Southeast Asia’s Fracturing Future: Why Two Regions Are Emerging, and What It Means for the U.S.
The idea of a unified Southeast Asia is increasingly a myth. While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) fosters cooperation, a deeper look reveals a region fundamentally split – not by ideology as during the Cold War, but by economic and geopolitical gravity. This divergence isn’t just academic; it’s reshaping the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, and the United States faces critical choices about where and how to engage.
The Two Southeast Asias: A Continental Shift
For decades, policymakers have treated Southeast Asia as a single entity. However, the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Influence Index demonstrates a clear reality: two distinct networks are solidifying. A continental bloc – Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam – is increasingly aligned with China. Simultaneously, a maritime group – Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore – maintains broader international connections and strategically hedges between the U.S. and China. The Philippines, an outlier, leans heavily on non-Asian partners, particularly the United States.
China’s Expanding Footprint in Mainland Southeast Asia
Geography plays a crucial role. Rugged terrain historically shielded continental Southeast Asia from complete Chinese control, as anthropologist James Scott detailed in his work on “Zomia.” But modern infrastructure is dismantling those barriers. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is physically connecting these nations, exemplified by the 2021 rail link between southern China and Vientiane, Laos. This isn’t simply about trade; it’s about leverage. Laos, heavily indebted to China due to BRI projects, now sees soaring trade volumes – often involving Chinese-leased land and agricultural exports. However, this economic integration comes at a cost. Laos’s special economic zones have become havens for illicit activities, including drug trafficking and cybercrime, effectively eroding its sovereignty.
Even Vietnam, traditionally wary of Beijing, is attracting significant Chinese investment, driven by the U.S.-China trade war. Companies are relocating supply chains to Vietnam, particularly in the north, shifting the country’s economic center. This trend is likely to continue as tariffs on Vietnamese products remain lower than those on Chinese goods.
Maritime Southeast Asia: A Hub of Diverse Partnerships
In contrast, maritime Southeast Asia – encompassing Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore – remains far more open to diverse partnerships. These nations, straddling vital shipping lanes, have historically engaged with numerous global players. As journalist Philip Bowring termed it, this region is “Nusantaria” – a vast maritime expanse inherently connected to the world. While China is investing in infrastructure projects here, such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, these haven’t yet created the same level of direct connectivity to China seen in the continental region.
The South China Sea dispute underscores the importance of this maritime space. China’s expansive claims, rejected by the UN tribunal in 2016, have prompted countries worldwide to support freedom of navigation. Maritime Southeast Asian nations, facing direct pressure from China’s maritime encroachment, are actively seeking security cooperation with the U.S., Australia, and Japan. The U.S., in turn, utilizes these partnerships to maintain access within the “first island chain” and counter Chinese influence.
The Implications for U.S. Strategy
The diverging trajectories of these two Southeast Asian subregions demand a nuanced U.S. approach. Simply treating the region as a whole will prove ineffective. Allowing continental Southeast Asia to fall firmly within China’s sphere of influence – a tempting option for a U.S. seeking to reduce international commitments – carries significant risks. It would cede strategic ground and potentially embolden Beijing elsewhere.
Instead, Washington should focus on strengthening ties with countries on the margins of China’s influence: Vietnam and Thailand. Vietnam, despite its continental characteristics, is increasingly embracing a maritime outlook, evidenced by its upgraded strategic partnership with the U.S. in 2023. However, past U.S. policies, like the Trump administration’s one-sided tariff negotiations with Hanoi, have damaged goodwill. Thailand, a long-standing Cold War ally, has drifted closer to Beijing amid democratic backsliding. Reinvesting in this alliance, and avoiding punitive actions like recent sanctions, is crucial.
Navigating a Complex Landscape
Successfully navigating this complex landscape requires recognizing that **Southeast Asia** isn’t a monolith. A strategy focused on bolstering the independence and agency of maritime nations, while simultaneously engaging constructively with Vietnam and Thailand, offers the best path forward. This approach will not only preserve U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific but also help ensure that Southeast Asia remains a region of open opportunity and strategic balance. The future of the region – and the broader Indo-Pacific – hinges on understanding and responding to this fundamental fracture.
What steps do you think the U.S. should prioritize to maintain its influence in Southeast Asia? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
