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[가상자산 나침반] Bitcoin expectation… The key to rally

Crypto Markets React to Landmark US Legislation: Initial Surge Gives Way to Strategic Positioning

The cryptocurrency world is buzzing, but the initial euphoria following the passage of the ‘Crypto 3 Law’ in the US House of Representatives is giving way to a more measured assessment. Last week saw a dramatic spike in virtual asset prices, briefly pushing the total market capitalization past $4 trillion – a historic first. Now, as the dust settles, the market is adjusting, but experts predict a long-term bullish trend fueled by regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. This is a breaking news development with significant implications for investors and the future of finance.

Bitcoin & Ethereum Lead the Charge, But Altcoins Are Gaining Traction

As of 9 am today, Bitcoin is trading at $11,700, a 0.4% increase week-over-week. While down from a peak exceeding $123,000 last week – driven by anticipation of the new legislation – the price remains elevated compared to pre-law levels. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has seen an even more substantial rise, jumping 22% in the past week. This surge is largely attributed to expectations surrounding the potential approval of an Ethereum spot ETF, with net inflows reaching a staggering $2.824 billion – the largest weekly inflow since its launch. X-Alfie also experienced a 25% increase, fueled by similar ETF speculation.

What’s in the ‘Crypto 3 Law’ and Why Does It Matter?

The newly passed legislation comprises three key bills: the Genius Act, the Claratty Act, and a bill prohibiting a US Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). The Genius Act aims to activate the stablecoin market, while the Claratty Act seeks to clarify the regulation of digital assets. The prohibition of a CBDC addresses concerns about government control over currency. These changes are expected to reduce regulatory uncertainty, a major hurdle for institutional investors. The passage of these bills signals a growing acceptance of digital assets within the US financial system, potentially unlocking significant capital and innovation.

Institutional Investors Signal Confidence, But Caution Remains

The influx of institutional funds is a key driver of the current market activity. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have seen substantial net inflows, with Ethereum attracting significantly more attention than Bitcoin in recent weeks. However, analysts caution that this momentum may not be sustainable. Delays in the approval of the X-Alfie spot ETF and large-scale selling by long-term Bitcoin holders (“Satoshi era” whales) are potential headwinds. Furthermore, the market is awaiting the final signature and implementation details from President Trump, creating a period of cautious observation.

Beyond the Headlines: The Long-Term Implications for Crypto

The implications of this legislation extend far beyond short-term price fluctuations. The increased regulatory clarity could pave the way for wider adoption of cryptocurrencies by mainstream financial institutions. Bank of America, Citi Group, and JP Morgan Chase have already announced plans to enter the stablecoin market following the Genius Act’s passage. However, this integration also raises concerns about systemic risk, as the virtual asset and traditional financial worlds become increasingly intertwined. The dominance of dollar-based stablecoins like Tether and Circle also warrants continued scrutiny, as their stability is crucial to the broader ecosystem.

Tariff Concerns and Powell’s Stance Add to Market Complexity

Adding another layer of complexity, President Trump’s upcoming tariff announcements on August 1st are expected to heighten market sensitivity. Any escalation in the trade war could trigger a flight to safety, potentially impacting cryptocurrency prices. While Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech is unlikely to have a major impact if he maintains his current stance, the direction of the tariff war remains a significant variable. Cobit researcher Kang Dong-hyun emphasizes that the continued inflow of institutional funds will be the defining factor in the coming weeks.

The cryptocurrency landscape is evolving rapidly. The passage of the ‘Crypto 3 Law’ represents a pivotal moment, but the journey towards mainstream adoption is far from over. Staying informed about regulatory developments, institutional investment trends, and macroeconomic factors will be crucial for navigating this dynamic market. For more in-depth analysis and breaking news on the digital asset space, continue to check back with archyde.com.

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