Ukraine’s Looming Autumn Offensive: Can the “Fortress Belt” Hold?
The human cost of the war in Ukraine is now measured in fractions of lives. Ukrainian commanders estimate that for every five soldiers sent on a reconnaissance mission behind Russian lines, only one returns unscathed – a chilling statistic that underscores the brutal attrition facing Kyiv’s forces. As fall approaches, Russia is poised to intensify its campaign for the Donetsk region, a critical area representing Ukraine’s industrial heartland, and a territory Moscow has long coveted. The question isn’t if Russia will attack, but how, and whether Ukraine can withstand the renewed pressure.
The Shifting Tactics: From Storming Cities to Severing Supply Lines
The battle for Donetsk is entering a new phase. After the devastating, months-long struggle for Bakhmut and the subsequent fighting around Chasiv Yar, Russia appears to have learned a costly lesson: direct assaults on fortified cities are a meat grinder. As Colonel Pavlo Yurchuk, defending a city within Ukraine’s “fortress belt,” explains, “Large cities turn into vast cemeteries for their army.” Instead, Russian forces are now prioritizing flanking maneuvers and infiltration tactics, aiming to encircle key Ukrainian strongholds like Lyman and Kostiantynivka, rather than directly storming them.
This strategy involves sending small units to disrupt supply routes, occupy abandoned positions, and generally sow chaos behind Ukrainian lines. While these incursions yield only tactical gains – described by Yurchuk as “slow” and insufficient for large-scale encirclement – they are taking a heavy toll on Ukrainian manpower and resources. The increased use of drones and glide bombs further exacerbates the situation, allowing Russia to strike at troops and supplies with relative impunity.
Lyman: The Key to Sloviansk and a Potential Breaking Point
The town of Lyman, a crucial logistics hub with rail connections and robust infrastructure, is currently at the epicenter of the fighting in northern Donetsk. Its recapture by Ukraine in autumn 2022 was a significant victory, but now it’s under intense pressure. If Lyman falls, Russia could potentially cross the Siverskyi Donets River, opening a path towards Sloviansk – a strategically important city that would represent a major blow to Ukrainian defenses.
However, Yurchuk remains confident, arguing that Russia’s historical struggles with complex, deep flanking operations will ultimately lead to their failure. He believes Russia will be unable to adequately supply and control any significant penetrations. This optimism, while understandable, is tempered by the increasingly dire situation on the ground.
The Crisis Within: Manpower Shortages and Systemic Inefficiencies
Beyond the tactical challenges, Ukraine faces a deeper, more systemic crisis. Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive Foundation, paints a stark picture of troop shortages, inefficient command structures, and inadequate training. He reveals that many brigades listed as fully staffed on paper can only field a fraction of their reported personnel in combat – not due to Russian superiority, but to internal mismanagement. This leads to uneven distribution of forces, with some units overstretched while others remain underutilized.
“It’s a systemic flaw we can neither admit nor fix,” Chmut states, highlighting the difficulty of addressing these issues within the current Ukrainian military structure. The reliance on technology, volunteer efforts, and exploiting enemy weaknesses are temporary fixes, he warns, insufficient to address the long-term challenges.
A Grim Outlook: The Long-Term Trends and the Risk of Escalation
Analysts like Nick Reynolds of the Royal United Services Institute echo Chmut’s concerns, emphasizing the sustained pressure on Ukrainian forces. The fall of the “fortress belt” would not only result in significant territorial losses but also displace thousands of civilians and inflict further economic damage. Moreover, even the complete capture of the Donetsk region is unlikely to signal the end of the conflict. Reynolds believes Russia has no clear indication of stopping there.
The overall trend, as Chmut succinctly puts it, is “unfavorable for Ukraine.” Without significant changes in military management, a surge in technological support, or a major geopolitical shift, Ukraine faces a protracted and increasingly difficult struggle. The longer the war drags on, the greater the risk of Russia gaining the upper hand, not through spectacular breakthroughs, but through a relentless, grinding war of attrition. The Royal United Services Institute provides further analysis on the evolving dynamics of the conflict.
What will be the deciding factor in the coming months? Will Ukraine be able to address its internal challenges and secure the necessary resources to withstand Russia’s renewed offensive, or will the “fortress belt” crumble under the weight of relentless pressure? Share your predictions in the comments below!
