Indonesia’s Shifting Sands: How Prabowo’s Military Expansion Signals a New Era of Control
Could Indonesia, the world’s third-largest democracy, be quietly sliding back towards a more authoritarian past? President Prabowo Subianto’s aggressive bolstering of the Indonesian military – establishing 100 new battalions with plans for 500 more, expanding special forces, and even venturing into pharmaceutical manufacturing – isn’t simply about national defense. It’s a fundamental reshaping of the relationship between the military and civilian life, echoing a controversial doctrine thought long dismantled. This isn’t just a military build-up; it’s a strategic repositioning with potentially far-reaching consequences for Indonesia’s democratic institutions and regional stability.
The Return of *Dwifungsi*: A Civilian-Military Blur
For decades, Indonesia grappled with the legacy of *Dwifungsi* – the “dual function” doctrine – which justified the military’s involvement in both security and political affairs. This system, deeply entrenched during the 32-year rule of Suharto (Prabowo’s former father-in-law), was officially dismantled after Suharto’s fall in 1998. However, recent actions under both the Widodo and now the Prabowo administrations suggest a creeping return to this model. The passage of laws allowing more military personnel in civilian posts, the creation of battalions tasked with agriculture and infrastructure, and the military’s foray into medicine production all point to a blurring of lines.
“Even without the formal dual function policy, you will see the military everywhere, having influence or control in politics, in policy, in government,” warns Made Supriatma, a visiting fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak research institute. This isn’t about preparing for external threats alone; it’s about consolidating power and extending influence across all facets of Indonesian society.
Beyond Defense: The Multifaceted Expansion
The scale of Prabowo’s military expansion is significant. A proposed defense budget of 335 trillion rupiah ($22 billion) for next year represents a 37% increase. While the government frames this as necessary to protect Indonesia’s vast archipelago – comprising 17,000 islands – analysts see a deeper strategic intent. The new battalions, while initially focused on non-combat roles like agriculture, represent a pervasive military presence at the local level.
The expansion of special forces, coupled with their deployment to restive Papua, raises particular concerns. Political risk analyst Kevin O’Rourke notes this signals “a possible heavy-handed approach” to the long-standing conflict with indigenous Papuans seeking independence. This highlights a worrying trend: the military is being positioned not just as a defender of the nation, but as a tool for internal control.
The Agricultural Experiment: A Historical Echo?
The deployment of battalions to assist in agriculture and animal husbandry is particularly controversial. As Yohanes Sulaiman, associate professor at Universitas Jenderal Achmad Yani, points out, this echoes initiatives from the 1980s that proved inefficient and counterproductive. “If you look at the role of the military, to be frank, they are not competent in doing this… If you want to be a farmer, then you have to live as a farmer.” This raises questions about the rationale behind the move – is it genuinely about food security, or a means of extending military control over vital resources and rural communities?
The Geopolitical Context: A Rising Power Asserting Itself
Indonesia’s military build-up isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s occurring against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, coupled with rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, is prompting regional powers to bolster their defenses. Indonesia, with its strategic location and vast maritime resources, is understandably keen to protect its sovereignty and economic interests. However, the manner in which Prabowo is pursuing this goal – through a significant expansion of the military’s role in civilian life – is what sets it apart.
This expansion also comes as Indonesia prepares to host the 2025 ASEAN Summit, a key diplomatic event. A stronger military presence could be seen as a signal of Indonesia’s growing regional influence, but it also risks alienating neighboring countries and raising concerns about its commitment to democratic values. See our guide on Southeast Asian Geopolitics for a deeper dive into regional dynamics.
The Democratic Backslide: A Cause for Concern?
The most significant concern surrounding Prabowo’s policies is the potential for a democratic backslide. The increasing prominence of the military in civilian affairs, coupled with a perceived distrust of the civilian bureaucracy, raises fears of a return to authoritarianism. While the government insists the military will not interfere in civilian affairs, the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. The establishment of a special taskforce within the attorney general’s office, including military officers, to reclaim land from expired palm plantations is a prime example of this encroachment.
“Prabowo has a high distrust for the civilian bureaucracy,” says Made Supriatma. “This feels like something he can do to have more control, to build up the military to influence people, or to scare people.”
The recent violent protests sparked by Prabowo’s austerity drive further underscore the potential for instability. A heavy-handed response to dissent, utilizing the expanded military apparatus, could further erode public trust and undermine democratic institutions.
Looking Ahead: Potential Scenarios
Several scenarios could unfold in the coming years. One possibility is a gradual erosion of civilian control, with the military increasingly influencing policy decisions and suppressing dissent. Another is a more overt return to *Dwifungsi*, with military personnel holding key positions in government and the economy. A third, less likely but still possible, scenario is a pushback from civil society and democratic institutions, forcing Prabowo to moderate his policies.
The outcome will depend on a number of factors, including the strength of Indonesia’s democratic institutions, the level of public opposition to Prabowo’s policies, and the geopolitical context. Understanding the historical precedents of military involvement in Indonesian politics – see Indonesia’s Political History for more information – is crucial for anticipating future developments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is *Dwifungsi* and why is it significant?
*Dwifungsi* was a doctrine that justified the Indonesian military’s involvement in both security and political affairs. Its dismantling was a key step in Indonesia’s democratization process, and its potential return is a major cause for concern.
Is Indonesia facing an immediate threat that justifies this military expansion?
While Indonesia faces legitimate security challenges, including maritime disputes and internal conflicts, analysts argue that the scale of the military expansion goes beyond what is strictly necessary for defense. The expansion appears to be driven by a broader strategic agenda.
What can be done to prevent a democratic backslide in Indonesia?
Strengthening civilian institutions, promoting transparency and accountability, and fostering a vibrant civil society are crucial steps. International pressure and support for democratic values can also play a role.
How does this impact regional stability?
Indonesia’s military expansion could contribute to an arms race in the region and exacerbate existing tensions. It also raises concerns about the country’s commitment to democratic values and its role as a regional leader.
Ultimately, Prabowo’s military expansion represents a pivotal moment for Indonesia. Whether it leads to a stronger, more secure nation or a return to authoritarianism remains to be seen. The coming years will be critical in determining the future of Indonesian democracy and its role in the Indo-Pacific region. What steps will Indonesia take to balance security concerns with the preservation of its democratic values?
