limiting its access to sophisticated weaponry is crucial.

Maintaining the Golan Heights: Israel effectively annexed the Golan Heights, and maintaining control over this territory is non-negotiable.

Operational Tactics: A Multi-Layered approach

Israel’s strategy isn’t a single, overt action but a series of covert and overt operations. These can be categorized into several key tactics:

1. Airstrikes: As 2013, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes within syria, targeting Iranian military facilities, Hezbollah convoys, and suspected weapons shipments. These strikes are rarely acknowledged officially, but widely reported by international media and confirmed by regional sources. These operations frequently enough focus on Damascus, Homs, and areas near the Lebanese border.
2. Support for Syrian Opposition Groups: While not providing direct military support on a large scale,Israel has offered humanitarian aid and,at times,medical assistance to rebel groups operating in the south of Syria,notably those aligned against both the Assad regime and Iranian-backed forces. This support aimed to create a buffer zone along the Israeli border.
3. Intelligence Gathering: Israel maintains a robust intelligence network within Syria, providing crucial data about Iranian activities, Hezbollah movements, and the overall security landscape. This intelligence is vital for planning and executing airstrikes and other operations.
4. Diplomatic Efforts: Israel actively lobbies international powers, particularly the United States and russia, to address its concerns regarding syria. This includes advocating for stricter enforcement of sanctions against the Assad regime and limiting iranian influence.
5. Cyber Warfare: Reports suggest Israel has engaged in cyber operations targeting Syrian military infrastructure and Iranian networks operating within the country.

The Dismemberment Strategy: Fostering fragmentation

The concept of “dismemberment” doesn’t necessarily imply a formal partition of Syria. Instead, it refers to a purposeful strategy of exacerbating existing divisions within the country to prevent the re-establishment of a unified, centralized Syrian state under Bashar al-Assad’s control.

Supporting Kurdish Autonomy: Israel has, at times, signaled support for Kurdish aspirations for autonomy in northern Syria, viewing the Kurds as a potential counterweight to both Assad and Iranian influence. This support has been cautious,however,due to concerns about Kurdish ties to the PKK,which Israel considers a terrorist association.

Maintaining a De Facto Border Zone: Israel has sought to maintain a zone of influence along its border with Syria, preventing the deployment of hostile forces and ensuring its security. This has involved supporting local actors and, at times, intervening directly to disrupt potential threats.

exploiting Sectarian Divisions: While not actively fueling sectarian conflict, Israel has benefited from the existing divisions within Syrian society, which have weakened the Assad regime and created opportunities for its strategic objectives.

Stabilization Efforts: A Focus on the South

While actively contributing to the fragmentation of Syria, Israel also seeks to stabilize specific areas, particularly the southern region bordering Israel and Jordan. This stabilization is aimed at preventing the resurgence of extremist groups and ensuring a secure border environment.

The Southern Syria Buffer Zone: Following the Syrian government’s recapture of southern Syria in 2018, Israel worked with Russia to establish a demilitarized zone along the border, intended to keep Iranian forces and Hezbollah fighters away from the Israeli border.

Cooperation with Jordan: Israel maintains close security cooperation with Jordan, sharing intelligence and coordinating efforts to counter terrorism and maintain stability in the region.

* Humanitarian Aid and Reconstruction: Israel has provided limited humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians, particularly in the south, and has expressed willingness to participate in reconstruction efforts, contingent on a political settlement that addresses its security concerns.

case Study: Operation Northern Shield (2019)

Operation Northern Shield, launched in January 2019, exemplifies Israel’s strategy.The operation involved the exposure and destruction of Hezbollah tunnels crossing the border from Lebanon into Israel. While technically focused on Lebanon, the operation was directly linked to israel’s concerns about Hezbollah’s presence in syria and its ability to launch attacks against Israel.The operation demonstrated Israel’s willingness to use force to defend its borders and disrupt Hezbollah’s activities.

Challenges and Future Outlook