Sudan Crisis: An Amani Africa Briefing

Hear’s a breakdown of teh provided text, focusing on the key points and potential outcomes:

Challenges in Mediating Peace in Sudan:

Failed diplomatic Efforts:
The US planned a Quad meeting (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) in Washington D.C. on July 30th to advance Sudan peace talks, but it was postponed due to disagreements over the anticipated outcome.
An earlier UK-convened conference in London in April also failed to produce results, again due to disagreements on a joint declaration.
Complexities of the Conflict:
External Actors and Modern Warfare: The conflict is complicated by external involvement and the use of modern technologies like UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles).
Continued Arms Flow: Despite a UN arms embargo, weapons continue to enter Sudan, fueling violence and harming civilians.

Regional Impact of the Conflict:

Widespread Spillover: All seven of Sudan’s neighboring countries are affected.
Abyei Situation worsens: The disputed border area between Sudan and South Sudan has seen increased intercommunal tensions, displacement, and undermined peace efforts.
Cross-Border Movements: There’s been a important increase in refugees,returnees,and the presence of RSF elements across borders.
Potential for Wider Regional Tension: Recent fighting in the tri-border area of Sudan, Libya, and Egypt involving SAF, RSF, and Libyan National Army affiliates raises concerns of sparking further regional tension.

Expected Outcome of a PSC (Peace and Security Council) Session:

The session is expected to result in a communiqué wiht the following key points:

Grave Concern: Express grave concern over the ongoing fighting and lack of peace breakthroughs.
Call for Ceasefire: Reiterate the imperative to end fighting and call for a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities.
Condemnation of attacks on Civilians: Condemn indiscriminate attacks targeting civilians, specifically mentioning incidents in El Obeid and West Darfur, and state that perpetrators will be held accountable.
End to Kordofan Hostilities and Siege: Call for an end to hostilities in Kordofan and the lifting of the RSF siege on El Fasher, highlighting the worsening humanitarian and hunger crises.
Humanitarian Access: Reiterate the need for unhindered and safe humanitarian access to address the catastrophe and urge parties to ensure civilian protection.
Rejection of Parallel Governments: Restate the position from previous statements (March 11, 2025, and July 29, 2025) condemning the establishment of parallel governments by the RSF and urging AU member states and the international community not to recognise the parallel government announced on July 26, 2025.
Need for Political Process: While perhaps not revisiting the commitment to collaborate with all sudanese stakeholders, clarify that recognition of the Transitional Sovereign Council for territorial integrity safeguarding does not negate the need for a political process for an all-inclusive transitional government and a diplomatic resolution. Reaffirmation of AU Roadmap: Reaffirm commitment to the May 2023 AU roadmap and the principle that there can be no military solution.
* All-Inclusive Political Process: Affirm the need for an all-inclusive political process and national dialogue to develop a transitional roadmap, including constitution-making and elections, to restore constitutional order and bring an end to the war.In essence, the text highlights the deep-seated challenges in resolving the Sudan conflict, the devastating regional consequences, and the specific expectations for a PSC session to address these issues by condemning violence, demanding humanitarian access, rejecting parallel governance, and pushing for a political solution.

How might the failure of Sudan’s political transition contribute to the current escalation of conflict between the SAF and RSF?

The Escalating Conflict & Humanitarian Disaster

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, erupting in April 2023, represents a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (hemedti), has plunged the nation into chaos. Recent reports, like those from Deutschlandfunk [https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/sudan-kaempfe-unruhen-militaer-102.html], highlight the brutal realities: widespread hunger, mass displacement, and rampant sexual violence. The situation is rapidly deteriorating, demanding urgent international attention and a comprehensive response.

Key Drivers of the Sudanese Conflict

Understanding the roots of the conflict is crucial. Several factors contribute to the instability:

Power Struggle: The core issue is a power struggle between al-Burhan and Hemedti, stemming from disagreements over the integration of the RSF into the SAF as part of a transition to civilian rule.

Economic Grievances: Sudan’s fragile economy, plagued by corruption and mismanagement, fuels resentment and instability. competition for control of resources exacerbates tensions.

Political Transition Failure: The 2019 revolution, which ousted Omar al-Bashir, failed to establish a stable, inclusive political system.The subsequent military coup in 2021 further derailed the democratic transition.

Regional Interference: External actors, including neighboring countries and international powers, are accused of supporting different factions, prolonging the conflict and complicating peace efforts. this includes the flow of arms to Sudan.

Humanitarian Impact: A Crisis of Immense Scale

The human cost of the conflict is staggering.

Displacement: Millions have been internally displaced,seeking refuge in safer areas within Sudan. Hundreds of thousands have fled across borders to neighboring countries like Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt, creating a refugee crisis.

Food Insecurity: The fighting disrupts agricultural production and humanitarian aid delivery, leading to severe food shortages. Hunger is widespread, particularly among vulnerable populations.

Healthcare Collapse: The healthcare system is on the brink of collapse, with hospitals overwhelmed, medical supplies depleted, and healthcare workers fleeing the violence. Access to essential medical services is severely limited.

Gender-Based Violence: Reports of sexual violence, including rape and gang rape, are alarmingly high. Women and girls are disproportionately affected by the conflict. Vergewaltigungen (rapes) are being used as a weapon of war.

Child Protection Concerns: Children are facing immense risks, including recruitment into armed groups, separation from their families, and exposure to violence and trauma.

Regional Implications & International Response

The Sudanese crisis has far-reaching implications for regional stability.

Cross-Border instability: The influx of refugees strains the resources of neighboring countries and could possibly destabilize already fragile regions.

Increased Terrorism Risk: The security vacuum created by the conflict could provide opportunities for terrorist groups to operate and expand their influence.

Migration Flows: The crisis is highly likely to trigger increased migration flows towards Europe,adding to existing migration pressures.

The international response has been slow and inadequate.

Ceasefire Attempts: Numerous ceasefire attempts have failed to hold, highlighting the lack of commitment from the warring parties.

Humanitarian Aid: While some humanitarian aid is reaching Sudan, it is far from sufficient to meet the overwhelming needs of the affected population. Access constraints and security concerns hinder aid delivery.

Diplomatic Efforts: International mediation efforts, led by the African Union, IGAD, and the United Nations, have yet to yield a breakthrough. Peace talks remain stalled.

Arms Embargo: Calls for an arms embargo on Sudan have been made, but implementation has been limited.

Amani Africa’s Perspective & Recommendations

Amani Africa advocates for a multi-faceted approach to address the Sudanese crisis:

1. Immediate Ceasefire: Prioritize securing a durable ceasefire through robust international mediation and pressure on the warring parties.
2. Unimpeded Humanitarian Access: Ensure safe and unimpeded access for humanitarian organizations to reach all affected populations.
3. Protection of Civilians: Strengthen measures to protect civilians,particularly women and children,from violence and abuse.
4. accountability for War crimes: Investigate and prosecute those responsible for war crimes and human rights violations.
5. Inclusive political Dialog: Facilitate an inclusive political dialogue involving all stakeholders, including civil society, to address the root causes of the conflict and establish a sustainable path to peace and democracy.
6. Regional Cooperation: Enhance regional cooperation to address the cross-border implications of the crisis and prevent further escalation.
7. Increased Financial Support: Provide increased financial support to humanitarian organizations and neighboring countries hosting refugees.

Understanding Key Terms: Glossary

SAF: Sudanese Armed Forces – The national army of Sudan.

RSF: Rapid Support Forces – A paramilitary group in Sudan