Guinea’s Election Gambit: Why Doumbouya’s Power Grab Could Ignite a New Crisis
Guinea’s scheduled December elections, ostensibly marking the end of four years of military rule, are rapidly revealing themselves as a carefully orchestrated attempt by General Mamadi Doumbouya to cement his power. With opposition parties suspended, a new constitution conveniently lifting term limits, and a history of repression echoing that of his predecessor, Alpha Condé, Guinea is teetering on the brink of a renewed political crisis – and a worrying precedent is being set for democratic backsliding across the Sahel.
From Coup Leaders to Constitution Rewriters: A Familiar Pattern
General Doumbouya seized power in September 2021, initially welcomed by many Guineans frustrated by Condé’s controversial decision to seek a third term through a constitutional amendment. Doumbouya himself condemned the “instrumentalisation of justice” and “trampling of citizen’s rights” under Condé. However, the current trajectory suggests a disturbing mirroring of the very tactics he once denounced. The recent referendum, approving a new constitution with a staggering 89% of the vote on an 86% turnout, is particularly concerning. Such figures, achieved amidst a crackdown on dissent and the suspension of key opposition parties – the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and the Rally of the Guinean People – raise serious questions about the legitimacy of the process.
The Fragility of Guinea’s Political Landscape
The roots of Guinea’s instability run deep. The 2021 coup wasn’t an isolated event; it was a culmination of years of political tension, ethnic divisions, and a perceived lack of accountability. Condé’s attempts to cling to power, despite widespread opposition, created a volatile environment ripe for military intervention. Now, Doumbouya appears to be repeating this dangerous cycle. The death in detention of General Sadiba Koulibaly, a former junta heavyweight, in June 2024, underscores the internal fractures within the military itself – a critical vulnerability that could easily be exploited. This internal division, coupled with the suppression of political opposition, creates a breeding ground for further instability.
Constitutional Maneuvering and the Erosion of Democratic Norms
The constitutional changes are the most blatant indicator of Doumbouya’s intentions. By removing the restrictions that prevented him from running for president, he has effectively cleared the path for a bid for the presidency. This move, while strategically calculated, risks alienating the very population that initially supported his rise to power. The manipulation of the constitution, a tactic previously employed by Condé, demonstrates a disregard for democratic principles and a willingness to prioritize personal power over national stability. This is a dangerous signal, not just for Guinea, but for the wider region, where democratic institutions are already under strain.
Beyond Guinea: A Regional Ripple Effect?
Guinea’s situation is not unique. Across the Sahel, we’re witnessing a concerning trend of military governments delaying transitions to civilian rule, manipulating constitutional processes, and suppressing dissent. The example set by Doumbouya could embolden other military leaders to follow suit, further eroding democratic gains in the region. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has faced challenges in effectively addressing these issues, and a firm stance on Guinea is crucial to prevent further backsliding. Crisis Group’s analysis highlights the importance of regional pressure and targeted sanctions to promote democratic governance.
The Role of External Actors
International actors, including France and the United States, have a role to play in supporting a genuine transition to democracy in Guinea. However, simply condemning the actions of the military regime is insufficient. A more nuanced approach is needed, one that combines diplomatic pressure with targeted assistance to civil society organizations and independent media. Strengthening these institutions is essential to building a more resilient and democratic society.
The upcoming elections in Guinea are unlikely to be free and fair under the current circumstances. The suspension of opposition parties, the biased constitutional changes, and the climate of fear all point to a predetermined outcome. The real question is not whether Doumbouya will win, but whether his victory will further entrench authoritarian rule and exacerbate the underlying tensions that threaten to destabilize Guinea – and potentially the wider region. The path forward requires a commitment to genuine dialogue, respect for democratic principles, and a willingness to address the root causes of Guinea’s political crisis. What are your predictions for the future of democracy in Guinea? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
