Madagascar Leadership Crisis: Alleged Coup Attempt Underway

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October 12, 2025

Antananarivo, Madagascar – A tense situation is unfolding in Madagascar as a faction within the armed forces asserts control, alleging an attempt to illegally seize power. This progress follows escalating demonstrations, initially sparked by grievances over essential services, but now reflecting broader discontent with the government of President Andry Rajoelina.

Power struggle Emerges

President Rajoelina’s office released a statement denouncing what it described as an unlawful effort to overthrow the government. Simultaneously, a military unit known as CAPSAT announced it had assumed leadership of all branches of the Malagasy armed forces – army, air force, and navy. This unit played a pivotal role in the political upheaval of 2009 that brought Rajoelina to power initially.

Roots of the Unrest

the current wave of protests began on September 25th, initially centering on public frustrations regarding interruptions in water and electricity supply. However,the demonstrations quickly broadened to encompass resentment over persistent unemployment,allegations of corruption,and the rising cost of living,issues that plague a nation where 75% of the population lives below the poverty line,according to the World Bank.

Protesters Seize Key Location

Demonstrators have converged on the central square in Antananarivo for the second consecutive day. Notably, they succeeded in gaining access to May 13 Square – a historically important focal point for previous uprisings – a breakthrough celebrated by protesters. One demonstrator reportedly proclaimed, “We’re happy and relieved. It’s a great victory. We won’t stop the struggle until President Rajoelina resigns.”

Military Support and Clashes

The momentum of the protests received an unexpected boost when elements of CAPSAT openly sided with the demonstrators on Saturday, departing their barracks to join the movement. The unit had previously condemned the use of force against protesters by other security forces. Reports surfaced of exchanges of gunfire at a CAPSAT installation on both Saturday and Sunday, and the unit reported one soldier was fatally shot by gendarmes on Saturday.

International Response and Travel Disruptions

Air France has temporarily suspended flights to Antananarivo, citing safety concerns, until at least Tuesday. This decision highlights the growing instability and potential risks within the country. The UN human rights chief, volker Türk, has called for restraint from security forces, urging them to avoid excessive force in quelling the protests and has cited reports of at least 22 deaths and 100 injuries. president Rajoelina disputes these figures, claiming 12 confirmed fatalities, all described as looters and vandals.

Ancient Context and Ongoing Vulnerability

Madagascar has a history marked by political instability as gaining independence in 1960. The 2009 uprising that led to the ousting of then-president Marc Ravalomanana serves as a stark reminder of the potential for widespread societal unrest. Rajoelina’s return to power following the 2018 election has not alleviated the underlying economic and social issues fueling current protests.

Key Event	Date
Protests Begin	September 25, 2025
CAPSAT Claims Control	October 11, 2025
Air France Suspends Flights	October 11, 2025

Understanding Madagascar’s Challenges

Madagascar’s persistent struggles with poverty and political instability are underpinned by a complex interplay of factors. These include a reliance on agriculture vulnerable to climate change, limited infrastructure, and deep-rooted issues of corruption and governance. The World Bank provides detailed analysis of Madagascar’s economic and social development challenges.

Did you Know? Madagascar is the world’s fourth-largest island, boasting unique biodiversity, but its resources have not translated into widespread prosperity for its citizens.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is the current situation in Madagascar? The nation is experiencing a political crisis with an army unit claiming control amid ongoing protests against the government.
• What are the main grievances driving these protests? Protests initially focused on basic services, but have expanded to include concerns about unemployment, corruption, and the cost of living.
• Who is CAPSAT and what role are they playing? CAPSAT is a military unit that has taken control of the armed forces and has shown support for the protesters.
• What impact is the unrest having on travel to Madagascar? Air France has suspended flights to Antananarivo due to safety concerns.
• What is the historical context of political instability in Madagascar? Madagascar has a history of political upheaval and has experienced multiple uprisings as independence.
• What is President Rajoelina’s response to the crisis? He has condemned the attempt to seize power and called for unity in defense of the constitutional order.
• What is the poverty rate in Madagascar? Approximately 75% of the population lives below the poverty line.

What are your thoughts on the unfolding events in Madagascar? Do you believe external intervention coudl help stabilize the situation?

What are the potential implications of intermittent internet access in Antananarivo for verifying information related to the alleged coup attempt?

Reports of Instability and Allegations

On October 12,2025,Madagascar is facing a significant political crisis with reports surfacing of a potential coup attempt against President Andry Rajoelina. While details remain fragmented and official confirmation is limited, multiple sources indicate heightened military activity in Antananarivo, the capital city. The situation is evolving rapidly, prompting concerns about political stability and the future of Madagascar’s democratic processes. Key terms circulating include “Madagascar coup,” “political unrest Madagascar,” and “Rajoelina goverment.”

timeline of Events (October 12, 2025)

The unfolding crisis can be summarized by the following events:

* early morning (06:00 EAT): Increased military presence reported near key government buildings, including the Presidential Palace (Ambohitsorohitra) and national radio and television headquarters.

* Mid-Morning (09:00 EAT): Unconfirmed reports of gunfire near the 1st Battalion of Paratroopers (BIRP) barracks in Antananarivo. Social media is flooded with images and videos, though verification is proving challenging.

* Late morning (11:00 EAT): Government spokesperson issues a brief statement acknowledging “isolated incidents” but downplaying any organized attempt to overthrow the government. The statement called for calm and assured citizens that the situation is under control.

* Afternoon (13:00 EAT): Several opposition leaders have publicly accused elements within the military of orchestrating a coup, alleging dissatisfaction with President Rajoelina’s handling of the economy and recent political appointments.

* Ongoing: Internet access in Antananarivo is reportedly intermittent, raising concerns about potential censorship and control of information.

Key Players and Potential Motivations

Understanding the key players is crucial to analyzing the situation.

* Andry Rajoelina: The current President of Madagascar,initially came to power through a coup in 2009. His current administration has faced criticism regarding corruption,economic mismanagement,and a perceived lack of openness.

* Opposition Leaders: A fragmented opposition, including figures like Marc Ravalomanana (a former president) and others, have consistently challenged Rajoelina’s authority. They claim the current government is authoritarian and unresponsive to the needs of the Malagasy people.

* Military Factions: Reports suggest a split within the military,with some factions allegedly dissatisfied with Rajoelina’s leadership and potentially aligning with opposition forces. The role of the High Command remains unclear.

* International Actors: The African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC), and major international partners (France, the United States, European Union) are closely monitoring the situation. Potential interventions or sanctions are being considered.

Motivations behind the alleged coup attempt are complex and likely multi-faceted:

* Economic Grievances: Madagascar’s economy remains fragile, with high levels of poverty and unemployment. Discontent over economic policies could be fueling unrest.

* Political Marginalization: Opposition groups feel excluded from the political process and accuse Rajoelina of consolidating power.

* Military Discontent: Allegations of corruption within the military and dissatisfaction with leadership appointments may have triggered a breakdown in loyalty.

* Past Precedent: Madagascar has a history of political instability and coups, creating a climate where such actions are seen as a potential solution to political problems.

Impact on Madagascar and the Region

The unfolding crisis has significant implications:

* Political Instability: A successful coup woudl further destabilize Madagascar, potentially leading to prolonged political turmoil and violence.

* Economic Disruption: The crisis will likely deter foreign investment and disrupt economic activity, exacerbating existing economic challenges.

* Humanitarian Concerns: Political unrest could lead to human rights abuses and displacement of populations.

* regional Security: instability in Madagascar could have ripple effects throughout the Indian Ocean region, impacting trade routes and regional security.

* Tourism Impact: Madagascar’s vital tourism sector is likely to suffer significantly due to safety concerns and travel advisories. Search terms like “Madagascar travel safety” are expected to increase.

Interaction Challenges & Information Warfare

A key aspect of the current crisis is the difficulty in obtaining accurate information.

* Internet Restrictions: Intermittent internet access suggests an attempt to control the flow of information.

* Social Media manipulation: The spread of misinformation and disinformation on social media platforms is complicating efforts to assess the situation.

* Media Censorship: Concerns have been raised about potential censorship of independent media outlets.

* Language Barriers: Accessing information in Malagasy (the national language) can be challenging for international observers. Utilizing tools like Google Translate (https://support.google.com/translate/answer/6350850?hl=en&co=GENIE.Platform%3DDesktop) can be helpful, but requires careful verification of translated content.

Historical Context: Coups and Political Transitions in Madagascar

Madagascar has experienced several periods of political instability and coups throughout its history:

* 1972: