Poland’s Housing Market Faces Regional disparities as Construction Slows
Warsaw – A stark geographical divide is reshaping Poland’s housing landscape. New data reveals a pronounced concentration of construction activity around major urban centers, while numerous counties experience a near-complete absence of new development. This uneven distribution of housing projects is raising concerns about accessibility and potential price increases nationwide.
The Rise of Agglomeration
Recent reports indicate a growing trend of urban agglomeration in Polish housing construction. Development activity varies substantially from region to region, with some areas booming with new estates, while others remain largely untouched by investment. Analysis shows that as many as 73 counties across Poland have become “developer white spots” – areas without a single building permit issued for new housing projects during the first half of 2025.
Investment Concentrated Around Major Cities
The majority of new construction is overwhelmingly focused around Poland’s largest cities. Over the past decade (2014-2024), the Poznań district experienced a massive 5.05 million square meters increase in usable housing space-exceeding the total housing area of Olsztyn (4.97 million square meters).Similar patterns are observed in the Kraków poviat, with a 3.04 million square meter increase, surpassing the total area in Elbląg, and in the Piaseczno poviat, adding 2.83 million square meters-greater than Słupsk’s total area of 2.55 million square meters.
In contrast, counties like Hrubieszów and Siemiatycze have only added approximately 20,000 square meters of usable space over the same ten-year period. This disparity extends beyond eastern Poland, with areas such as Pyrzyce (West Pomeranian Voivodeship), Międzyrzecz (Lubusz Voivodeship), and Turek (Greater poland Voivodeship) also showing minimal development.
Decline in Private Home building
The trend extends beyond developer-led projects to include private home construction.The top 20 counties account for just 19% of all private house building permits. Even more concerning,50 counties and cities have issued permits for only 30 or fewer houses. Experts at RynekPierwotny.pl note that a lack of both developer activity and private construction signals a lack of attractiveness for settlement in these areas.
| Region | Usable Area Increase (2014-2024) | Comparison City |
|---|---|---|
| Poznań District | 5.05 million sq m | Olsztyn (Total Area) |
| Kraków Poviat | 3.04 million sq m | Elbląg (Total Area) |
| Piaseczno Poviat | 2.83 million sq m | Słupsk (Total area) |
Fewer Permits, Potential Price Increases?
The overall number of building permits has also decreased. Approximately 75,800 apartments and houses received permits in the first half of 2025, a significant drop from the 102,100 permits issued during the same period last year. Experts predict this decline in supply could put upward pressure on housing prices.
Tomasz Kaleta, Managing Director at Develia, stated that high construction costs, land scarcity, and lengthy administrative procedures are not expected to cause prices to fall.Rather, a period of stabilization with gradual growth – averaging 1-2% above inflation – is more likely, particularly in major cities and desirable locations. The Polish development market is seeing consolidation, with investment activity increasingly focused around urban centers.
Joanna Chojecka of Robyg Group explained that diminishing growth rates in new investment are due to increased costs, limited land, regulatory uncertainty, and investor caution related to high interest rates and demographic shifts. Witold Kikolski of MS Waryński Development SA added that new supply will be more selective, prioritizing prime locations and projects catering to real buyer needs.
Understanding the Underlying Factors
Several factors contribute to this regional disparity. Differences in the growth trajectories of former and current voivodeship cities play a role,disadvantaging cities that lost their regional capital status. Employment opportunities and wage levels are also significant drivers,with individuals gravitating towards cities offering better prospects.Ultimately, housing patterns reflect broader economic and social inequalities within Poland. The availability of financing,changes in government regulations,and the overall economic climate will continue to shape the future of Poland’s housing market. According to Eurostat data from Q3 2024, housing prices in the EU increased by an average of 6.9% year-on-year, indicating a broader trend of rising costs.
Frequently Asked Questions about poland’s Housing Market
- What is causing the uneven distribution of housing construction in Poland? The concentration of development around major cities is driven by better job opportunities, higher wages, and a greater availability of amenities.
- Will housing prices in Poland continue to rise? Experts predict a period of stabilization with gradual growth, averaging 1-2% above inflation, primarily in major cities.
- What is a “developer white spot”? This refers to counties where no building permits have been issued for new housing projects during a specific period, indicating a lack of development activity.
- how dose private construction compare to developer-led projects? The decline in private home building mirrors the trend in developer activity, suggesting a broader slowdown in housing construction.
- What factors are contributing to the decline in building permits? High construction costs, land scarcity, lengthy administrative procedures, and investor caution are all contributing to the decrease in permits.
what do you think will be the long-term effects of this regional housing disparity? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
