The Bolsonaro Verdict: A Warning Sign for Democracies – and a Test for Trump
Just 27% of global democracies survived for at least 20 years in the 20th century. Today, that number is dwindling. The recent conviction of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro – sentenced to over 27 years in prison for undermining the democratic process – isn’t just a South American story. It’s a stark illustration of a global trend: the rise of leaders willing to dismantle democratic institutions to cling to power, and the increasingly urgent need for robust accountability mechanisms. The case, and the reaction to it, offers a chilling preview of potential scenarios unfolding closer to home.
The Anatomy of a Democratic Backslide
Bolsonaro’s crimes weren’t simply about losing an election and refusing to accept the results. As detailed by Brazilian courts, he actively conspired to instigate a military coup and even plotted against his political opponent, current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. This wasn’t a spontaneous outburst; it was a calculated effort to erode trust in elections, weaken independent institutions – including scientific bodies – and cultivate a climate of impunity through alliances built on quid pro quo arrangements. Political scientists have described this as a system where protection from scrutiny was traded for unchecked power and personal enrichment.
Echoes of January 6th: The Post-Election Violence
The parallels to the January 6th insurrection in the United States are undeniable. Inspired by Bolsonaro’s claims of electoral fraud, his supporters stormed Brazil’s capital, Brasília, on January 8, 2023, mirroring the attack on the U.S. Capitol. This wasn’t a coincidence. Both events were fueled by a deliberate campaign to delegitimize the electoral process and incite violence among supporters. Bolsonaro’s legal peril stemmed directly from his involvement in these post-election acts, demonstrating a crucial point: accountability for inciting violence against democratic institutions is possible.
Trump’s Intervention: A Dangerous Precedent
The case took an unexpected turn when former U.S. President Donald Trump actively intervened, attempting to shield Bolsonaro from legal consequences. Trump’s August letter to Lula, threatening a 50% tariff hike on Brazilian exports, was a blatant attempt to use economic coercion to influence a foreign legal process. This action isn’t simply about loyalty to an ally; it reveals a disturbing willingness to undermine international norms and prioritize personal relationships over the rule of law. It also highlights a concerning trend: the weaponization of trade policy for political ends.
The Shared Playbook: Undermining Institutions and Vilifying Opponents
Trump and Bolsonaro share a remarkably similar playbook. Both leaders consistently attacked independent institutions, vilified their opponents, and flirted with political violence. Trump’s rhetoric about beating up protesters and Bolsonaro’s nostalgic pronouncements about military rule are not isolated incidents; they are indicative of a broader disdain for democratic norms. This shared approach to governance represents a significant threat to democratic stability worldwide. The erosion of trust in institutions, coupled with the normalization of political violence, creates a fertile ground for authoritarianism.
The Role of Independent Judiciaries: A Brazilian Lesson
What sets the Brazilian case apart is the decisive action taken by its judiciary, specifically Chief Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Despite facing intense political pressure, de Moraes pursued the investigation and prosecution of Bolsonaro with unwavering determination. This stands in stark contrast to situations in other countries, where political interference has hampered efforts to hold leaders accountable. As Susan Stokes, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, points out in her book “The Backsliders,” strong, independent judiciaries are essential for safeguarding democracy. Imagine a scenario where the U.S. Chief Justice proactively intervened to ensure accountability when the Justice Department appeared hesitant – a scenario that feels increasingly distant.
Beyond Bolsonaro: A Global Trend of Democratic Erosion
The Bolsonaro case is not an isolated incident. Across the globe, we are witnessing a worrying trend of democratic backsliding, with leaders increasingly willing to test the limits of their power and undermine the institutions that hold them accountable. From Hungary to Poland to Turkey, democracies are facing unprecedented challenges. This requires a renewed commitment to strengthening democratic institutions, promoting civic engagement, and holding leaders accountable for their actions. The future of democracy depends on it.
The Brazilian experience offers a crucial lesson: accountability matters. When leaders are held to account for their actions, it sends a powerful message that democracy is not a game, and that those who seek to undermine it will face consequences. What steps can other nations take to bolster their own democratic defenses? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
