The Looming Climate Migration Crisis: How 2070 Might Look
By 2070, over one billion people could be displaced by the effects of climate change, according to recent projections. This isn’t a future scenario; it’s a rapidly approaching reality demanding immediate and complex solutions. Susannah Fisher’s forthcoming book, “Sink or Swim,” paints a stark picture of a world grappling with mass migration driven by environmental collapse, and the choices – often agonizing – that will define our future. The question isn’t if climate migration will happen, but how we will manage it, and whether we can do so equitably and sustainably.
The Fractured World of 2070: “Hab” Zones and Border Walls
Fisher’s vision of 2070 isn’t one of seamless international cooperation, but of increasing fragmentation. The world is divided, not just by wealth or ideology, but by habitability. “Habitable zones” – areas still capable of supporting large populations – become heavily guarded, with nations like the U.S. erecting fortified borders to keep out climate refugees. The southwestern states, ravaged by drought, become a chilling example, turning against each other in desperate competition for dwindling water resources. This isn’t simply about physical barriers; it’s about a hardening of political will and a retreat from humanitarian principles.
Outside these zones, a different reality emerges. Those left behind, in areas deemed “nonhab,” increasingly bypass traditional governance structures, focusing instead on localized solutions and even controversial geoengineering projects in a desperate attempt to reclaim their lands. The United Nations, while still providing basic aid like food and water, struggles to address the root causes of displacement, particularly the slow-onset changes that render regions uninhabitable over time. Regional agreements offer limited relief, primarily for immediate disasters, but fall short of providing long-term solutions for those facing a permanently altered environment.
Climate Passports and Fossil Fuel Accountability: A Glimmer of Progress?
Amidst the bleakness, Fisher highlights potential pathways toward a more just response. One compelling scenario involves “climate passports,” issued in the wake of extreme weather events demonstrably worsened by climate change. Following a devastating hurricane in a Caribbean nation, the government, backed by UN certification, grants citizens the right to relocate to countries historically responsible for carbon emissions. Crucially, this is coupled with financial compensation from fossil fuel companies, forced to pay out after landmark legal cases acknowledging their contribution to the crisis.
This model, while still theoretical, represents a significant shift in responsibility. It moves beyond simply providing aid to acknowledging a debt owed to those most vulnerable to climate impacts. Relocation grants offer a lifeline, allowing individuals to rebuild their lives and pursue education or training while their home communities recover. However, the success of such a system hinges on the willingness of wealthier nations to accept climate migrants and the effective enforcement of accountability measures against polluting industries.
Community-Led Relocation and the Rise of “Network Nations”
Fisher’s research also showcases the power of community-led relocation. In the U.K., a coastal community in Norfolk, facing constant flooding, successfully negotiated a government-funded relocation to the Peak District. The process wasn’t without its challenges – many residents initially resisted leaving their ancestral lands – but through careful planning and community involvement, a viable solution was found. Similarly, in Bangladesh, families displaced by cyclones and flooding are finding opportunities in secondary cities, accessing retraining programs and maintaining ties to their original communities.
Perhaps the most innovative concept Fisher explores is the emergence of “network nations,” exemplified by small island developing states. These nations are investing in floating platforms and land reclamation projects, while simultaneously fostering a global diaspora that maintains strong cultural and economic connections to the homeland. Citizens live and work across multiple locations, contributing to both their island nation and their adopted countries, creating a resilient and interconnected network of support. The UN Development Programme offers further insights into the complexities of climate-induced migration.
Preparing for the Inevitable: A Call for Proactive Planning
The scenarios presented in “Sink or Swim” are not predictions, but thought experiments designed to force us to confront the difficult choices ahead. The future of climate migration isn’t predetermined. It will be shaped by the decisions we make today – as individuals, as communities, and as governments. Ignoring the problem, building walls, and clinging to outdated notions of national sovereignty will only exacerbate the crisis. Instead, we must embrace proactive planning, prioritize climate justice, and foster a spirit of global cooperation. The time to prepare for a world on the move is now. What steps do you think your community should take to prepare for potential climate-related displacement? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
