The Future of Polling: Why Pew Research’s NPORS Matters More Than You Think
A staggering 30% response rate. In an era where getting anyone to answer their phone, let alone participate in a survey, feels like a miracle, that number—the response rate of Pew Research Center’s National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS)—is a game changer. It signals a potential turning point in how we understand public sentiment, and more importantly, how accurately we can predict future trends. For years, pollsters have grappled with declining participation and increasingly skewed results, but NPORS offers a surprisingly effective solution, and its implications extend far beyond the world of political science.
The Problem with Traditional Polling
For decades, researchers relied on methods like random-digit dialing (RDD) to reach a representative sample of the U.S. population. However, the rise of cell phones and the decline of landlines, coupled with a general distrust of institutions, have made these methods increasingly unreliable. Online panels, like Pew’s American Trends Panel (ATP), offered a cost-effective alternative, but they weren’t without their own biases. As Pew Research discovered, ATP estimates sometimes diverged significantly from established benchmarks, particularly regarding religious affiliation and political leaning. For example, the ATP consistently showed a higher percentage of religiously unaffiliated individuals than other high-quality surveys like the General Social Survey (GSS).
NPORS: A Multi-Modal Approach to Accuracy
Launched in 2020, **NPORS** was designed to address these shortcomings. The key? A multi-modal approach. Unlike many polls that rely solely on online responses, NPORS allows participants to respond via paper mail, online, or telephone. This seemingly simple change has a profound impact. The paper and telephone options actively draw in demographics—typically more conservative and religious adults—who are less likely to engage with online surveys. This broadened reach is further bolstered by a series of strategic incentives: visible cash payments included with survey mailings, priority mailing to distinguish the survey from junk mail, and a relatively short questionnaire (around 40 questions, taking approximately seven minutes to complete).
Why the Response Rate Matters
A higher response rate isn’t just about getting more answers; it’s about getting better answers. Lower response rates are more susceptible to nonresponse bias, where the characteristics of those who participate differ systematically from those who don’t. NPORS’ 30% response rate, achieved through these deliberate design choices, significantly reduces this bias, leading to more accurate and reliable estimates of public opinion. This is crucial for everything from political forecasting to understanding social trends.
NPORS as a ‘Reference’ Survey: Calibrating the Future
NPORS isn’t just a poll; it’s a “reference” survey. This means it serves as a benchmark against which other surveys can be calibrated. Pew Research Center now weights its American Trends Panel (ATP) data to align with NPORS estimates for key demographics like political affiliation and religious identity. This process, similar to how the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) is used for calibration, ensures that the ATP data more accurately reflects the broader U.S. population. The advantage of NPORS over other reference surveys, like the ANES, is its timeliness – data is available much faster, allowing for quicker adjustments and more responsive analysis.
Addressing the Challenge of ‘Attitudes’ in Weighting
One might question the validity of weighting by political affiliation, given that it’s an attitude rather than a fixed characteristic. Pew Research Center has addressed this by measuring panelists’ party affiliation at the same time as NPORS data collection, allowing for a synchronized comparison. This approach allows researchers to account for potential biases without forcing the ATP’s partisan distribution to conform to a rigid target, enabling the measurement of evolving political sentiments.
Beyond Pew: The Potential for Wider Adoption
Pew Research Center is making NPORS data freely available, encouraging other researchers to utilize it as a benchmark. This open-access approach could revolutionize the field of public opinion research. Imagine a future where all polls are calibrated against a common, high-quality reference survey like NPORS. The result would be a more consistent and accurate understanding of public sentiment, leading to better-informed policy decisions and a more robust public discourse. For a deeper dive into survey methodology and best practices, explore resources from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).
The success of NPORS demonstrates that investing in rigorous survey design – even if it means higher costs and more logistical complexity – is essential for maintaining the integrity of public opinion research. As the information landscape becomes increasingly fragmented and polarized, the need for accurate and reliable data has never been greater. The future of polling isn’t about faster results; it’s about better results, and NPORS is leading the way.
What innovations in survey methodology do you think will be most crucial in the next decade? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
