Brandon Woodruff’s Comeback: Decoding the Data Behind His Confusingly Dominant Return
Can Brandon Woodruff truly be back? The numbers say yes, but the underlying metrics paint a picture so perplexing that even seasoned pitching analysts are scratching their heads. Since returning from shoulder surgery in early July, Woodruff has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers, rattling off a 4-0 record with a 2.29 ERA. His success has coincided with Milwaukee’s hot streak, prompting some to label him a bigger trade deadline acquisition than any available starter. Yet, the devil, as always, is in the details, and Woodruff’s current performance is a statistical anomaly that demands a deeper dive.
The Perplexing Performance: A Statistical Tightrope Walk
Upon his return, Woodruff’s arsenal underwent noticeable changes. He introduced a cutter and swapped his traditional slider for a sweeper. While the sweeper has largely been shelved, usage of the cutter has also dipped in recent starts. More strikingly, his fastball usage has become more balanced, with his sinker and four-seamer now thrown with nearly equal frequency, a stark contrast to his previous reliance on the four-seamer. This adjustment in pitch mix, coupled with a significant decrease in velocity and lost pitch movement, sets the stage for a critical question: is this resurgence sustainable, or is it built on a foundation of unsustainable luck?
Reasons for Skepticism: The Data Doesn’t Lie (Or Does It?)
The most glaring red flags stem from several unsustainably low metrics. Woodruff is currently sporting a .143 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) and a 100% strand rate, meaning virtually every runner who reaches base is stranded, and nearly every batted ball in play has resulted in an out. For context, league averages hover around .289 for BABIP and 72.5% for strand rate. Furthermore, eight of his nine earned runs have come via home runs, suggesting a vulnerability to the long ball when batters do connect. Even with an elite Milwaukee defense behind him, Woodruff has never posted a BABIP below .269 or a strand rate above 82% in his career, aside from a shortened 2023 season. Projections suggest his BABIP will likely increase by at least 100 points and his strand rate will drop by 20% going forward.
The Velocity Drop: A Post-Surgery Reality
The most quantifiable concern is the significant dip in fastball velocity. From 2019-2022, Woodruff averaged 96.4 mph on his four-seamer. Even before his 2023 injury, it was 95.9 mph. This season, that average has fallen to 93.1 mph, dropping him from the 85th percentile in velocity in 2022 to the 29th percentile this year. This represents a transition from a strength to a potential weakness. While the long-term implications of shoulder surgery on velocity are uncertain, it’s unlikely he’ll return to his previous elite velocity levels soon.
Movement Meltdown: Stuff Models Sound the Alarm
Beyond velocity, Woodruff’s pitches have demonstrably lost movement. His four-seamer and changeup exhibit less rise and run, his curveball drops less, and his sinker runs less while rising more. Pitching models reflect this decline, with Stuff+ grades dropping from an excellent 108 in 2023 to a more pedestrian 96 this season, and PitchingBot’s grades falling from 54 to 41. These models suggest that, with the exception of the rarely used sweeper, all of Woodruff’s pitches are performing worse than last year. This aligns with his reduced 25.9% chase rate, his lowest since 2018, and a cratering groundball rate that has fallen from around 38% in previous years to 26% this season. Allowing more fly balls, particularly pulled fly balls (23.4% of batted balls in play, 92nd percentile), coupled with a career-high 9.1% barrel rate and high average exit velocity against him, indicates hitters are squaring him up more frequently.
Competition Caveat: A Softer Schedule?
It’s also important to consider the competition Woodruff has faced. His starts have predominantly come against the Marlins, Nationals, Mets, and Mariners—teams that have ranked among the bottom feeders in offensive production since July. The Marlins and Nationals, in particular, have struggled with generating power, making their success against Woodruff potentially misleading.
Reasons to Believe: The Yin to the Statistical Yang
Despite the concerning underlying metrics, there are compelling reasons to believe in Woodruff’s continued effectiveness. Firstly, he is a proven ace, a pitcher who has excelled for years. Even with the current downturn in certain peripherals, his Stuff+ grade still lands him around league average, and PitchingBot projects a 3.57 ERA, significantly better than the league average starter.
The Silver Lining: Better Luck Than You Think
While his BABIP is low, some of it can be attributed to a degree of bad luck. A career-high 17.1% of his fly balls are turning into home runs. While Statcast suggests he’s allowed a reasonable number of homers (6.5 projected vs. 7 allowed), the key takeaway is that when batters *do* make hard contact, they’re often hitting it out of the park, which inflates his home run totals but suppresses his BABIP. If you remove the home runs, his xwOBA (.262) and average exit velocity (85.9 mph) are among the league’s best, indicating that when contact is made, it’s often weak.
Strikeout Savvy: The Unseen Edge
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of Woodruff’s return is his elite strikeout and walk rates. Despite reduced velocity and a lower chase rate, his overall whiff rate is on par with his career average. Crucially, his 20.9% called strike rate and 69% first strike rate are career highs. These metrics have propelled his strikeout rate to a career-best 34.9%, while his walk rate has plummeted to 4.7%. If he can maintain these command and swing-and-miss numbers, he’ll remain a formidable pitcher even if his BABIP reverts to the mean and he continues to give up home runs.
The Pitch Mix Pivot: Deception Over Velocity
The “how” behind his continued success, particularly his elevated called strike rate on fastballs (24% for the combo, 33.5% in the zone), likely lies in his altered pitch mix and subtle adjustments. The significant horizontal separation between his four-seamer and sinker (10 inches) creates deception. When hitters pick up velocity out of the hand, they’re faced with pitches that break in opposite directions—straight, fade, or cut. This creates hesitation and leads to called strikes. Even his sinker’s increased rise, while not ideal from a movement perspective, creates greater vertical separation with his changeup, which is now exhibiting a potent 38% whiff rate and a minuscule 5.9% hard-hit rate.
A New Arsenal: Adapting to Evolve
Woodruff’s success hinges on his ability to adapt. The introduction of the cutter, even if not heavily utilized, might be playing a role in making his other fastballs more effective. The enhanced vertical separation between his sinker and changeup is a clear benefit. As he navigates a tougher schedule against teams like the Pirates, Cubs, Giants, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Rangers, the Brewers will be looking for him to continue this impressive, albeit statistically confounding, performance. While a 2.29 ERA might be an outlier, the underlying improvements in command and pitch sequencing suggest a significantly better pitcher than the numbers initially indicate.
What are your predictions for Brandon Woodruff’s performance in the latter half of the season? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
