The Future is Now: Why Investing in ‘Impossible’ Tech is the Smartest Move
Conventional venture capital chases predictable returns. But a growing movement, led by funds like Deep Future, is betting on the seemingly impossible – technologies decades from profitability, yet showing promising results in the lab. This isn’t reckless speculation; it’s a strategic recognition that the biggest breakthroughs often emerge from the fringes, and that the window to capitalize on truly disruptive innovation is rapidly closing.
Beyond the Valley: Funding the Far Future
Deep Future, founded by veteran inventor Pablos Holman, isn’t looking for the next social media app. They’re seeking ideas that traditional investors dismiss as too risky, too long-term, or simply too outlandish. Their investment ceiling of $500,000 is deliberately modest, enough to build prototypes and attract further funding, but not enough to sustain a company indefinitely. This forces a relentless focus on demonstrable progress and a constant search for validation.
Holman’s background is a testament to this approach. Having spent over a decade at Intellectual Ventures Lab (IVL) – the ambitious research arm of Microsoft – and contributing to projects at Blue Origin, he’s seen firsthand how fundamental research can lay the groundwork for future revolutions. He understands that innovation isn’t linear, and that the most impactful discoveries often arise from unexpected places.
Deep Earth Nukes and the Reshaping of Energy
One striking example of Deep Future’s portfolio is Deep Fission, a company pioneering small, subterranean nuclear reactors. These 15 MW pressurized-water reactors, designed to be installed a mile underground, drastically reduce containment costs – by up to 80% – leveraging the Earth’s bedrock as a natural shield. The design simplifies decommissioning and offers a compact footprint ideal for powering data centers and remote locations.
Deep Fission’s acceptance into the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program signals a significant shift in the energy landscape. As Holman points out, regulatory changes, spurred by executive orders and evolving World Bank policies, are creating a more favorable environment for nuclear innovation. This is particularly crucial, as evidenced by the challenges faced by Bill Gates’ TerraPower, which has struggled for over 15 years to navigate regulatory hurdles. Deep Fission’s simpler design offers a faster path to approval, and the company is already planning test drilling in Texas, Utah, and Kansas, aiming for commercial power generation by 2029.
From E-Waste to Gold: Circular Economy Innovation
The pursuit of radical innovation isn’t limited to energy. Deep Future is also backing ventures that address pressing environmental challenges. DEScycle, born from research at the University of Leicester, has developed a groundbreaking process for extracting precious metals – including gold – from electronic waste using Deep Eutectic Solvents (DES). Unlike traditional methods that rely on toxic chemicals and high temperatures, DES utilizes benign compounds like choline chloride and citric acid, offering a sustainable and environmentally friendly alternative.
After initial seed funding from Deep Future, DEScycle secured a major investment from Mitsubishi Corporation and a €5 million grant from the EU, demonstrating the commercial viability of this technology. This highlights a crucial point: even seemingly ‘long-shot’ ideas can attract significant investment when they address real-world problems with innovative solutions.
The Holy Grail and the Limits of Physics
Not all of Deep Future’s investments are guaranteed successes. Some ventures push the boundaries of scientific possibility, venturing into areas that may never yield practical results. Harold “Sonny” White’s work on the Casimir effect and the potential for an everlasting battery, stemming from his research at NASA, exemplifies this approach. While the claims are ambitious – and currently lack peer-reviewed validation – the potential payoff is enormous. NASA’s own research into advanced propulsion demonstrates a willingness to explore even the most unconventional ideas.
The Importance of ’10x’ Thinking
Holman’s philosophy, distilled from his experiences at HP, IVL, and Blue Origin, is simple: incremental improvements are valuable, but transformative breakthroughs require “10x” thinking. He’s not interested in making inkjet printers 1% better; he wants to see ideas that fundamentally change the game. This requires a willingness to embrace risk, challenge conventional wisdom, and invest in technologies that may not pay off for decades.
This approach isn’t just about technological advancement; it’s about building a future where bold ideas have a chance to flourish. By funding the ‘impossible,’ Deep Future is creating a space for innovation that traditional venture capital often overlooks. What seemingly outlandish technologies will define the next era of progress? The answer, it seems, lies in the willingness to invest in the long shot.
What radical technologies do you believe deserve more funding, even if the path to profitability is unclear? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
